Last year there were a record 37 films with open with at least 20m. This year we have matched that, and it's just a question of how much the old record will be broken by.

1 . Along Came Polly
2 . Barbershop 2: Back In Business
3 . 50 First Dates
4 . The Passion
5 . Starsky & Hutch
6 . Dawn of the Dead
7 . Scooby Doo 2
8 . Hellboy
9 . Kill Bill Vol. 2
10 . Man on Fire
11 . 13 Going on 30
12 . Mean Girls
13 . Van Helsing
14 . Troy
15 . Shrek 2
16 . The Day After Tomorrow
17 . Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
18 . The Chronicles of Riddick
19 . Garfield
20 . The Stepford Wives
21 . Dodgeball
22 . Fahrenheit 9/11
23 . Spider-Man 2
24 . Anchorman
25 . I, Robot
26 . The Bourne Supremacy
27 . The Village
28 . The Manchurian Candidate
29 . Collateral
30 . Alien Vs Predator
31 . The Princess Diaries 2
32 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse
33 . The Forgotten
34 . Shark Tale
35 . Ladder 49
36 . Friday Night Lights
37 . The Grudge

My picks:

Locks:
The Incredibles
SpongeBob
Blade: Trinity
Ocean's Twelve
Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events
Meet the Fockers

+90% Chance:
National Treasure
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

50%-90% Chance:
Alexander

10%-49% Chance:
Ray
After The Sunset
Christmas With The Kranks
Spanglish
The Aviator

Under 10% chance:
The Polar Express
Seed of Chucky

Make your own picks. I know many will disagree with me on The Polar Express. :wink:

Number of 20m openers through the years:
2004: 37 and counting
2003: 37
2002: 32 (includes BHD which opened limited in 2001)
2001: 28
2000: 25
1999: 24
1998: 18
1997: 16
1996: 12
1995: 10
1994: 8
1993: 4
1992: 5
1991: 5
1990: 4
1989: 5
1988: 2
1987: 1
1986: 0
1985: 1
1984: 1
1983: 1

1 . Along Came Polly
2 . Barbershop 2: Back In Business
3 . 50 First Dates
4 . The Passion
5 . Starsky & Hutch
6 . Dawn of the Dead
7 . Scooby Doo 2
8 . Hellboy
9 . Kill Bill Vol. 2
10 . Man on Fire
11 . 13 Going on 30
12 . Mean Girls
13 . Van Helsing
14 . Troy
15 . Shrek 2
16 . The Day After Tomorrow
17 . Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
18 . The Chronicles of Riddick
19 . Garfield
20 . The Stepford Wives
21 . Dodgeball
22 . Fahrenheit 9/11
23 . Spider-Man 2
24 . Anchorman
25 . I, Robot
26 . The Bourne Supremacy
27 . The Village
28 . The Manchurian Candidate
29 . Collateral
30 . Alien Vs Predator
31 . The Princess Diaries 2
32 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse
33 . The Forgotten
34 . Shark Tale
35 . Ladder 49
36 . Friday Night Lights
37 . The Grudge

Locks
38. The Incredibles
39. Spongebob Squarepants: The Movie
40. Blade: Trinity
41. Ocean's Twelve
42. Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
43. Meet The Fockers

Great Chance
44. The Polar Express
45. National Treasure
46. Flight of the Phoenix
47. Alexander
48. Christmas with the Kranks

Good Chance
49. After The Sunset
50. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
51. The Aviator
52. Seed of Chucky
53. Saw

So-So Chance
54. Ray
55. Spanglish
56. Fat Albert

So, i guess you dont think that Meet the Fockers just wont be able to withstand $20 Million at opening weekend hehe

Whoops.

I figure this to be alteast high 20's

I would guess that most people will see it based on the nostaligia and enjoyment because of the original book, regardless if the reviews are bad.

Ray is looking like it will probably make it based on yahoo and the crowd reports.

Saw might also have a chance.

We can now add Ray, breaking last year's record of 37 20m openers.

