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| January 20-22 Predictions https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89770 |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | January 20-22 Predictions |
Missing- 7m The Son- Is this still releasing this week? Sub 2m Women Talking- 3m |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Two weekends ago Otto played strongest in the heartland (Dallas, Chicago, Phoenix, Salt Like City, as well as Columbus, Minneapolis, Nashville and Milwaukee). This weekend it went nationwide. Curious how WOM translates here but wouldn't be shocked by it possibly rising to #2 over the next few weeks. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Missing could go as high as Plane numbers but $6-$8m is probably where it will end up which would be decent. The other openers are duds. Agreed that Otto will hold well over the next month. So to will Puss and Avatar offcourse. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
No wide release for Women Talking this weekend https://deadline.com/2023/01/the-whale- ... 235222492/ |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Otto grossed a whopping $2,210,000 on Tuesday dropping just 14% from MLK day. It's at $23,836,472 but with a daily like that, even with discount Tuesday this could beat last weekend's $12,828,785 3day. WOM is clearly getting out there. Also, did you know apparently no NYC or LA theaters are in Otto's top 50 theaters? It's playing strongly in the heartland and at the rate its going I'm expecting a mini TGM here in terms of legs and durability with it resonating so well. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Business will pick up in NY/LA, no? Not everyone there is an elitist haha |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Otto is having a very strange box office run and giving eerie nostalgia vibes of the early days of MBFGW. Played weekend 1 in 4 theaters in LA/NYC for $14,064 PTA. Distributors were underwhelmed. Played weekend 2 in 637 theaters where PTA only dropped in half but biggest business was in the heartland. Played weekend 3 in 3800 theaters where PTA dropped a little less than half to $3,374 and with no LA/NYC in sight in the top 50 theaters. Otto could very well turn the adult skewing film release pattern of the last two years on its head. A limited NYC/LA run didn't give Otto much buzz to translate it to a wider success, it's middle of the country mid level expansion did. That clearly also elevated TGM to record setting heights. It's PTA holds have been exceptional to lose 76% from 4 theaters to 3800. It's coming from 3 of the 4 producers behind My Big Fat Greek Wedding so I wonder if we are on the cusp of that type of run. Deadline article has more context here: https://deadline.com/2023/01/a-man-call ... 235223501/ |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Otto will be over 10m again this weekend. |
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| Author: | O [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Avatar: The Way of Water $2,800,000 -38% $574,482,103 A Man Called Otto $2,210,000 $23,836,472 M3GAN $1.4M -48% PUSS IN BOOTS 2 $1.2M -20% PLANE $1M Otto within 21% of Avatar.  Though Avatar plays less well midweek compared to weekends I wonder if Otto has a chance at winning the last weekend of Jan?
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
O wrote: It's PTA holds have been exceptional to lose 76% from 4 theaters to 3800. It's coming from 3 of the 4 producers behind My Big Fat Greek Wedding so I wonder if we are on the cusp of that type of run. Deadline article has more context here: https://deadline.com/2023/01/a-man-call ... 235223501/ Not a chance. These are different times. It will be leggy but I don't know if we will ever see something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding again. |
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| Author: | Steve [ Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Magic Mike wrote: Not a chance. These are different times. It will be leggy but I don't know if we will ever see something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding again. I agree that it’s extremely unlikely, and I think the same thing could’ve been said about an uber-blockbuster performing like Top Gun Maverick. I think the different times argument could be made in favor of these “never see a performance like that” potentials too. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Thu Jan 19, 2023 5:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Steve wrote: Magic Mike wrote: Not a chance. These are different times. It will be leggy but I don't know if we will ever see something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding again. I agree that it’s extremely unlikely, and I think the same thing could’ve been said about an uber-blockbuster performing like Top Gun Maverick. I think the different times argument could be made in favor of these “never see a performance like that” potentials too. I do agree. But Top Gun is also a movie that benefits from the big screen. Otto will play the same at home. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Missing preview $760,000 |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Jan 20, 2023 6:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
