Breather weekend

No Hard Feelings 15m
Asteroid City 6m

Flash -59%
Elemental -33%

Will Paramount try to sneak more MI previews this weekend as well? Seems like a slower weekend for openers so might as well do it to keep padding the "opening weekend" grosses.

Yes, looks like The Flash isn't the success story I thought it to be, so it'll probably drop 65%.

Elemental should've just opened this weekend...

Not sure how WoM will be on Flash. Think it's not strong enough to overcome the hesitance some have to seeing it. Gonna go with -61% drop.

It’s funny how the studios botched the release dates for big titles on fear of the mighty Indy behemoth

Next three weeks look to be a major waste of prime release dates. At least it may help the legs of the films currently in release.

Sensing an empty marketplace can't not help IJ and MI at this point. There may be no movies above $20M by the time IJ opens. If IJ does disappoint, MI is going to clean up.

Which is why I think Oppenheimer will disappoint. Indy is kind of a wild card as it’s going to pull much older, but does almost have a 10 day holiday weekend to itself ( I remember crystal skull surprising with 5 straight 25 million days) And MI will probably look as a disappointment next to Top but increase over fallout slightly. Barbie will over perform, it just reminds me of Flinstones or the first Scooby Doo. Next month is definitely the most interesting in a while

I want to see every wide release this weekend. No Hard Feelings, God is a Bullet, Asteroid City and Past Lives. Asteroid City is my least anticipated but I'm still interested. Hopefully No Hard Feelings does well.

Hopefully because there's no big release The Flash can actually hold well? But it doesn't seem to work like that, I feel. A big movie's second weekend is almost always what it's going to be regardless of competition. But maybe it can be the difference between a 58% drop a 62% drop.

Feeling like a high 60s drop for Flash like Thor, Doctor Starts and Ant man now that that CinemaScore is out.

Have any of you actually seen the flash? I think it is going to hold pretty well.

I thought it'd have solid WoM but that Cinemascore and low opening make me feel people don't give af about it at all

CS is not going to prove accurate I suspect, and people don't give af about it opening weekend but I think repeat and won will be solid, especially with summer week days.

Lol Excel shilling for DC and WB against all evidence as always.

This film isn’t hitting 150m domestic

Yeah, I have vested interest in it performing well (draft) and even I can't see it making $160m.

No Hard Feelings - $17.5 million
Asteroid City - $4,000 PTA

The Flash -68%
Elemental -40%
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse -35%

A much needed breather weekend, although I hope No Hard Feelings can over-perform. Pre-sales in my area are basically non-existent, but the sneak previews from last night seemed to go over well, as it has a 94% RT Audience Score. I also expect Asteroid City to expand well, as its pre-sales are pretty impressive in my area - Wes Anderson may be niche, but his fanbase is incredibly devoted.

I'm expecting total disaster for The Flash at this point. WOM is rough and all of the coverage has been about what a massive flop it is. Elemental might hold well though, WOM seems strong and it has zero competition. Depending on how the weekend numbers shake out I could honestly see the entire top 4 finishing within $2-3 million of each other.

Sneaks for No Hard Feelings at multiple theaters in my area were also well attended yesterday night. I think it will be able to avoid total disaster and maybe its the mindless type of fun moviegoers want. Mid teens looks possible and with good WOM could hold well over the July long weekend too.

Who's going to be #1 next weekend?

Elemental $19.5M -34%
The Flash $19.3M -65%
Spider-verse $19.2M -31%
No Hard Feelings $15M

There could be a very close 4 way race next weekend now that Transformers is out. If No Hard Feelings overperforms somehow there's a dark horse chance it could sneak up on all of them.

No hard feelings #1
Spider-Man #2
Elemental #3
Flash #4

Asteroid City's expansion should be interesting.

Budapest pulled $8,539,795 in its 4th weekend of expansion from 977 theaters and that was 9 years ago. Apparently its going right for 1500 theaters next weekend. With it's biggest A-list cast ever as well.

French Dispatch opened when many adults still weren't going to theaters in Oct. 2021 and I'd love to see a massive overperformance here for it as well.

No Hard Feelings getting to #1 would be a really exciting Hollywood narrative. You don't need a $200M budget to have a hit.

I did see it and I thought it kinda sucked. My audience’s response was pretty tepid for this kind of movie too. I saw Elemental the same day and that had a much more positive response.

I hope No Hard Feelings can open somewhere in the teens.

No Hard Feelings seems like its primed for a breakout. The reviews and early word are solid and could resonate as counterprograming. Definitely looks like it could make a play for the weekend if buzz picks up.

I am seeing NHF ~ 1.8m previews and Asteroid City ~ 900K-1m previews. Friday sales for NHF seem meh. I am not seeing more than 13-15m at this point. Asteroid city probably in 7-8m OW. Spidey will win this weekend.

Well, apparently there are at least two different versions of Spidey in theaters! And no, not the updated sound version that was sent out shortly after opening (although this could be one of the variants).

At least two versions have been reported now by moviegoers, which includes different dialogue and scene differences, and some have reported different scores playing in some parts.

And an editor on the film tweeted today that he wondered when people would start to notice to confirm it.

Might boost some repeats among hardcore fans to see if they catch the version they missed.

Please don't let that become the new trend.

Interesting. Here are the average predictions for this week's derby:

The Flash $17.83m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $17.22m
Elemental $17.20m
No Hard Feelings $13.64m
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $10.65m
Asteroid City $8.21m
The Little Mermaid $7.49m
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 $3.20m
The Blackening $2.80m
God is a Bullet $1.05m

Fingers crossed the derbyers are right.