Yeah, I'm guessing WB chose that date on the assumption that DR-P2 is moving, which considering that they still haven't finished filming due to the strike seems more likely than not.

I don't know if Horizon will make THAT much money, but it does seem like a prime contender for a surprise breakout now, with Costner being the hottest he's been in a while and there being a possible thirst among the public for large scale historical films after Oppenheimer and (hopefully) Killers of the Flower Moon. Releasing a teaser this early seems promising.

A good benchmark for it is Sound of Freedom's gross

Gladiator 2 could be a kind of Top Gun Maverick. It would need to be as good or better than the first one though.

Problem is Russell Crowe can't be/isn't in it. It's like Top Gun 2 without Tom Cruise.

When I made the polls Garfield was a filler spot but I actually think it’s one of the better candidates of that group now (obviously wouldn’t bet on it though like everything else on the list). Then again Top Gun -> Indy 5 showed it's never as easy as just copying last year’s breakout, in its case Super Mario Bros.

Yes that is key isnt it.

I'm thinking more a $200-$300m gross at best with a glimmer of breakout potential.

I sort of feel with the way audiences are now they might be originally apprehensive about it but warm up to Gladiator 2 if the quality is there.

Sort of like Mad Max Fury Road was a reboot without the original star Gibson and way, way later. Fighting sports in modern times have only gotten more popular it feels like since Gladiator came out and think there's a timeless nature of that type of movie. Crowe's absence will be felt greatly but feeling it will have a slow but steady run rather than bursting out of the gate to a record.

That would be more than the first! I'm going with a more $75-$100m gross for it. It's getting nowhere near $300m without Crowe. This sequel is just a bad idea for me right now. It can always materialise into something special, of course, but just how I feel right now it feels stupid to do a Crowe-less Gladiator sequel.

Well Denzel is in it and he at least is consistent in that $80M-120M zone so at least we know it will reach that without Crowe.

I also feel that Ridley Scott is not the director he once was. He's always been hit or miss, in my opinion. I saw the first reviews for Napoleon suggest it is dull and bloated. The potential for Ridley to screw up Gladiator 2 is definitely there.

Agreed on Scott but will see what he comes up with.

Clint's delivered some of my favorite work from him at a very old age so maybe Scott can pull it off.

Mufasa (Lion King sequel). Beloved IP and a banging Zimmer soundtrack. There’s a chance.

I originally didn’t have it in the mid expectations camp but after Disney’s struggles maybe it should be

The first one came out over 20 years ago, so inflation is going to help it a lot. If it were to lose half its audience it would still outgross the original.

I think Napoleon is probably a blueprint for what a Gladiator sequel will do. It will flirt with $100 million as a best case. I just don't see the interest in a Crowe-less Gladiator sequel. It might feel a bit like a TV spin-off since they're focusing on the kid.

I decided to go in on Dune 2 in the draft. I wanted something that could plausibly build a crescendo of social media buzz.

And you chose Dune 2?? The mind boggles