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July 21-23 Predictions
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90096		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:41 am ]
Post subject:  July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie 145m
Oppenheimer 68m
Mission Impossible -45%
Author:  Rev [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 8:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie 105m
Oppenheimer 60m
Mission Impossible -55%
Author:  O [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 9:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Going to be a huge weekend (possibly biggest of the year?) and Sound of Freedom's holds will help expand it even further. Unfortunately MI doesn't look like it has smooth waters ahead.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 10:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Should be an epic weekend.

Leaning toward Barbie going for $150m+. The presales and hype are there.

60m+ for Oppenheimer seems like too much; if it does do that I think the whole Barbenheimer and double feature thing will do it. I'm gonna go with $52m.

I think with MI opening on Wednesday the drop will probably be like 54%.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 11:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
B - 150
O - 70
M - 20 :-(
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 11:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
B - 150
O - 70
M - 20 :-(


70!? If it hits that that would be crazy
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 11:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:
B - 150
O - 70
M - 20 :-(


70!? If it hits that that would be crazy


I will confirm on Sunday where things are. Pre-sales are ahead of Indy and MI7. Not jus for previews but for weekend as well.
Author:  JustLurking [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie 165
Oppenheimer 70
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 5:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
I'm also not thinking big for Oppenheimer. I reckon it will have a $42m opening.

Barbie, not sure. Anything over $100m just seems absurd to me, and even if all tracking says it will do it I can't bring myself to predict that high. I'll go with $71m.
Author:  stuffp [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 6:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
I predicted 93/52 for B and O in the monthly game, and I was way too high on MI, in hindsight I should have reversed hypes, and while I think going over 130m is still too crazy for Barbie I believe it will do better than Spider-verse, and regardless of the Barbie opening, Oppenheimer should be good for at least half of it. And it could end up being very close, but at the max I can't see the combined opening be over 200m.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 7:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie - $133m
Oppenheimer - $52m

Barbie could go higher but will leave it at that.

Edit: went up from $108m to $133m
Author:  Barrabás [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 10:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie: $115M

Oppenheimer: $58M
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Jul 15, 2023 2:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Empire City said on Twitter that he wouldn't be shocked if Barbie opens to 170+. That would be absolutely insane and I very much doubt that. I don't even know how there are so many people excited for it but I swear everyone has been talking about it. It's definitely opening above 100. That's a given. I would even say 120 Million is a very safe bet. I hope it's huge for WB so they have some money to release Salem's Lot sometime :P. I'm dying for that one. I really want them to get some kind of trailer out to attach to The Nun 2.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Jul 15, 2023 3:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
What would Oppenheimer have to do for the second biggest non number 1 debut? I know number one is Inside Out. Is number 2 still The Day After Tomorrow?
Author:  Shack [ Sat Jul 15, 2023 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie seems set for a number that's going to make my brain break. I posted a few months ago that there could be a pretty long period of time between 150 million openers with Mario missing due to its Wednesday open and a relatively soft upcoming holiday schedule, but I guess you can't hold down the 150 mil+ blockbuster opening for too long before something weird happens.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Jul 15, 2023 9:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
At every theater near me, Oppenheimer is only playing on one standard screen and one imax screen. Weird. Barbie has like 3x as many shows
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
MI7 wont drop as bad as I feared. OW at least will be close to 55m and even with Barbenheimer it should do 25m 2nd weekend.

Presales for Barbie is just Crazy at the moment. not just for previews as well. Oppenheimer is also crushing all recent openers like Flash, Indy and MI7. its friday sales is 30% higher than previews and growing faster as well. So it will have a good internal multi due to spillovers.
Author:  Excel [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 11:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Theater owners, start your popcorn machines!

The release of both Barbie and Oppenheimer on the same weekend has definitely helped build buzz for both films. Barbie has a likely floor of $150m with room to really explode while Oppenheimer is looking at $50m+ and possibly even $70m. This is a similar mid-July pop culture explosion similar to what we saw in 2008 with THE DARK KNIGHT. We'll see where it ends up but Barbie is bordering on outright pop culture phenom status which could lead to truly mind-blowing business.

Barbie 2 needs to be a premiere Christmas film and release in 2025. Whatever else is there will move to avoid it no doubt.

Optimistic prediction:

Barbie - $185m
Oppenheimer - $70m
MI7: $30m
Everything else ( aside from SOF) R.I.P.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Sound of Freedom will keep doing well as well.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Barbie - $150 million
Oppenheimer - $57 million

Dead Reckoning -53%
Sound of Freedom -25%?
Everything else save maybe Elemental -50% and over

Epic weekend incoming :D
Author:  Corpse [ Mon Jul 17, 2023 9:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Are any chains running a double-feature special this weekend?
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
I compiled a list of the top non #1 debuts. Oppenheimer has a good chance to be number 2.