1 . Along Came Polly
2 . Barbershop 2: Back In Business
3 . 50 First Dates
4 . The Passion
5 . Starsky & Hutch
6 . Dawn of the Dead
7 . Scooby Doo 2
8 . Hellboy
9 . Kill Bill Vol. 2
10 . Man on Fire
11 . 13 Going on 30
12 . Mean Girls
13 . Van Helsing
14 . Troy
15 . Shrek 2
16 . The Day After Tomorrow
17 . Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
18 . The Chronicles of Riddick
19 . Garfield
20 . The Stepford Wives
21 . Dodgeball
22 . Fahrenheit 9/11
23 . Spider-Man 2
24 . Anchorman
25 . I, Robot
26 . The Bourne Supremacy
27 . The Village
28 . The Manchurian Candidate
29 . Collateral
30 . Alien Vs Predator
31 . The Princess Diaries 2
32 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse
33 . The Forgotten
34 . Shark Tale
35 . Ladder 49
36 . Friday Night Lights
37 . The Grudge
38 . Ray

My picks:

Locks:
The Incredibles
SpongeBob
Blade: Trinity
Ocean's Twelve
Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events
Meet the Fockers

+90% Chance:
National Treasure

50%-90% Chance:
Alexander

10%-49% Chance:
After The Sunset
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (Down due to it being released in 500 theaters on Nov. 12)
Christmas With The Kranks
Spanglish
The Aviator

Under 10% chance:
The Polar Express
Seed of Chucky

Make your own picks. I know many will disagree with me on The Polar Express. :wink:

Number of 20m openers through the years:
2004: 38 and counting
2003: 37
2002: 32 (includes BHD which opened limited in 2001)
2001: 28
2000: 25
1999: 24
1998: 18
1997: 16
1996: 12
1995: 10
1994: 8
1993: 4
1992: 5
1991: 5
1990: 4
1989: 5
1988: 2
1987: 1
1986: 0
1985: 1
1984: 1
1983: 1

After opening day, The Incredibles is already #39 for the year.

Well, I was wrong about The Polar Express. That will make 40 for the year. I there a chance at 50? I highly doubt it as everything would need to work out perfectly, but who know. We would need 3 out of these four: Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason (I would count it if it made it next weekend, as it would be its first week in wide release), Christmas With The Kranks, Spanglish, The Aviator. Very unlikely.

Still we should have about 10 more then last year, an impressive increase.

6 . Dawn of the Dead
27 . The Village
30 . Alien Vs Predator
32 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse
33 . The Forgotten
37 . The Grudge

6 Horror/Thrillers to open above $20M.

Close Ones:
Saw $18,276,468
Secret Window $18,237,568
The Exorcist Beginning $18,054,001
The Butterfly Effect $17,065,227

Further:
Anacondas 2 $12,812,287
Open Water $1,100,943
Chucky $8,000,000 (est)

We now have 43, and we should end up with 47 or 48. A great year overall. We now nearly average one a week.

1 . Along Came Polly
2 . Barbershop 2: Back In Business
3 . 50 First Dates
4 . The Passion
5 . Starsky & Hutch
6 . Dawn of the Dead
7 . Scooby Doo 2
8 . Hellboy
9 . Kill Bill Vol. 2
10 . Man on Fire
11 . 13 Going on 30
12 . Mean Girls
13 . Van Helsing
14 . Troy
15 . Shrek 2
16 . The Day After Tomorrow
17 . Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
18 . The Chronicles of Riddick
19 . Garfield
20 . The Stepford Wives
21 . Dodgeball
22 . Fahrenheit 9/11
23 . Spider-Man 2
24 . Anchorman
25 . I, Robot
26 . The Bourne Supremacy
27 . The Village
28 . The Manchurian Candidate
29 . Collateral
30 . Alien Vs Predator
31 . The Princess Diaries 2
32 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse
33 . The Forgotten
34 . Shark Tale
35 . Ladder 49
36 . Friday Night Lights
37 . The Grudge
38 . Ray
39 . The Incredibles
40 . The Polar Express
41 . National Treasure
42 . SpongeBob SquarePants
43 . Christmas With the Kranks

My picks:

Locks:
Blade: Trinity
Ocean's Twelve
Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events
Meet the Fockers

Others:
Spanglish - About a 40% chance
The Aviator - 10% chance


Number of 20m openers through the years:
2004: 43 and counting
2003: 37
2002: 32 (includes BHD which opened limited in 2001)
2001: 28
2000: 25
1999: 24
1998: 18
1997: 16
1996: 12
1995: 10
1994: 8
1993: 4
1992: 5
1991: 5
1990: 4
1989: 5
1988: 2
1987: 1
1986: 0
1985: 1
1984: 1
1983: 1

I think The Flight of the Phoenix has a shot at a $20 million weekend.

With that release date? If it were to open with 20m it would finish with 80m at the very least, and likely over 100m. I don't think it stands a shot. I predict an opening along the lines of 6m and a total of about 30m.

Ocean's 12 makes it 44 for the year, however, my "lock" Blade: Trinity falls short.

