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May 19-21 Predictions
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89989		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 12, 2023 7:39 am ]
Post subject:  May 19-21 Predictions
Fast X- 72m

Guardians- -55%
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 12, 2023 8:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
I've no idea if people are anticipating the tenth installment in this franchise or not, but F9's $70,043,165 doesn't seem that high that Fast X couldn't just creep over it. Having said that, I feel a gloomy trend of franchise fare underwhelming is going to pull this one down too. I'm going with a $67 million opening.
Author:  Rev [ Fri May 12, 2023 8:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
YES!

$150m
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri May 12, 2023 9:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
I'm kind of feeling an underwhelming opening incoming. Then again the cast is so stacked maybe it'll match 9.

I'm gonna go with $61m.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri May 12, 2023 11:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
I am seeing around 65m. Previews could up a bit from last one but internal multi will be underwhelming.
Author:  Jonathan [ Fri May 12, 2023 6:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
The fact that they didn't even try keeping a lid on the post-credits scene tells me Universal is concerned about this underperforming and wanted a publicity boost. I wonder if it'll help at all.
Author:  O [ Sat May 13, 2023 4:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Still think Fast can pull $70M+ here. It's 14 years and 6/6 since then with $70M+ openings aside from Hobbes and Shaw as a spinoff. $70M OW in June 2021 during Covid was a solid number so expect it to pick up. $60M or under would be very bad.

Random note, Gone In 60 Seconds came out the year before and did $100M+ almost as a pre-cursor to Furious. Surprised after Fast got so big they didn't try to reboot Seconds.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sun May 14, 2023 5:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Pace is really anemic. One thing F9 had going for it was it was the 1st big movie to open once all seating restrictions were removed at CA/NY. Now its facing Guardians with uber strong WOM and schedule following FX is brutal. I think worst case scenario the OW could go as low as 50m !!! For now will reduce my expectations to 60m OW.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun May 14, 2023 10:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Looks like $60-$75m at this point. Though I'm still expecting $68-$72m.

The last one was pretty bad, so it won't shock if this goes lower end.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun May 14, 2023 11:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Is there any overseas tracking?

This film needs to gross as much as the 9th film just to break even, so even overseas might not make up the difference
Author:  Shack [ Sun May 14, 2023 11:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
It’s kind of crazy a franchise made it to the 10th-11th instalment.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon May 15, 2023 7:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
I expect Guardians will still have a solid hold against Fast with a 40-45% drop, as I expect it’s weekdays will only be down about 35-40% from last week and that momentum will help to offset its loss of premium screens
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Mon May 15, 2023 10:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Is there any overseas tracking?

This film needs to gross as much as the 9th film just to break even, so even overseas might not make up the difference


China seems well off last one which was half off F8. That said this movie does have good walkups. So let us wait until thursday to see how things go. Fast movies do well almost in every market.

Still think absolute best case scenario for this domestic is matching last one.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue May 16, 2023 1:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
At last presales are showing big boost. I am feeling good about this having higher previews than F9. Let us hope it persists and out opens the last one.

I forgot F9 previews started at 7PM and this one at 2PM. So chances of it out opening F9 seem low.

Deadline is also predicting 60m+ OW for FX.

https://deadline.com/2023/05/fast-x-box ... 235368392/
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed May 17, 2023 2:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
The last one's opening was depressed by covid. I've always assumed this one would get back to the $90-100M that they used to open in. Maybe people are just ready to move on though. There are many more exciting blockbusters on the horizon.
Author:  Algren [ Wed May 17, 2023 5:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
I feel COVID actually boosted the last one in that people were glad of a big blockbuster to go and see. Now it's the TENTH installment, what is there really to see from this franchise? Why must a potential admission see ASAP? I don't see a rush, and I believe if COVID never happened the ninth film would have also seen signs of fatigue.

This all said prior to it opening. I might change my theory if it comes out of the blocks like a bat out of hell, lol
Author:  O [ Wed May 17, 2023 1:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
This is a complete wildcard. Some of these reviews coming out make it seem like Momoa will be a like it or hate it type addition to the franchise.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed May 17, 2023 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Early WOM from China/Korea seem quite positive. Let us see how things go domestic. Now I feel like this is going to finish ahead of F9 WW.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed May 17, 2023 2:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Algren wrote:
I feel COVID actually boosted the last one in that people were glad of a big blockbuster to go and see. Now it's the TENTH installment, what is there really to see from this franchise? Why must a potential admission see ASAP? I don't see a rush, and I believe if COVID never happened the ninth film would have also seen signs of fatigue.

This all said prior to it opening. I might change my theory if it comes out of the blocks like a bat out of hell, lol
It's actually the 11th. :P

I say this everytime, but I'll never understand why Tokyo Drift counts but Hobbs and Shaw doesn't. :funny:
Author:  O [ Wed May 17, 2023 3:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Knew Hollywood was overrun with franchises but even this summer is really something:
-11th movie in a Fast franchise
-10th movie in the Spider-man franchise
-7th movie in the Transformers franchise (not counting the 80s cartoon version)
-7th movie in the Ninja Turtles franchise (lots of different iterations)
-7th Mission Impossible movie
-5th movie in the IJ franchise

Not counting a whole bunch of sequels coming out but 5 franchises with 7+ movies. Also not counting Directors / studio franchises like Nolan, Disney Animation, Pixar, MCU, DC, etc.

To see 3 sequels was something at one time. With AI they can probably make Fast sequels to 2100 if Vin Diesel gives permission to use his likeness and voice. Fast 2100 is my favorite to win that year. :P
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed May 17, 2023 4:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
59 on meta really isn't that bad all things considered. I thought that, whether the movie is good or bad, the critics would shred it just to make a point.

Maybe they're just worried about perception after blowing it with the low(ish) scores for Guardians?
Author:  Shack [ Wed May 17, 2023 9:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
They could have been harder on 9 too.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu May 18, 2023 2:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Guardians hold will probably be about 10% worse than it’s Thursday to Thursday drop.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu May 18, 2023 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Guardians has lost more than 1/4th of its shows and almost all of Imax/PLF. It will take a big hit today. It will recover over sat/sun. FX starting at 2PM hurts it even though FX itself does not seem that big. Every major publication seem to think its opening to just 60m or even a little bit lower. I want to see how walkups go today before going that low though its not crazy at all.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri May 19, 2023 12:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 19-21 Predictions
Looks like previews wont be that far off from F9. But previews started 5 hours earlier and so I am expecting lower multi. Its going to be ugly for FX domestic though overseas numbers are still robust.

I hope its Rev's OW prediction as domestic total. :-)
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