$10.3m including Wednesday

The Machine 850k

That’s great. Should do over 5m and maybe high single digits with that

Thinking 102m for Little Mermaid in 3 days.

If Little Mermaid does $300m+ total I think that's a win. Hopefully it can make enough in the US so that WW total doesn't look bad.

OS looks to be a bust. Probably missing 250m. But domestic looks good and so its ok. Disney will sells millions of merchandise related to the characters/movie. Plus all the auxiliary revenue they get post theatrical.

Issue is only when a movie bombs big time like Shazam 2 or have really negative WOM like Ant 3. This is just divisive due to casting of Ariel than the movie itself.

It’s surprisingly not getting review bombed.

I actually after looking at comparisons think it can do a low 40s OD and 115-120m in 3 days.

Aladdin multiplier is 130 however I don't remember if it had this many early shows.

audience scores are great (95%)....so far

NO way its coming close to that. Best case is low 100s. its underperforming at several places. At least where ever the black population is not significant.

Lots of folks would be traveling today and that will be affecting walkups. Tomorrow it should see a nice bump.

Early Friday

Little Mermaid 38m

Seems very front loaded

Deadline is fairly good with early estimates for big movies but it could go higher if its a mega breakout. Why is 38m friday from slightly over 10m previews frontloaded. I would say that is quite good considering how wide the previews played.

I was thinking an over 4x multiplier preview to OD. Couldn’t find any kid flicks with worse ratio than that.

I think Little Mermaid having Wednesday shows and very early Thursday ones probably messed up the comparisons

Deadline I think is almost spot on. It could even slightly miss 38m. I am thinking 100m on dot for mermaid 3 day at this point and low 120s over 4 day. It seems to underperform in certain markets even domestic and that is not a surprise for this movie.

The original may have started the Disney renaissance and is classic Disney, but it also has the least appeal among the big four. Topping Aladdin's OW is pretty great, and while it's unlikely to have the legs of that one if only due to June being super crowded, doing $250-300 million shouldn't be seen as disappointing in the slightest.

And overseas was always going to be challenging, we knew that from the start. The US dollar being so strong just wasn't foreseen a couple years ago and is making it worse. Holding out a little hope that Japan can deliver for it next month despite audiences there abandoning Disney releases at the box-office. Japan might be the difference maker in whether it makes a profit in theaters, although the USD result will suffer regardless because of the continuously awful exchange rate (still around that 20-25 year low) since March 2022.

Even if it breaks the 3.5 year Disney drought in Japan and achieves a comparable gross to Beauty, Aladdin, and Alice, its USD total would "only" be $85 million ($25/30 million less than Beauty and Aladdin, and $55/60 million less than Alice). But even something like $80/85 million would go a long way to boosting its OS total, of course.

Interestingly, The a little Mermaid has sold more home videos than The Lion King, Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast, and is the best selling Dvd from WDAS of all time, despite much lower box office.

Doing better than Aladdin is actually impressive considering both the Disney remake idea and 2010s franchises model seem more tired right now.

Really!!!? that’s awesome

RTH confirmed Deadline's 38m. Deadline is really good at early estimates for big movies unless they are uber breakouts are a big disappointment. Mermaid is neither. That said with A cinemascore it should have a good run. It could end up beating Guardians domestic.

I don’t see it having back to back under 50% drops. I still have GOTG3 grossing more.
Also it’s holding up really well against TLM this weekend.

The Rage Bait is on full blast on YouTube.

The fact that there looks to be a battle for second place on Monday between Fast X and Guardians Vol. 3 is hilarious.

Fast 11 in danger? Will they go to China in the second half and get saved by their government like that Transformers movie?

I don't think there will be any "going to China" for any Hollywood franchise for a few decades. The whole China thing had its time in the sun but that ship has now sailed.

38m confirmed. Interested to see Saturday's #.