Ouhhhh, I didn't see this thread before.! Just to add some data from that Wknd thread:



2004 OPENING WEEKENDS

1 . Shrek 2 $108,037,878 ( 4,163 | $25,951 | $128,983,060 )
2 . Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367 ( 3,855 | $24,302 | $93,687,367 )
3 . Spider-Man 2 $88,156,227 ( 4,152 | $21,232 | $152,411,751 )
4 . The Passion of the Christ $83,848,082 ( 3,043 | $27,554 | $125,185,971 )
5 . The Incredibles $70,467,623 ( 3,933 | $17,917 | $70,467,623 )
6 . The Day After Tomorrow $68,743,584 ( 3,425 | $20,071 | $68,743,584 )
7 . The Bourne Supremacy $52,521,865 ( 3,165 | $16,594 | $52,521,865 )
8 . I, Robot $52,179,887 ( 3,420 | $15,257 | $52,179,887 )
9 . Van Helsing $51,748,040 ( 3,575 | $14,474 | $51,748,040 )
10 . The Village $50,746,142 ( 3,730 | $13,604 | $50,746,142 )
11 . Shark Tale $47,604,606 ( 4,016 | $11,853 | $47,604,606 )
12 . Troy $46,865,412 ( 3,411 | $13,739 | $46,865,412 )
13 . 50 First Dates $39,852,237 ( 3,591 | $11,097 | $39,852,237 )
14 . Ocean's Twelve $39,153,380 ( 3,290 | $11,900 | $39,153,380 )
15 . The Grudge $39,128,715 ( 3,245 | $12,058 | $39,128,715 )
16 . Alien vs. Predator $38,291,056 ( 3,395 | $11,278 | $38,291,056 )
17 . National Treasure $35,142,554 ( 3,017 | $11,648 | $35,142,554 )
18 . The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie $32,018,216 ( 3,212 | $9,968 | $32,018,216 )
19 . DodgeBall: A True Underdog Story $30,070,196 ( 2,694 | $11,161 | $30,070,196 )
20 . Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed $29,438,331 ( 3,312 | $8,888 | $29,438,331 )
21 . Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy $28,416,365 ( 3,091 | $9,193 | $28,416,365 )
22 . Starsky and Hutch $28,103,367 ( 3,185 | $8,823 | $28,103,367 )
23 . Along Came Polly $27,721,185 ( 2,984 | $9,289 | $27,721,185 )
24 . Dawn of the Dead $26,722,575 ( 2,745 | $9,735 | $26,722,575 )
25 . Kill Bill Vol. 2 $25,104,949 ( 2,971 | $8,449 | $25,104,949 )
26 . Collateral $24,701,458 ( 3,188 | $7,748 | $24,701,458 )
27 . Mean Girls $24,432,195 ( 2,839 | $8,605 | $24,432,195 )
28 . The Chronicles of Riddick $24,289,165 ( 2,757 | $8,809 | $24,289,165 )
29 . Barbershop 2: Back in Business $24,241,612 ( 2,711 | $8,941 | $24,241,612 )
30 . Fahrenheit 9/11 $23,920,637 ( 868 | $27,558 | $24,078,959 )
31 . The Polar Express $23,323,463 ( 3,650 | $6,389 | $30,629,146 )
32 . Hellboy $23,172,440 ( 3,028 | $7,652 | $23,172,440 )
33 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse $23,036,273 ( 3,284 | $7,014 | $23,036,273 )
34 . The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement $22,956,453 ( 3,472 | $6,611 | $37,140,203 )
35 . Man on Fire $22,751,490 ( 2,980 | $7,634 | $22,791,395 )
36 . Ladder 49 $22,088,204 ( 3,260 | $6,775 | $22,088,204 )
37 . Garfield: The Movie $21,727,611 ( 3,094 | $7,022 | $21,727,611 )
38 . Christmas with the Kranks $21,570,867 ( 3,393 | $6,357 | $30,818,212 )
39 . The Stepford Wives $21,406,781 ( 3,057 | $7,002 | $21,406,781 )
40 . 13 Going on 30 $21,054,283 ( 3,438 | $6,123 | $21,054,283 )
41 . The Forgotten $21,022,111 ( 3,104 | $6,772 | $21,022,111 )
42 . Friday Night Lights $20,269,025 ( 2,667 | $7,599 | $20,269,025 )
43 . Ray $20,039,730 ( 2,006 | $9,989 | $20,039,730 )
44 . The Manchurian Candidate $20,018,620 ( 2,867 | $6,982 | $20,018,620 )