Spoiler: show
Inside Out $90,440,272
The Day After Tomorrow $68,743,584
World War Z $66,411,834
Sherlock Holmes $62,304,277
Pokémon: Detective Pikachu $54,365,242
Prometheus $51,050,101
Wanted $50,927,085
Lightyear $50,577,961
The Great Gatsby (2013) $50,085,185
How to Train Your Dragon 2 $49,451,322
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Squeakquel $48,875,415
Tangled $48,767,052
Kung Fu Panda 2 $47,656,302
The Longest Yard (2005) $47,606,480
Interstellar $47,510,360
Madagascar $47,224,594
Fifty Shades Darker $46,607,250
Trolls $46,581,142
Ghostbusters (2016) $46,018,755
Mad Max: Fury Road $45,428,128
Alvin and the Chipmunks $44,307,417
The Peanuts Movie $44,213,073
A Star is Born $42,908,051
Terminator: Salvation $42,558,390
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $41,690,382
The Hangover Part 3 $41,671,198
Grown Ups 2 $41,508,572
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood $41,082,018
Independence Day: Resurgence $41,039,944
Casino Royals $40,833,156
The Last Airbender $40,325,019
Grown Ups $40,506,562
Power Rangers $40,300,288
The Mummy: The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor $40,457,770
Safe House $40,172,720
Rio 2 $39,327,869
The Good Dinosaur $39,155,217
Magic Mike $39,127,170
The Heat $39,115,043
Daddy’s Home $38,740,203
You Don’t Mess With the Zohan $38,531,374
The Legend of Tarzan $38,527,856
Over the Hedge $38,457,003
Bee Movie $38,021,044
Pacific Rim $37,285,325
Annabelle $37,134,255
Kingsman: The Secret Service $36,206,331
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $36,169,328
Robin Hood (2010) $36,063,385
Salt $36,011,243
The Smurfs $35,611,637
Creed 2 $35,574,710
Central Intelligence $35,535,250
Lilo and Stitch $35,260,212
Sing $35,258,145
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again $34,952,180
Sausage Party $34,263,534
The Blind Side $34,119,372
Get Hard $33,803,253
Epic $33,531,068
Ted 2 $33,507,870
Wrath of the Titans $33,457,18
Live Free or Die Hard $33,369,559
Hustlers $33,181,361
A Wrinkle in Time $33,123,609
X-Men: Dark Phoenix $32,828,348
The Book of Eli $32,789,494
Due Date $32,689,406
Mr. Peabody and Sherman $32,207,057
Wedding Crashers $32,200,000
Elf $32,100,000
The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie $32,018,216
The Mummy (2017) $31,688,375
Bad Teacher $31,603,106
The Purge: Election Year $31,515,110
The Wolfman $31,479,235
Percy Jackson and the Olympians The Lightning Thief $31,236,067
Girls Trip $31,201,920
Into the Woods $31,051,923
Sex and the City 2 $31,001,870
Step Brothers $30,940,732
Knocked Up $30,690,990
Unbroken $30,621,445
The Happening $30,517,109
John Wick: Chapter 2 $30,436,123
M3gan $30,429,860
Olympus Has Fallen $30,373,794
Unbreakable $30,330,771
The Addams Family $30,300,007
John Carter $30,180,188
Django Unchained $30,122,888
The Best Man Holiday $30,107,55
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time $30,095,259
Sleepy Hollow $30,060,467
Saw V $30,053,954
Catch Me if You Can $30,053,627
The Purge: Anarchy $29,816,675
Hercules (2014) $29,800,263
Constantine $29,769,098
Dark Shadows $29,685,274
Daddy’s Home 2 $29,651,193
Elemental $29,602,429
Insidious: The Last Key $29,581,355
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never $29,514,05
Now You See Me $29,350,389
The Muppets $29,239,026
The Lone Ranger $29,210,849
The Divergent Series: Allegiant $29,027,348
Edge of Tomorrow $28,760,246
Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy $28,416,365
Nacho Libre $28,309,599
Horrible Bosses $28,302,165
Starsky & Hutch $28,103,367
Hairspray (2007) $27,800,000
Mamma Mia! $27,751,240
Jarhead $27,726,210
Haunted Mansion (2003) $27,623,580
The Ugly Truth $27,605,576
Cheaper By the Dozen (2004) $27,557,647
Wonder $27,547,866
The Devil Wears Prada $27,537,244
After Earth $27,520,040
Bedtime Stories $27,450,296
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $27,335,363
Les Miserables (2012) $27,281,735
The Bourne Identity $27,118,640
A Madea Family Funeral $27,062,332
Terminator Genisys $27,018,486
Alice Through the Looking Glass $26,858,726
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button $26,853,816
Knives Out $26,769,548
The Campaign $26,588,460
All Eyez on Me $26,435,354
We’re the Millers $26,419,396
Why Did I Get Married Too? $29,289,537
Bridesmaids $26,247,410
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues $26,232,425
Bolt $26,223,128
The Help $26,044,590
Rocketman $25,725,722
Captain Phillips $25,718,314
Fantastic Four (2015) $25,685,737
The A Team $25,669,455
Big Momma’s House $25,661,041
About Last Night $25,649,011
Son of God $25,601,865
Total Recall (2013) $25,577,758
Battleship $25,534,825
The Penguins of Madagascar $25,447,444
The Visit $25,427,560
Gnomeo and Juliet $25,356,909
Public Enemies $25,271,675
Date Night $25,207,599
Tomorrow Never Dies $25,143,007
Meet the Robinsons $25,123,781
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World $25,105,990
Madea’s Big Happy Family $25,068,677
Doctor Dolittle 2 $25,037,03
Peter Rabbit $25,010,928
Jack and Jill $25,003,575
Author:  Rev [ Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Will Barbie double Oppenheimer’s opening? O_o
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue Jul 18, 2023 12:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Rev wrote:
Will Barbie double Oppenheimer’s opening? O_o


I think so. Release also will be twice as big. That said Oppy is also will be so full that it will see insane spillover business. For presales Friday Oppy is like 3/4 of Barbie but Sunday is like 95% and all days are extremely strong. I feel Barbie will do better with walk ups due to bigger release but I could see Oppy crossing 80m OW if it adds more prime time shows.

i am updating
B - 175m
O - 80m.

Go big or Go Home.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Tue Jul 18, 2023 12:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 21-23 Predictions
Yowza. I'm really not expecting Oppenheimer to go over 70m but that'd be incredible.
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