Don't mess with the Morb!
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| Jan 13-16 weekend thread https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89771 |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
https://www.the-numbers.com/ Discuss! |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
https://www.thefilmik.com/is-avatar-2-h ... e-success/ Found a site specializing in production budget reporting….Avatar 2 numbers $800M spent on production + prints and advertising $1.3B break even point (although one of the major trades cited $1.4B as the profit point) Costs probably don’t count the several years of research and development |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
That would be a very good number for A2. If it pulls it off, $700m might be in play. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Early numbers Avatar 7/28/35 M3gan 5/18/21 Otto 3.5/10/12 Puss 2.5/10/13 Plane 3/8.7/9.5 |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Pretty nice # for M3GAN. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
A bit of a disappointing expansion for The Whale. But it has done pretty well overall. Fantastic hold for Puss in Boots. Strong for M3GAN too. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
House Party's PTA is almost on par with Otto but way less theaters lol |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Not bad for House Party considering the low theater count and no marketing. Will still gross more than any January release last year outside of Scream. No official estimate for Plane, I guess Lionsgate is taking the day off. Ok but not great hold for Avatar. Hope it soars today. M3gan's hold solidifies 100m+ total for it, even if its not going to be as leggy as the leggiest horror films. Puss seems like it should get to 150m now and could flirt with 175m if it can hold onto theaters. Time to make Shrek 5! |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 4:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Puss' dailies are interestingly looking like The Greatest Showman's run despite the first 3day weekend larger for Puss. They had different calendar dates but TGS's first 6 days (opening day to Christmas) was $19.0M while Puss's first 5 days (opening day to Christmas) was $18.5M. TGS New Years 4day weekend was $20,906,547. Puss's New Years 4day weekend was $22,623,710. TGS weekend 3 was $13,770,951. Puss weekend 3 was $13,541,330. TGS MLK 4day weekend was $16,177,587 (-9.5% 3day drop). Puss MLK 4day weekend was estimate by Deadline at $16M after a 9.8% drop. TGS had additional weekend drops of -14.6% (#5), -10.3% (#6), -19.4% (#7), -16.3% (#8) and -21.9% (#9). Puss could be at $109M by the end of MLK weekend. TGS was at $98,931,455 by the end of the MLK weekend. TGS had out of the world WOM and finished with $174M. I don't think Puss will be able to get 5 weekends in a row with under 22% drops but with a $10M lead it shouldn't finish that far off from TGS. Puss needs a 4.38X multiplier from a $13M 3day to get to $150M+. Even with an inflated MLK feel good about its chances as the only family film for a while. From a $160M total it would be looking at a 12.87X multiplier from a $12.43M opening weekend! Puss (2011) had a very different calendar and type of run but made 82.0% of its total box office in its first 4 weekends. Puss (2022) meanwhile from an estimated $160M total may still have another 1/3 of its run to go. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Plane had a $3.5 million Friday, so it opened in fourth place behind Otto. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
zwackerm wrote: Not bad for House Party considering the low theater count and no marketing. Will still gross more than any January release last year outside of Scream. I doubt it outgrosses The 355. |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 11:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Up until now A2's great weekends made up for its disappointing weekdays, but if those new estimates hold it looks like its 5th weekend will be underwhelming. TGM is definitely out of reach now. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
3rd biggest 5th weekend... lol not really underwhelming |
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| Author: | pookpooi [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
It's even more impressive considering that the "3rd biggest" is include the problematic American Sniper. If exclude that movie then A2 is the second biggest 5th weekend. Though I'll wait for actual. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Overall pretty strong weekend. Puss In Boots dropping 1%... wow. Universal's 17 day window works so much since it's not available for free anywhere unless Disney's stupid put it on D+ after less than 2 months |
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| Author: | pookpooi [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Also, just like the last weekend, this weekend the Way of Water still has the highest average per theatre, despite it has more theatre than all other movies in the current box-office tracking. It has more than twice the average of Puss, and Puss is already impressive enough. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Cynosure wrote: Up until now A2's great weekends made up for its disappointing weekdays Everytime there's a 3h+ movie people act surprised about this... Including getting there watching a movie like A2 is a 4h-5h time investment and most people just don't have the time during the week and will go over the weekend. Nothing to see here, it's been like this for decades... |
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| Author: | pookpooi [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
But A2 strives well in weekdays in international markets... This might be explain by the fact that in America, a cinema is a dedicated building, at most it's a complex. But in international market, especially in Asia, cinema is in shopping mall, and people already go to shopping mall everyday, this increase the chance that they'll watch the movie while at the shopping mall. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
In Europe weekdays are soft as well... |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
This very experimental movie received distribution and a semi-wide release entirely because a pirated copy of the film went viral all over the internet...making that kind of money when it was already so widely available and seen is kinda nuts. Another really solid weekend overall. Puss in Boots is having some extraordinary legs that I cannot imagine will slow down anytime soon with zero competition until Mario. And M3GAN looks like it could be the first $100M+ grosser to open the first weekend of January, right (excluding December platformers, of course)? |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Puss in Boots ftw! |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
$660-$670M final for Avatar 2 |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Unless there's some mistake the average for Women Talking increased which is kinda nuts. Skinamarink cost $15,000 so it has made its budget back several times over already. I wonder if they add theaters next weekend. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Puss' PTA for its 4th weekend is 19.9% higher than the PTA for its 1st weekend. It's Sat (25th day) is also its 5th biggest day of its run so far and is only down 12.5% from the top day of its run so far (Dec. 26th). Even with the long weekend its PTA is up 5.2% from last weekend. With no competition until Mario April 7th along with the Feb. long weekend, I do wonder if this can possibly make a run for $200M. Is going to be a big, big crazy stretch but needs a 7.99 multiplier from this weekend on to get there. Will probably run short but looks now to coast past its predecessor's $149M total. Otto expanded really well. It's PTA dropped only 50% despite a 6 fold increase in theaters. Looking like the beginning of what could be a very long run. This has a Step Mom / Marley and Me type box office run all over it. Wouldn't be shocked if it legs its way to $150M in an absolute best case scenario. The Whale's weekend is a bit underwhelming but should pick up once Oscar noms come out. M3Gan looks to coast to $100M+. Avatar needs a 6.02 multiplier from here on out to beat TGM. Feels like we'll need another month to see how this goes. Plane did ALOT better than I was expecting. For me its the biggest surprise of the weekend. He's been playing this niche since Olympus Has Fallen quite well and audiences seems to still show up for him. Lots of 300 goodwill still even 16 years on but know how loved that movie was. Its feeling a lot like Liam's post Taken roles where he can be hanging out with wolves and people show up. We only had one $90M+ weekend total during the Jan/Feb. 2022 period (Feb. long weekend) and we've already had the first two weekends of Jan. do it so the box office is surprisingly resilient right now for what was supposed to be a down period. M3Gan, Otto, Plane and Puss and Avatar as holdovers has made it quite solid run so far in 2023. We have 5 movies with 3day weekends of $10M+ in the middle of Jan. We only had TWO movies make more than $5.5M both Christmas and New Years weekend so to see 5 make $10M each is rather astonishing. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Jan 13-16 weekend thread |
Don't mess with the Morb!
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