Group Breakdown


$100.00 m+: 1 film
$90.00 m+: 2 films
$80.00 m+: 4 films
$70.00 m+: 5 films
$60.00 m+: 6 films
$50.00 m+: 10 films
$40.00 m+: 12 films
$35.00 m+: 17 films
$30.00 m+: 19 films
$25.00 m+: 25 films
$20.00 m+: 44 films


Average Gross


Top 3 Avg. Gross: $96,627,157
Top 5 Avg. Gross: $88,839,435
Top 10 Avg. Gross: $72,013,670
Top 12 Avg. Gross: $67,883,893
Top 15 Avg. Gross: $62,182,736
Top 20 Avg. Gross: $54,885,070
Top 25 Avg. Gross: $49,350,794
Top 30 Avg. Gross: $45,178,497
Top 35 Avg. Gross: $42,017,001
Top 40 Avg. Gross: $39,461,069
Top 45 Avg. Gross: $37,321,533



2003 OPENING WEEKENDS



1 . The Matrix Reloaded $91,774,413 ( 3,603 | $25,471 | $134,282,716 )
2 . X2: X-Men United $85,558,731 ( 3,741 | $22,870 | $85,558,731 )
3 . The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $72,629,713 ( 3,703 | $19,613 | $124,100,534 )
4 . Finding Nemo $70,251,710 ( 3,374 | $20,821 | $70,251,710 )
5 . Bruce Almighty $67,953,330 ( 3,483 | $19,510 | $67,953,330 )
6 . Hulk $62,128,420 ( 3,660 | $16,974 | $62,128,420 )
7 . 2 Fast 2 Furious $50,472,480 ( 3,408 | $14,810 | $50,472,480 )
8 . The Matrix Revolutions $48,475,154 ( 3,502 | $13,842 | $83,790,000 )
9 . Scary Movie 3 $48,113,770 ( 3,505 | $13,727 | $48,113,770 )
10 . Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $46,630,690 ( 3,269 | $14,264 | $70,625,971 )
11 . Bad Boys II $46,522,560 ( 3,186 | $14,602 | $46,522,560 )
12 . Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines $44,041,440 ( 3,504 | $12,568 | $72,387,461 )
13 . Anger Management $42,220,847 ( 3,551 | $11,889 | $42,220,847 )
14 . Daredevil $40,310,419 ( 3,471 | $11,613 | $40,310,419 )
15 . The Cat in the Hat $38,329,160 ( 3,464 | $11,065 | $38,329,160 )
16 . Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle $37,634,221 ( 3,459 | $10,880 | $37,634,221 )
17 . S.W.A.T. $37,062,535 ( 3,202 | $11,574 | $37,062,535 )
18 . Freddy vs. Jason $36,428,066 ( 3,014 | $12,086 | $36,428,066 )
19 . Spy Kids 3D: Game Over $33,417,739 ( 3,344 | $9,993 | $33,417,739 )
20 . American Wedding $33,369,440 ( 3,172 | $10,520 | $33,369,440 )
21 . Elf $31,113,501 ( 3,337 | $9,323 | $31,113,501 )
22 . Bringing Down the House $31,101,026 ( 2,801 | $11,103 | $31,101,026 )
23 . The Texas Chainsaw Massacre $28,094,014 ( 3,016 | $9,314 | $28,094,014 )
24 . Daddy Day Care $27,623,580 ( 3,370 | $8,196 | $27,623,580 )
25 . Cheaper by the Dozen $27,557,647 ( 3,298 | $8,355 | $35,397,241 )
26 . Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World $25,105,990 ( 3,101 | $8,096 | $25,105,990 )
27 . The Haunted Mansion $24,278,410 ( 3,122 | $7,776 | $34,046,111 )
28 . The Last Samurai $24,271,354 ( 2,908 | $8,346 | $24,271,354 )
29 . How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days $23,774,850 ( 2,923 | $8,133 | $23,774,850 )
30 . Once Upon a Time in Mexico $23,424,118 ( 3,282 | $7,137 | $23,424,118 )
31 . The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen $23,075,892 ( 3,002 | $7,686 | $23,075,892 )
32 . Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde $22,220,670 ( 3,350 | $6,633 | $38,507,400 )
33 . Freaky Friday $22,203,007 ( 2,954 | $7,516 | $33,100,977 )
34 . Kill Bill Vol. 1 $22,089,322 ( 3,102 | $7,120 | $22,089,322 )
35 . Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life $21,783,641 ( 3,222 | $6,760 | $21,783,641 )
36 . Underworld $21,753,759 ( 2,915 | $7,462 | $21,753,759 )
37 . Seabiscuit $20,854,735 ( 1,989 | $10,485 | $20,854,735 )


