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| Barbenheimer INTL https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90105 |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Wed Aug 30, 2023 12:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Great decision by Universal. Nolan will make his next one with them. Oppenheimer Italy has been a juggernaut. its tuesday is 1.5m euros and 11.7m total. It will be around $20m by end of this weekend. Greece had biggest OW for a movie after NWH. Its probably looking at 3-4m total. Between the 2 we are looking at 30-35m. This guarantees 900m WW even if China has a mediocre run. China OD is 39.41m yuan. It has been very PS heavy for sure. That said WOM looks incredible and so we could see a good run. Let us see how the weekend trend is before projecting its full run. |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Aug 30, 2023 12:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Oppenheimer needs to get to $1,006,234,167 to BEAT The Dark Knight which the fact we are even talking about is ridiculous. It's at $778,876,670 now so needs $227 M. Inception's $837,186,610 is just $58M away. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Wed Aug 30, 2023 2:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Wow. So if it does around $130m in China it needs $100m from US/rverywhere else to a billion. Crazy. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Sep 03, 2023 11:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Oppenheimer OS - 542.7m and WW gross of 851.3. OS weekend inflated by 5 day OW in China. China weekend trend is promising. It dramatically increased on Saturday and so I am hoping for good run. Not $130m to take this to 1B WW but 70m is my expectation. WW around 950m and I hope Japan does release at some point. There are also re-release expansion in domestic and other big markets as its not hitting streaming until Feb. So I wont rule out 1B WW but its looking tough. Barbie OS - 771.5 total and WW 1381M. Definitely over 800m and 1.45B finish. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
So Barbie ends in China with about $37.1 million. Meh. But Oppenheimer is faring better. It didn't fall off a cliff sat-sat either, down 55%. Currently up to $47.1m. Probably good for a $65 million total. Not terrible in 2023 China but also nothing spectacular either. Meg 2: The Trench did $125+ million. Though on the flipside, Gran Turismo did less than $2 million. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Good comp for Oppenheimer are movies like Transformers 7 or MI7. Meg 2 was considered to be "local" release due to it being joint production and starring Jing Wu as well. Oppenheimer is doing well in Imax and not so much outside that. I am not surprised as I just watched the movie again at AMC Metreon 70mm Imax and it was simply stunning to see it in giant screen. It has already overtaken Endgame in Imax gross world wide and its not as if Imax has grown a lot since 2019. There have been few closures as well at many locations. Barbie has crossed 1.4B and looks like 1.45B finish unless it continues to expand into awards season and does something special or they release a directorial cut for it. Oppenheimer looks like finishing around 950m barring awards push taking it to 1B or if it gets a release in Japan and does better than expected :-) |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Sep 11, 2023 6:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Keyser Söze wrote: Meg 2 was considered to be "local" release due to it being joint production and starring Jing Wu as well. If so then Meg 2 underperformed. Wu Jing action movies don't do such measly numbers. But in reality it was neither local nor foreign. It was in-between. It was an English-language action film starring Jason Statham. No way it can be considered a local movie. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Mon Sep 11, 2023 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Algren wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: Meg 2 was considered to be "local" release due to it being joint production and starring Jing Wu as well. If so then Meg 2 underperformed. Wu Jing action movies don't do such measly numbers. But in reality it was neither local nor foreign. It was in-between. It was an English-language action film starring Jason Statham. No way it can be considered a local movie. its release was a local release and not part of international quota. That happens when its a co-production with a local studio. It definitely under performed considering it did not even hit 1st movie number in China. I dont think any hollywood movie co production or not really performed well in 2023. At least compared to pre covid comps. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Sep 11, 2023 4:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Keyser Söze wrote: Algren wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: Meg 2 was considered to be "local" release due to it being joint production and starring Jing Wu as well. If so then Meg 2 underperformed. Wu Jing action movies don't do such measly numbers. But in reality it was neither local nor foreign. It was in-between. It was an English-language action film starring Jason Statham. No way it can be considered a local movie. its release was a local release and not part of international quota. That happens when its a co-production with a local studio. It definitely under performed considering it did not even hit 1st movie number in China. I dont think any hollywood movie co production or not really performed well in 2023. At least compared to pre covid comps. Ah, interesting. Ok. I concede it was a local release then. Still feels weird to say that, though. |
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| Author: | O [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Oppenheimer has apparently finally negotiated a Japan release. Will happen sometime in 2024. Will be the biggest question mark on if Oppenheimer gets to $1B or not. An Oscar push may be able to get it part way there but still not sure how the population will receive the movie. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
$40M+ in Japan seems like a tall ask. It's also getting a rerelase this weekend, but with the 4k blue ray out (and flying off the shelves everywhere) hard to see it making more than a million. The math says a billion is impossible. It can't be done. But theory will only get you so far. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Given the whole Barbenheimer thing backfiring for Barbie in Japan I doubt this makes much there. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
I dont think Barbenheimer would be the marketing drive for this one. Plus I expect core audience to be expats in cities who could check it out in big screen. good thing is piracy is not a factor in Japan and late releases are normal. That said the genre itself is not something that does great in Japan. But curiosity factor will be there. |
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| Author: | O [ Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
Just read that Nolan's salary from Oppenheimer was just under $100M. It's getting re-released this weekend in 1000 theaters. That $$$ is a combination of salary, backend compensation, box-office escalators and a bonus for his twin Academy Awards. He also has additional financial bonuses that kick in if it passes $1B, and I'm sure a bunch of the cast especially RDJ do as well. So much depends on Japan of course but I feel as though this is somehow, someway going to get past $1B. At $958,711,340. Needs $41.3M to get there so I wouldn't be shocked if the entire cast and crew shows up to Japan to push the film. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Tue Mar 12, 2024 1:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
O wrote: He also has additional financial bonuses that kick in if it passes $1B, So it is in Universal's interest if it doesn't hit $1b... |
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| Author: | O [ Tue Mar 12, 2024 1:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Barbenheimer INTL |
I think it IS in their interest because Nolan is deciding where he wants his next film to be and it's going to be between WB and Universal. If they come across to him as trying to help get the film past $1B, and he got Oscar glory with Universal when he couldn't with WB, giving Nolan an extra $10-20M bonus will mean little compared to another possible $1B movie in the future with him. I can't see them not pushing for it. It ain't WB and they aren't going to write anything off. 
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