World of KJ :: View topic - Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental

JustLurking wrote:

Algren wrote:

JustLurking wrote:

Algren wrote:

I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use.

Profitability is kind of what determines what films we even get to begin with. If avatar2 grossed 1.1b it would've been the second biggest film of the year...but all its sequels would've been canned regardless.

Sure. I'm not disregarding its importance to the industry. But to us, who are not part of that industry, it doesn't matter at all. Surely we should just care which films are the most popular, and the popularity metric with regards to box office is gross.

If anything it is the other way around. Box office makes absolutely no difference to any of us beyond having some fun with the numbers. Profitability does, as that determines what films we get.

Author:	Algren [ Wed May 31, 2023 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
JustLurking wrote: Algren wrote: JustLurking wrote: Algren wrote: I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use. Profitability is kind of what determines what films we even get to begin with. If avatar2 grossed 1.1b it would've been the second biggest film of the year...but all its sequels would've been canned regardless. Sure. I'm not disregarding its importance to the industry. But to us, who are not part of that industry, it doesn't matter at all. Surely we should just care which films are the most popular, and the popularity metric with regards to box office is gross. If anything it is the other way around. Box office makes absolutely no difference to any of us beyond having some fun with the numbers. Profitability does, as that determines what films we get. But we're not just fans. I'm not talking about the general audince. We're all box office enthusiasts on a box office forum. We're not part of a stocks and markets forum. We have box office discussion and reviews, and we keep lists. Why the hell does it matter to us whether a film is profitable? It just doesn't....UNLESS we like said film and are arguing its validity as a project when its box office underwhelmed. That's its only use in the twenty years I've been following box office.

Author:	Shack [ Wed May 31, 2023 6:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
It changes whether something can be considered a hit or not. Dungeons and Dragons gross would have been pretty good if it was a 70 mil budget film, but at 150 it becomes more meh.

Author:	Algren [ Wed May 31, 2023 7:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Shack wrote: It changes whether something can be considered a hit or not. Dungeons and Dragons gross would have been pretty good if it was a 70 mil budget film, but at 150 it becomes more meh. Yeah, not really. It's a hit relative to other films released that year. A high budget opens a new debate about profitability, but it doesn't take the shine off its gross, imo. To each his own.

Author:	O [ Wed May 31, 2023 7:33 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Very much subjective like you said but, Wouldn't that make Fast 10's OW look great? The 11th film in a franchise opens to $67M? I'm a huge fan of the franchise and will admit that but it was disappointing to see it do that tally and lower than its predecessor impacted by Covid. A $340M budget takes the shine off that especially. I can't say there's any scenario I would be able to ignore that level of discrepancy on the inputs (cost) vs the outputs (gross) for the ROI. Scream opened to $44M, less than Fast 10. But had a $35M budget. Is it less of a hit than Fast 10 since it grossed 2/3 of its tally? I'd consider it a bigger hit because its budget was 1/10 and ROI was so significantly higher. I think the budgets are what give each of these grosses different shine, not the net gross revenue because then we'd say Fast was a bigger hit than Scream which didn't feel like it was domestically though its gross is higher. Cleopatra was a big box office hit for the year (won its year I think) but almost bankrupted the studio so wasn't a hit at all by any measure. Of course on the contrary side on your point and why your position is still valid, still more people saw Fast so box office gross is important. We celebrate the all time domestic box office list (box office grosses) not the most profitable movies of all time list.

Author:	JustLurking [ Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:39 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
The very concept of a hit is relative to how much a film cost. Disregarding this loses all meaning of BO tracking. It would mean placing Smile and Lightyear on the same level despite one being one of the best performers of last year and the other one of the worst. That may be true in terms of popularity but we all know Smile was a big hit while Lightyear was a disaster and that is how they get treated in BO conversation as well. Budget sets the BO expectation. You don't need to care about the details but as long as you track BO you definitely care about what a breakeven ballpark for the film looks like.

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Author:	Algren [ Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:08 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
O wrote: Wouldn't that make Fast 10's OW look great? The 11th film in a franchise opens to $67M? It was great in terms of sustaining a fanbase and shielding itself from franchise fatigue. The budget only gets brought up because people always need to find a "but..." angle. The budget angle never really interests me because of the aforementioned reasons, but also because all films made a profit in the end anyway unless the film cost $200 million and only made a tenth of that at the box office. In 99% of cases they all turn a profit.

Author:	zwackerm [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:01 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Has a new release without premium screens like Barbie ever beaten a new release with premium screens like Oppenheimer over OW before?