Summary-Categories


$100.00 m+: none
$90.00 m+: 1 film
$80.00 m+: 2 films
$70.00 m+: 4 films
$60.00 m+: 6 films
$50.00 m+: 7 films
$40.00 m+: 14 films
$35.00 m+: 18 films
$30.00 m+: 22 films
$25.00 m+: 26 films
$20.00 m+: 37 films



Year-to-Year Improvements/Set-Backs


Category: 2003 | 2004 (2003-to-2004 Increases/Decreases)



$100.00 m+: 0 | 1 ( + 1 )
$90.00 m+: 1 | 2 ( + 1 )
$80.00 m+: 2 | 4 ( + 2 )
$70.00 m+: 4 | 5 ( + 1 )
$60.00 m+: 6 | 6 ( same )
$50.00 m+: 7 | 10 ( + 3 )
$40.00 m+: 14 | 12 ( - 2 )
$35.00 m+: 18 | 17 ( - 1 )
$30.00 m+: 22 | 19 ( - 3 )
$25.00 m+: 26 | 25 ( - 1 )
$20.00 m+: 37 | 44 ( + 7 )


2004 really kicked 2003's ass, didn't it?

Thanks Box.

And yeah it did beat 2003 by quite a bit overall. However, when it comes to openers that happens nearly every year.

Ya, it really isn't saying much if a film opens with $20m+ nowadays, with the exception of some stellar performers like F 9/11.

I fully expect 50 $20m+ openings next year, with Batman giving us $100m+.

Yeah, I agree. It might even break the opening weekend record.

It's way too early to tell whether it can achieve that or not. First, we need to get a clear sense of what the competition will be; films are still moving around from release date to release date, and we have no clue which films will disappoint or break out.

Also, if SW3's Thursday opening proves to be extremely successful, and if anticipation for Batman Begins reaches fever pitch, WB could push the opening day forward by a day to Thursday. They did it with Matrix Reloaded, it could prove profitable this time as well.

Edit: Personally, I'd move it to a Thursday. Consider: if WOM is bad, the film will be able to offset that by having an extra day in addition to the weekend which will be immune to any WOM. If the film is good, the extra day will give it more time in the spotlight, and more time to get word around town. Either way, it's a win-win situation.

Thursday releases in general are starting to look mightily fine to me. I think we could end this decade with a very great number of blockbusters opting for it.

I really doubt Batman Begins will break the weekend record. I expect more on the lines of $60 million opening, but good legs.

So, we finish with 46 20m openers for the year. Since this record is broken every year, we will break it again for 2005. I think we might have as many as 55 20m openers this year.

1 . Along Came Polly
2 . Barbershop 2: Back In Business
3 . 50 First Dates
4 . The Passion
5 . Starsky & Hutch
6 . Dawn of the Dead
7 . Scooby Doo 2
8 . Hellboy
9 . Kill Bill Vol. 2
10 . Man on Fire
11 . 13 Going on 30
12 . Mean Girls
13 . Van Helsing
14 . Troy
15 . Shrek 2
16 . The Day After Tomorrow
17 . Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
18 . The Chronicles of Riddick
19 . Garfield
20 . The Stepford Wives
21 . Dodgeball
22 . Fahrenheit 9/11
23 . Spider-Man 2
24 . Anchorman
25 . I, Robot
26 . The Bourne Supremacy
27 . The Village
28 . The Manchurian Candidate
29 . Collateral
30 . Alien Vs Predator
31 . The Princess Diaries 2
32 . Resident Evil: Apocalypse
33 . The Forgotten
34 . Shark Tale
35 . Ladder 49
36 . Friday Night Lights
37 . The Grudge
38 . Ray
39 . The Incredibles
40 . The Polar Express
41 . National Treasure
42 . SpongeBob SquarePants
43 . Christmas With the Kranks
44 . Ocean's Twelve
45 . Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events
46 . Meet the Fockers

Number of 20m openers through the years:
2004: 46 and counting
2003: 37
2002: 32 (includes BHD which opened limited in 2001)
2001: 28
2000: 25
1999: 24
1998: 18
1997: 16
1996: 12
1995: 10
1994: 8
1993: 4
1992: 5
1991: 5
1990: 4
1989: 5
1988: 2
1987: 1
1986: 0
1985: 1
1984: 1
1983: 1