Most, if not all, of us did pretty horribly on the summer top ten. Barbie outgrossing Flash, Mission Impossible and Indiana Jones combined is still just about the craziest thing to ever happen to the box office.

So let's try again on a season that, on paper, is ever harder to predict!

edit* added a poll

My sure to be wrong predictions right now:

1. Dune Part Two - $90M / $280M
2. Wonka - $35M / $250M
3. Napoleon - $55M / $230M
4. Wish - $40M / $220M
5. The Marvels - $81M / $200M
6. Aquaman - $40M / $190M
7. Hunger Games - $65M / $150M
8. The Exorcist - $55M / $125M
9. Killers of the Flower Moon - $35M / $110M
10. Migration - $15M / $100M

But you could literally swap the grosses for any of these and I wouldn't be surprised. Don't think there will be a huge breakout for anything, though one of the top 4 could squeeze over $300M I suppose. My reasoning is that Dune, Wonka, Napoleon and Wish all fit the fresh but familiar type of branding that has been doing well lately.

It’s hard to do this cuz some will get pushed due to the strike.

Napoleon doing 100m would be fantastic. 200m ain’t happening

1. Napolean - 80/260
2. Trolls Band Together - 60/230
3. Hunger Games - 60/180
4. Wish - 35/175
5. Dune 2 - 60/175
6. The Marvels - 60/160
7. The Exorcist - 70/154
8. Killers of the Flower Moon - 40/110
9. Aquaman 2 - 40/90
10. Wonka - 25/100

Napolean with the shocking win as the Joker bros flock to it and has bipartisan appeal as the masculinity clicks with non-woke right wing type audience. KOFM gets mixed word of mouth when it ends up being a slower and depressing movie like Power of the Dog.

Hunger Games becomes the Transformers as the surprisingly decent performer.

Theatrical Trolls shows its sneaky kids popularity, Wish legs out like Elemental while Migration gets overshadowed by them and becomes Illumination's miss they're due for.

I have no idea. Based on how huge the first ones were Aquaman 2 vs The Marvels would be the obvious contenders for Top 2, but they both have a ton going against them. That said, I don't see Aquaman falling as low as some of these sub $100M predictions. I wouldn't be surprised at $200M+ just by virtue of it being a big franchise movie around Christmas. People did seem to like the first one even if the rest of the DC universe is a mess. No trailer this close to release is a bad sign though.

Wonka looks like a good choice for families but we've seen many of these unwanted prequels flop.

Hunger Games looks like a cheaper, less-exciting version of the first films and without Katniss/JLaw there goes a huge part of the public's connection with the franchise. This looks like a 'for hardcore fans only' type of affair.

Trollz 3 I have no idea how to predict.

Killers of the Flower Moon seems like a safe bet for a $30M+ OW but legs are anyone's guess.

Napoleon screams either breakout hit or huge panned bomb ala Exodus: Gods & Kings.

The one thing I'm fairly confident about is that Dune 2 won't have some kind of mega increase that puts it at a huge blockbuster level. I see a run similar to Mad Max: Fury Road with bigger international numbers. The first one was good but fairly cold emotionally and it did not have a satisfying ending. Not a beloved crowd-pleaser. The property still feels fairly niche and Part 2 doesn't look radically different from the first.

Expecting Hunger Games overperformance. The first movies were SO massive with inflation that even if they get 1/3 of that audience back its going to be a lot of $$$.

Marvels will disappoint because its so hard to get close to the original's gross.

Wonka will probably win as it's going to be the main Christmas movie since Aquaman can't pull any more reshoots with the strike so what they have now is what they'll deliver to theaters.

Animation is HOT this year so a bunch of those will overperform.

Agreed on Napoleon overperforming. Ridley Scott + Joaquin in a bad guy role in his pre-Gladiator 2 film. An overperformance here will build buzz for his next epic even if its a new cast.

I forgot about Trolls. World Tour was the only new movie for like 5 months during 2020. I'm sure alot of households had it on repeat. Terrible release date though. I'll put it at $130M for #8 of the season.

