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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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February 17-20 Predictions
Ant Man and the Wasp Quantumania 105/115
Of an Age less than 1m
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Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:42 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Ant-man had extraordinary presales start at uber blockbuster level. Since then it has cooled off and by now it should have started to accelerate to final phase but meh reactions have not helped. But your prediction above seems good though Monday should be higher.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:46 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 95m/110m Ant-Man $57m Ant-Man and the Wasp $75m
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
Last edited by Rev on Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:07 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
First blockbuster of the year, first since Avatar: The Way of Water ... people will wanting to get out to the cinema. It can $100 million opening, but it's not a failure/flop/bomb/disappointment if it doesn't.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:07 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Algren wrote: First blockbuster of the year, first since Avatar: The Way of Water ... people will wanting to get out to the cinema. It can $100 million opening, but it's not a failure/flop/bomb/disappointment if it doesn't. agree also this is a franchise that did 519m and 622m WW respectively If AMQ does 700m WW... it's a HUGE WIN! and it will!
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Fri Feb 10, 2023 2:23 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Presales have cratered over past week. Its doing about half of BP2 sales at this point. I am thinking now about 18m previews and 3 day barely above 100m. 115m over 4 days and sub 250m finish. WW under 600m. China is looking meh as well looking at OD presales. This is 2nd disappointment for MCU in middle kingdom after Wakanda bombed over there last week.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:07 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Ant-Man reviews are mixed leaning positive.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:05 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Apparently the special effects are bad and there is lot of setup for little payoff.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:28 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
53 on meta. Only one point higher than Eternals.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:30 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
It started low enough it will likely end up rotten. If I remember correctly, Eternals started in the 70s.
Yikes, Marvel is clearly not learning from Phase 4 based on reactions
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:32 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Welp. Curious to see how this does. I think as long as it matches the last one it's not bad.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:35 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
And it's already rotten, 59%.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:29 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
The CGI is becoming a huge problem. People want a spectacle. Marvel needs to start embracing delay culture as video games have. It pisses the shareholders off, and makes some of your old advertising worthless, but the product will end up making more money. And it doesn't damage your brands reputation to the fans.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:29 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote: The CGI is becoming a huge problem. People want a spectacle. Marvel needs to start embracing delay culture as video games have. It pisses the shareholders off, and makes some of your old advertising worthless, but the product will end up making more money. And it doesn't damage your brands reputation to the fans. I agree. I heard they used 20 different CGI companies to get this out in a crazy schedule. They treat CGI artists like trash overwork and underpay them. Since they are the big kahuna they are able to get away with it. Hopefully things change for better. https://www.cnet.com/culture/entertainm ... aking-out/
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 4:33 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
The VFX industry is notoriously toxic with insane work schedules and pay that doesn't justify those schedules. Not surprised Marvel, which make films that are basically pro-authoritarian and military industrial complex propaganda, would partake in such a thing.
Hope this bombs so hard it puts Disney out of business.
_________________ .
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 7:01 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
CGI in Marvel films, and Hollywood in general, has been pretty bad since 2020. Well, not "bad" in many cases, just very noticeable. Green screen backdrops have been especially poor as it's regularly obvious the actors are in front of a screen to the point it's become distracting at times. When you can tell, with relative ease, that the characters are on a set with a screen behind them, it takes you out of the experience.
I guess they're trying to rush films out by relying so heavily on CGI (and rushing the work on the CGI) since the pandemic delayed things by by a year or two already. I'd gladly wait another year to get these films looking better.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Tue Feb 14, 2023 9:50 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Thinking 14-15m Previews and 45ish OD
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Fri Feb 17, 2023 1:39 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
The penny dropped at Warner Bros. and they're now putting Magic Mike's Last Dance into 3,034 theatres.
Wow, Marlowe is getting 2,300 theatres. I saw that as more of a 400-type release. That's going to have, like, a $20 PTA, lol.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:57 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Previews were between 17-18m apparently. So that absolutely should lock up at least 90m and should hit 100-115m 3 day if it holds normally throughout the weekend and is not hyper front loaded like DR Strange and Thor, which is possible since this was likely less anticipated.
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Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:14 am |
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rftapeout
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:20 pm Posts: 92
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantemania had a 85% verified (over 1000+ ratings) audience score on Rotten Tomatoes as of 2/17/2023 and a 83% (over 5000+ ratings) total audience score. Ant-man and the Wasp had a 80% audience score. Thor: Love and Thunder had a 77% audience score. Internal first weekend multiples were (75.8/11.5) 6.59 for Ant-man 2 and (144.2/29) 4.97 for Thor 4. Ant-man 3 will have an opening weekend between $87 million and $115 million. Right in the middle of this range is $101 million. I voted for Ant-man 3 to have an opening 3 day weekend greater than $100 million.
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Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:49 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Only The Fate of the Furious had an opening day north of 44m and missed 100m. So there may be 2 films in that club
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Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:11 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 17-20 Predictions
Official number is 46m.
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Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:32 pm |
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