That's quite good for it. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Friday #'s starting to come: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $2,750,000 -10% $117,710,470 M3GAN $2,620,000 -46% $66,107,510 The Whale $360,930 -16% The Fabelmans $120,000 -11% $14,666,575 With the inflated Sunday from last weekend's holiday, Puss could still manage a 20% drop this weekend. It's 31st day is just 14.1% below its 1st! |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Fantastic hold for Puss. It's proving to be very leggy. Compared to all of the strong Friday to Friday holds for adult skewing movies like The Whale and The Fabelmans that Friday to Friday drop for Otto is pretty bad. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Avatar's looking like it might just pass $20M for maybe a high 30% drop for the weekend. Would need a 7.0 multiplier to get to TGM so now without a re-release of some sort it's looking like less of a possibility. Missing did great. It made in 1 day what it could have over the weekend. It's budget is only $4.2M so it's already a massive success and going to be highly profitable. First underwhelming # for Otto in a while. Made $2,188,354 on Tuesday so $2.6M Friday feels like it should have been much more. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Puss in Boots is doing really fantastic. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Some weekend #'s Avatar: The Way of Water $19,685,000 -40% $597,961,353 Puss in Boots $11.5M -21% $126,460,470 M3GAN $9.8M -46% $73,287,510 Missing $9.3M (already over its $7M budget) A Man Called Otto $9,000,000 -30% $35,346,249 Plane $5,250,000 -49% $19,457,616 House Party $1,775,000 -55% $7,185,508 That Time I Got Reincarnated As a Slime: Scarle… $1,459,515 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $1,397,000 -43% $451,877,752 The Whale $1,281,249 -15% $13,191,971 The openers overall in January have mostly all overperformed or at least met expectations. Puss In Boots only dropped 21% due to the steeper Sunday drop from the holiday last week. Otherwise it's Fri/Sat drops average to about 10%. I expect it could drop close to there next weekend for another $10M+ weekend. Puss needs a 7.39 multiplier from here on out to get to $200M. It's still a ways away but if it can hold on to theaters until Mario has a dark horse chance to happen. I have it projected at about $175M-180M total right now. Avatar now needs a 7.15 multiplier to get to TGM which doesn't look like it will happen. Feels like it will make it up to #7 on the all time domestic chart to beat Avengers: Infinity War's $678,815,482 but just miss BP1's $700,426,566. Otto dropped more than expected from some of its dailies but 30% off a holiday weekend isn't bad either. Would probably have dropped mid 20s otherwise. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Impressive start for Missing. Should be able to reach Searching's total at least but could definitely surpass it. Should hold pretty well next weekend. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Bigger drop for Avatar, and the actual could be lower with all the snow today. Though it is coming off a holiday weekend I suppose. Looks like it'll have one more week at #1 as even a mid opening for Knock At The Cabin should be enough to take the top spot. Doing Searching from the kid's point of view instead of the parent makes it much less depressing and thus more accessible. I wasn't expectng Missing to do so well, but now that it has it seems obvious. |
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| Author: | pookpooi [ Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
The Way of Water still has the highest average per theater this weekend. It actually made more than twice of a Man Called Otto despite having less theatre count. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
pookpooi wrote: The Way of Water still has the highest average per theater this weekend. It actually made more than twice of a Man Called Otto despite having less theatre count. 
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| Author: | O [ Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Avatar continues to dominate the box office, earning $20,133,106 this weekend and showing a strong hold despite a 38.7% drop from last weekend's results. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish came in a close second, with a solid performance and an 18.4% drop from last weekend's results. M3GAN also had a strong showing, earning $9,704,905 and showing a 47% drop from last weekend's results. All in all, it was a competitive weekend at the box office with some films holding strong and others showing a decline. Spoiler: show |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: January 20-22 Predictions |
Spoiler: show |
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