By how hard they relied on past Illumination projects in the trailer, I'm just feeling like this will be a generic animated movie. Another Open Season or Over the Hedge type. So that's why I put the over/under at just $100 million. I know it's only a teaser trailer and it could blossom into a big fall hit, but at the moment I don't see it.
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Last edited by Algren on Sat Jul 29, 2023 4:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:36 pm
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Migration predictions
Illumination has only had one miss at the box office (Hop). With the Christmas release I can’t see it doing sub 150m total. But it might do far below previous illumination outings
Wed Apr 05, 2023 3:29 pm
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22681 Location: Melbourne Australia
Re: Migration predictions
Was Hop a miss though? I thought it was a solid midrange hit.
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21890 Location: Places
Re: Migration predictions
This is going to get crushed by Aquaman and Wonka, I suspect.
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Wed Apr 05, 2023 6:55 pm
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Migration predictions
MadGez wrote:
Was Hop a miss though? I thought it was a solid midrange hit.
Not a bomb. But a far cry from every other movie of theirs
Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:59 pm
Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm Posts: 1798
Re: Migration predictions
random mod / board question: For some reason for the last year (maybe more), youtube videos embedded in posts just show up as blank white space for me. Has this happened for anyone else / is there a setting I could maybe toggle? Cuz like, wth is Migrations (I could google it but… it’d be nice to be able to see the videos people post here without having to either search for it on my own, or quote their post, highlight the youtube link and put that into another window)
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Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:07 pm
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
Re: Migration predictions
I think bird migration is a pretty good idea for an animated movie, I wish Pixar did it. There is also some nice sequel potential with other animals, salmon going up the river is a cool one.
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
Re: Migration predictions
Weird. Doesn't seem like an Illumination film but maybe it's actually better in terms of story and such? Lol
Thu Apr 06, 2023 2:35 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
Re: Migration predictions
Steve wrote:
random mod / board question: For some reason for the last year (maybe more), youtube videos embedded in posts just show up as blank white space for me. Has this happened for anyone else / is there a setting I could maybe toggle? Cuz like, wth is Migrations (I could google it but… it’d be nice to be able to see the videos people post here without having to either search for it on my own, or quote their post, highlight the youtube link and put that into another window)
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Thu Apr 06, 2023 5:10 am
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
Re: Migration predictions
Well the full trailer looks a lot better, and I think the $100m poll is too low, I'll change it to $150m. I think this has a shot at $200m+, and lol at the notion that Aquaman and Wonka will crush it.
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Sat Jul 29, 2023 4:03 am
JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
Re: Migration predictions
I never have a solid read on how illumination will do at the BO, to me they are a studio that makes mediocre to bad films but they clearly have an audience, this christmas isn't a super impressive slate either and it only really has wish as family competition which releases a full month prior, so...this probably does well enough
Keeping in mind that as I said my read on illumination is really poor, they've only ever had one non-sequel gross below 200M and that was hop, so even keeping in mind that original animation has struggled at the BO in post-pandemic times, slate weakness should ensure this doesn't break that streak...I guess? I'll say 200M+
Sat Jul 29, 2023 4:14 am
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
Re: Migration predictions
It's getting some solid reviews so far so maybe it can pull a 10X multiplier or something if it misses $10M this weekend. 73% from 34 reviews on RT so far.
Wed Dec 20, 2023 11:44 pm
Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
Re: Migration predictions
I can definitely see it being this year's Puss in Boots/Greatest Showman if it open relatively low.
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Re: Migration predictions
This unfortunately looks like it's going to do ok, but at least it will still be on the lower end for Illumination.
Fri Dec 29, 2023 12:02 pm
Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
Re: Migration predictions
It's not as big as I had hoped but still doing pretty well, and I feel it has a very long run ahead.
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Sun Dec 31, 2023 4:42 pm
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
Re: Migration predictions
Migration just passed Aquaman on Friday and a 10X multiplier. Still has a bit left despite KFP4.
Having the second best legs of the year was a great recovery, even for a family film opening at Christmas. $130M may still be possible. It's PTA was down only 28.2%.
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