The Equalizer 3 only opener

Equalizer- 23m

Everything else I think will drop 20% or less or increase even.

Equalizer 1 and 2 opened to $34m AND $36m respectably. This has a fairly light marketplace, a Long weekend too and 5 years of inflation. Think it could challenge $40M+.

Yeah and it re-unites Denzel with Dakota Fanning which may help a little.

I'm thinking $35m 4-day but any more would be great.

M:I should die this weekend.

Next weekend. Labor Day will still give MI a solid weekend.

I'm going with $27.5m for Threequalizer.

I'm pretty sure the quality will be there for EQ3. Surprisingly, The Equalizer series is the only franchise with sequels in his entire film history.

That is until next year when Gladiator 2 comes out. I think that movie is going to be exceptional if Scott decided to go that route again and Denzel is involved.

I think fatigue will set in for this one? Like did anyone really want this movie?

Denzel is pretty consistent with pulling an audience in for his non-indie movies.

Also The Equalizer TV show has been renewed for Season 4 already. I definitely feel like it's expanded the audience for the franchise and season 3 was doing 9M viewers weekly. People seem to be consuming this show that it isn't like the typical "threequel" movie.

The big what if is how much of a TV show audience who didn't see the movies will watch this. TBD.

I don't care about the series, but hope it does well for the sake of theaters, and to help show that bigger movies can successfully open over Labor Day weekend. Denzel doesn't do that many movies, so when he does, his fans should turn up.

I'm more excited for Bottoms this weekend, which expands to 700+ theaters. Not sure when I'll get a chance to go, but I will as soon as I can.

The director has also hinted it can be viewed as a spiritual sequel to Man on Fire. I've always liked this series, Denzel in these type of thrillers are easy sells. Though time has passed a bit, so this might need the holiday to get over 30 million.

Gladiator 2 sounds like a bad idea. I always liked the Gladiator 2 in the afterlife with Crowe idea.

Yes

Presales dont scream a big breakout. Let us see how things go this thursday. I am thinking sub 30m over 4 days for now.

That’s what I was thinking, hard to believe Denzel is 68 now. I really think he should do a comedy next. It’s his only real genre he never hit but he seems like he would be a blast, like when DeNiro only did meet the parents or analyze this.

On second thought this will be walk up heavy. May be this can do 35m over 4 days with good walk ups. Market is starved for another hit after Barbenheimer and Denzel is a star for sure.

From Variety:

The R-rated film is projected to earn $28 million to $30 million between Friday and Sunday and $33 million to $40 million through the four-day holiday frame.

The fact that this # is out makes me think it could overperform. Denzel beating people up in his movies seems to be in vogue since Liam Neeson over did himself and he's passed the baton to Denzel and Keanu.

I think it's a $35-40m 4-day at worst.

I looked at some of the showtimes for Bottoms in my area and it seems to be selling pretty well for tonight and tomorrow? Certainly better advance sales than any recent original comedy. Even in just 700 theaters I wonder if it can reach $5M for the 4-day, especially since WOM seems very strong.

Yeah Bottoms seemed to be doing quite well tonight at all of the Minnesota theaters that added it.

~3.75m previews IMO. 35m ish over 4 days. Good walkups seen today despite swift mania.

Elemental's +1,925 theater change to 2,160 this weekend is interesting. It's Labor Day so hope it makes the most of it!

It will probably get it to like 155m total don’t see the point.

Disney re-expanded every Pixar summer release from 2015-19 for Labor Day weekend, so this just seems to be a return to that (after they didn't even bother with Lightyear last summer )

$8.456M for Barbie is my estimate