Hunger Games adjusted for inflation:

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $552,548,826 ($694,394,724 ww unadjusted)
The Hunger Games $549,832,273 ($865,011,746 ww unadjusted)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 $440,257,789 ($755,356,711 ww unadjusted)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $368,974,932 ($653,428,261 ww unadjusted)

4 movies with the last one 8 years ago doing $369M domestic adjusted and $650M+ unadjusted.

Everyone is overlooking Migration, but I think it wins the season. That, or Wish.

Everything else has big hurdles.

1. Wish
2. Migration
3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
4. The Marvels
5. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Wonka
8. Trolls Band Together
9. Exorcist: The Believer
10. Napoleon

I don't see Killers of the Flower Moon being a big grosser. I see it being an awards contender, but one that is more like Three Billboards with a $54m gross. Kind of the same with Napoleon. It'll do well with awards, but mainly for Joaquin and Ridley. I don't see it being this Gladiator-esque near-$200m grosser. I think the season's major flop will be Hunger Games. No Lawrence and no buzz (although I admit this audience is a blindspot of mine) means it will not even manage $100 million.

Guess I should have waited a week to make this thread.

1. Migration 260m
2. Wonka 250m
3. Wish 225m
4. The Marvels 205m
5. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom 200m
6. Trolls Band Together 175m
7. The Hunger Games The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes 165m
8. Killers of the Flower Moon 120m
9. The Exorcist: Believer 110m
10. Napoleon 100m

Wonka 210m
The Marvels 200m
Aquaman 2 182m
Migration 180m
Wish 175m
Trolls Band Together 150m
Killers of the Flower Moon 145m
Napoleon 120m
The Exorcist: Believer 120m
Friday Night at Freddy's 117m
The Hunger Games The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes 115m

Edit: added Aquaman which i somehow missed

Updated due to Dune Part Two moving back.

1. Wish
2. Migration
3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
4. The Marvels
5. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
6. Wonka
7. Trolls Band Together
8. Exorcist: The Believer
9. Napoleon
10. Killers of the Flower Moon

Taylor wins? Good way for her to end the year.

Yeah Taylor Swift has this in the bag now unless there's a mega breakout from one of the Christmas movies.

The October weekend record looks all but certain to be broken too (Joker $96,202,337). It looks to be the ONLY monthly record to be broken this year.

Ant Man 3 got #3 in Feb and Barbie #3 in July for the only top 3 showings otherwise on the monthly records list.

Oof. I'm curious to see how high TS can go since its a weekend release only. Not sure it can hit $250m+ total but if its opening is something insane then ya.

Taylor entered the chat

We are at $6,686,670,728 for the year up to Labor Day.

A little less than 4 months left of the year. Beating 2022 will probably happen by early October.

2019's $11,363,360,889 is a stretch but before $9B was iffy but Taylor should help though Dune moving doesn't. $9B would be down 20.8% from 2019 levels but would symbolically be a good place to end the year.

Would need $2.313B to get there. Some September surprises would help bridge the Taylor gap in the mean time.

I see on RT that Maverick is "back in theaters". Not that it will matter for this statistic, but still it's nice to see it back.

Does anyone have anymore intel re: Trolls Band Together? The latest I can find (which was from 2021) says it's only in theatres for 17 days before it goes to Peacock. It seems absurd if true, though I suspect this is no longer the case and that it was stated before because it was mid-pandemic when they were trying to show support for digital services.

Unlike Wish and Migration, Trolls needs its two stars for the promotional campaign. It will definitely move.

Aquaman should just release without a trailer at this point.

Yeah, I was thinking I haven't seen any marketing for it yet.

That would be MASSIVE for Wish.

And PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie is probably going to do well. The calendar is wide open. Like, nothing whatsoever is around for kids for, like, seven or eight weeks (depending on Trolls Band Together). It's the same reason TMNT and Elemental were able to rack up such grosses. So fingers crossed Ryder and co. do well. There's also nothing in the marketplace until PAW Patrol comes out, so kids will be dying for something new.

Also, just an observation but I can't believe Trolls and Wish are meant to be released just a week apart.

It is pretty bizarre that September has only 5 or 6 wide releases open over the first 4 weeks, then 4 new openers on the 9/29 date by itself. Dumb Money should have just opened wide next weekend or against Expendables.