Charlie is saying 4.5m for Napoleon. I would have thought few 100K lower. Wish by my calc is around 4m today and I feel missing 40m over 5 day weekend. Napoleon should do low 30s while Hunger Games should do low 40s.

Strange World did $18,855,156 last year over the 5 days. So it's not an outright flop for Wish but could struggle to get to $100M if it doens't get a Christmas bump.

What a boring post Barbenheimer box office the last 4 months. Taylor and Freddie really are the only movies that feel like they've not done average or bad. Ninja Turtles did solid but not a breakout.

I feel like if I put in a ChatGPT prompt on what a boring box office season looks like, we did worse than whatever AI would come up with. If Swift didn't release her concert movie Freddie would have been the only real highlight.

Dec. desperately needs a mega breakout of something.

In hindsight - perhaps Indy or MI7 should have waited for Christmas. Perhaps they would have anchored the season and made much more than they did. or Perhaps not.

Trolls could end up overtaking Wish sometime soon.

Well from a certain perspective the Marvels being an almost impossible bomb is an entertaining outcome

Go Hunger Games. A far cry from the other films (and may fall below the first OW's) but it honestly could've been worse.

Thursday from Charlie/BOR and 5day estimates

HG $5.9M/$41M
Napoleon $4.38M/$30M
Wish $3.8M/$33M
Thanksgiving $2M

Wish doing a $20.9M 3day over Thanksgiving is embarrassing. Napoleon's 3day would be at $17.9M. HG would be at $27.82M (-37.6%). If it follows Strange World's 5day pattern from its first two days (2.813X multiplier), would get to $34.0M for the 5day. It also had a much worse Thursday drop than Strange World.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office ... 235634036/

deadline's projections are all over the place. Wish is not making 38m with 20.5m 3 day weekend.

Would be something to see a horror movie have the best hold this weekend. It can thank its title for that!

Happy for Hunger Games emerging this fall, looking forward to seeing it.

Wish joins the number of crazy bombs this year. Disney’s first half of the year doesn’t even look like that bad and then it’s just death with Haunted Mansion-The Marvels-Wish in a row.

I don't know what symbolism it has that Disney's 100th year anniversary celebration this year, celebrated October 16th, 2023 has been so notoriously bad for them. Q4 in particular. 101 can only do better at the House of Mouse.

Granted WB's 100th year anniversary also went by in a FLASH.

Reviews and Audience wom are killing Wish. Won't come anywhere near 100m.

Napoleon as well. If they both had better reception we could’ve seen a 50m 5-day and 40m 5-day for Wish and Napoleon respectively

Marvels - 1.3m. Probably good enough for high 80s finish. Next weekend it will shed tons of screens and drop big. December is not looking great atm. Only Color Purple PS looks good for Christmas day(nothing beyond that). Wonka and Aquaman have started bad. Wonka I am hoping for uber strong reviews to boost its BO. its still my bet for biggest movie in last quarter.

Napoleon's doing much closer to expectations.

I never believed in Wonka, just feels like the wrong year for its tone of movie. I’d bet on Illumination wins again for December.

Wish being painfully meh sucks. Trolls also looks to be doing better business around me.

Trolls and Wish hovering just under or over $100M points to me to a Migration mega breakout. Wonka could also break out but if Sing 2 could do $162M in 2021 during a pandemic feels like Migration should clear $200M.

Illumination is the current ruler of the animation box office world.
-13/13 on $100M+ movies
-12/13 for $159M+ movies ($188M+ adjusted).
-Hop is the only movie that missed $150M but that was 12 years ago (now adjusts to $146M).
-Sing 2 likely would have done $200M+ if not for omicron.
-12/13 for $188M+ movies (adjusted).
-10/13 of their movies have $275M+ adjusted.

Having the Migration trailer in front of the $575M grossing Mario also gives it a lot of exposure. Trolls + Wish combined gross won't be that far from Illumination's lowest grossing movie adjusted (Hop $146M, Trolls/Wish $170M?).

I am fairly confident that Wonka and Migration both do 175m+.

Despite costing 200 mil I think Apple can be happy with Napoleon, I bet it makes a bunch of money internationally (apparently its audience scores in Europe are higher than the US, just seems like one of those movies they’re more into) and even it falls a bit short of being worth its budget on that alone, they still get value out of people watching it on streaming in the US and outside. I like the idea of these international countries where Apple is getting smoked by Netflix right now being lured in by the recognizable Napoleon draw.

There's great value in releasing things like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon theatrically, as they will be viewed as real movies and actually be a draw to Apple TV, rather than their Direct to streaming films which are forgotten as soon as they're released.

Migration presales have been on for past few days and there is no reason for these movies to have early presales. Seems to have the start of Ruby Gillman so far !!! We have to see close to release if family audience is excited for this. i dont see it getting great reviews are anything.

Friday
1) Hunger Games - 11.4m
2) Napoleon - 8.4
3) Wish - 8
4) Trolls - 7.1
5) Thanksgiving - 2.7
6) Marvels - 2.4

Pretty meh Thanksgiving weekend for sure.

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

Still better than the last few Thanksgiving’s but Hollywood hasn’t been scheduling this month the best the last few years.

Seems like Wish could still save some face if it has a big Saturday and then holiday legs.