Domestic:

1. The Little Mermaid- $486.3M

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3- $425M

3. The Marvels- $400M

4. Indiana Jones 5- $375M

5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania- $325M

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom- $310M

7. Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One- $290M

8. Elemental- $250M

9. Barbie- $230M

10. Oppenheimer- $200M

Worldwide:

1. The Little Mermaid- $1.135B

2. Indiana Jones 5- $975M

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3- $950M

4. The Marvels- $925M

5. Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One- $900M

6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom- $875M

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania- $790M

8. Elemental- $650M

9. Barbie- $600M

10. Oppenheimer- $550M

1) Mario $475M
2) MI $380M
3) Ant Man $375M
4) Marvels $375M
5) Guardians $370M
6) Across The Spiderverse $350M
7) Little Mermaid $350M
8) Elemental $275M
9) Aquaman $270M
10) FastX $250M
11) Barbie $200M
12) Oppenheimer $200M
13) John Wick $190M
14) SW $180M
15) IJ $185M
16) Exorcist $150M
17) Hunger Games $150M

Was putting a list of 10 together but just adding some that missed the list. Mario wasn't in your top 10 but I'm feeling it could have a chance to take the year, especially worldwide.

We have no trailers for anything, its too early

Elemental looks like it has big potential based on its teaser. Love story between water and fire sounds intriguing. The merchandise opps look plentiful too.

1. The Little Mermaid 410m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 405m
3. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 390m
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 370m
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie 365m
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 320m
7. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom- 270m
8. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 260m
9. The Marvels 250m
10. Dune Part 2 210m

Could def. see Flash breaking out if it as good as everyone says

Not with Ezra Miller in the lead. I'd be predicting 300m for it if it weren't for him

I expect a Black Adam type performance as is

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part I
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
7. Elemental
8. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
10. Fast X

I see a lot of flops and underperformers on the horizon. Black Little Mermaid is a tough sell globally no matter what Disney's publicists do. The only reason Captain Marvel was huge was because it was marketed as an Avengers tie-in prequel, with that factor gone... good luck. Indiana Jones when Harrison Ford is practically dead is just not the same. Guardians also feels overexposed and passe at this point. No one asked for a Hunger Games prequel. Oppenheimer screams bomb (no pun intended).

On the other hand, there are some films poised to do well. Aquaman, Spider-Verse and Dune are sequels to well-received first installments. Super Mario Bros has a lot going for it. Mission Impossible will benefit from Top Gun reigniting goodwill in the closeted scientologist. The Fast and Furious continues to appeal to its sub 70 IQ target audience.

My only firm guess is that Mario is going to be #1. I don't see a more broadly-appealing film coming out next year.

Next year I can't see anything over 450m but depth will be FAR better than 2021/2022. Should see at least 25 if not 30 films over 100m total and plenty of films in the 40-90m range as well.

Deadline reckons box office will be back up to $9-10 billion next year. I think that's a bit optimistic, but hoping I'm wrong.

I think $9b is doable - not as optimistic about $10b.

While the heights of 2022 may not be reached - Maverick and Avatar + two Marvel $400m+ films - the depth of hits should be larger and you would think that will result in a bigger overall gross.

The total number of films released will also be critical. 2022 had far too few wide releases (I believe the average gross per film was on par with 2019) - so an increase in films would be welcome.

Also important will be whether families flock back to the cinema for animated fair in big numbers. I believe they will for the right film (I.e. Mario) but Disney/Pixar appears to be wounded and won’t replicate pre-2020 success anytime soon.

Finally - the studios will need to ensure the August to November corridor is not left barron like it was this year. A strong $1b could be found in this corridor alone.

I think Dial of Destiny wins domestic and either Mario or Little Mermaid worldwide. Guardians will be top marvel around $400M. Quantumania will outgross The Marvels with like $325M v $310M. Dead Reckoning will open bigger but probably not have the same 3.5+ multiplier of Fallout and Rogue Nation. Elemental and Wish should be bounce backs for Disney animation so long as they don't mess it up with streaming.