Opens in the Jungle Cruise release date. Has a strong cast, but no draws on the level of the Rock. Untested director as well.

First trailer is interesting for sure. If it gets solid reviews I could see 40m OW, 120-130m total

I actually think the trailer for the Eddie Murphy one was better (film was god awful) jokes really fell flat. That one’s opening adjusts to around 30/115. I’d say that’s the goal, it opens in between Oppenheimer, Barbie, teenage Mutant ninja turtles, and the Meg 2 though. Needed someone bigger in the lead imo.

They need to release this in the fall. It will do fine in the summer but feel it could have done 20% more in Sept/Oct.

It looks a bit dark and a bit scary to me for a Disney movie aimed at kids, but I can still see a $40m opening and a finish over $120m.

I agree this could underperform with kids but cross over well to young adult horror audience, and the casting is pretty friendly to millennial aged people. The director's career has been all race movies so I'd predict this is Disneyfied Get Out.

So this is going to bomb, right? I'm starting to think a $20/25m OW would be impressive.

And, as has been the story all year, its $157.8m budget (oddly specific) isn't going to do it any favors.

At this point the only thing that could save it is amazing reviews. It has a recognizable cast but no draws.

The second weekend of barbenheimer will still be huge, and divert any interest this may have had in a less competitive section of the calendar

Bomb. This needed a star like Eddie Murphy was at the time. They obviously tried to keep the cast majority-black like that film which is all well and good, but there is no star this time. Owen Wilson is not a star in 2023. The black-cast-but-no-star casting will hurt it overseas in particular where it will completely bomb. Global audiences are only interested in majority-black casts when it's a major star like Will Smith/Eddie Murphy back in the day, or Black Panther because of Marvel.

Not releasing this in the fall is the dumbest move. But hey, they did release Hocus Pocus in July.

A Haunted Mansion movie just feels like it's been done before, and I feel like casting a guy from the other Haunting hit that was around at the same time subtly doesn't help.

Very weak PS. I am thinking high teens/low 20s OW for now.

Pretty dumb move to have this in summer. With a Halloween push it probably would've done way better

It really feels like a terrible cast if you want to distinguish yourself from a 2003 Eddie Murphy movie. In fact, I bet a channel surfer with a moderate case of the Mandela Effect might confuse Eddie's Pluto Nash co-star Rosario Dawson for actually being in the 2003 version, and that this is a direct sequel.