Author:	JustLurking [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:07 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
zwackerm wrote: Has a new release without premium screens like Barbie ever beaten a new release with premium screens like Oppenheimer over OW before? It is pretty likely Barbie will get some premiums at the very least for the morning/early afternoon shows

Author:	Corpse [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:33 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Sounds like Tom Cruise needs to take a chill pill if reports are accurate.

Author:	O [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:35 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Here's the article that gives more context. https://puck.news/the-tom-cruise-vs-opp ... smackdown/ Doesn't seem that far off though. Opp is going to have a 3 week exclusive but scheduled its date in 2021 vs MI which did in 2022 for this July. Unfortunately for Cruise TGM was SO, SO big that its hard for MI to go anywhere but down so anything in its way or impacting potential box office is going to sting. But Nolan practically designed and made his movie with IMAX as a partner that he got the exclusive first. Cruise's TGM did essentially save theaters in a way so guess he was hoping that goodwill would extend to good terms for his movie this year. Realistically, if they needed to do more work on it and moved it to November or Dec or something would probably do even more and have an ability to have IMAX longer but too close now to do that. Also I don't think he expected B+O to have as much buzz as they are getting and there's a great chance MI could plunge from the intense competition of 2 possible $50M+ movies with appeal to some overlapping demos.

Author:	Algren [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:36 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
He's entitled to try and protect his film. But I also think nine days is enough time for people to see M:I-7 in IMAX.

Author:	Corpse [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:40 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
The main problem is IMAX and premium theaters seemingly having little capacity to show more than one or two films on them. I mentioned it before, but the "new film opening next week and is gonna take all the IMAX and premiums" is silly. Surely there's enough space for two or three films to benefit from IMAX and premiums at the same time.

Author:	publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:14 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
More premium screens really should be built. I have a theater right next to me but I drive a little further to go to a Dolby screen.

Author:	Keyser Söze [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:44 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Power of Nolan is that in 2 days in very limited shows(only Imax and 70mm are for sale for now), its selling like Transformers did. We will know real pace only when wider sales start on 8th. Its definitely going to open well despite Barbie opening to big numbers as well.

Author:	O [ Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
So what are we looking at, maybe Flash $68M Elemental $32M $100M total Looks like B+O's 3day could beat TF+E's 4day.

Author:	Barrabás [ Sun Jun 18, 2023 1:26 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Excel wrote: Barbie might be the most creative high profile comedy since Austin Powers. I hope it succeeds. Seriously? Not Bruce Almighty or Ted? Barbie is literally based on a toy brand...

Author:	O [ Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:28 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Spider-verse with a 3.5X multiplier for the rest of its run would end with $350M. The summer title may still be up for grabs and reachable here. IJ is unlikely to do it but any type of big overperformance from MI or Barbie could give it a chance. Think Oppenheimer can't get that high. If Barbie somehow pulls it off it would be a mini Titanic type turnaround of bad press to massive box office returns and critical success. Margot's two back to back flops also look very much in the rear view mirror with how things are turning around on Barbie too. Also, LOL that Flash and Elemental couldn't even meet our $100M 3day estimates based on Friday: So B+O needs to get past $55.1M + $29.5M = $84.6M estimate They could beat Flash and Elementals 4 day OW in their first 2 days.

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Author:	zwackerm [ Fri Jun 02, 2023 11:57 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
July 21st is such a beautiful weekend with 2 hugely anticipated non sequels opening. Hoping they both breakout big

Author:	O [ Sat Jun 03, 2023 2:34 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Disney's release dates are so bad with Elemental and also Haunted Mansion. It's going to be in week 2 for B+O with likely only Barbie impacting it. But has TMNT in its second week. Just feels so much better in the fall, like Hocus Pocus 2 did incredible on Disney+. Maybe they purposely want it in July to have it hit streaming by Halloween but would make so much more later in the year.

Author:	publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Lol yeah Barbie Oppenheimer is gonna kill this. Flash/Elemental will be at around 100m total. Barbie Oppenheimer will do probably 115 minimum.

Author:	Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:43 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
If Indy flops then these two could actually end up in the summer's top 5 lol. Oppenheimer just has to match Dunkirk at this point.

Author:	Shack [ Sat Jun 17, 2023 11:59 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Barbie and Oppenheimer both being hits and Best Picture nominees would be a great win for original movies.

Author:	Excel [ Sun Jun 18, 2023 12:19 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Barbie might be the most creative high profile comedy since Austin Powers. I hope it succeeds.

Author:	Algren [ Sun Jun 18, 2023 3:40 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
You should use the term "comedy" loosely as well.

Author:	Algren [ Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:07 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Barbie hasn't got a chance because it completely alienates boys and men. It's not even date movie worthy. Barbie is so synonymous with being a girls brand that it's not getting to $200m let alone $300m.