I've not seen anything Avatar-esque about The Way of Water's numbers yet. It seems to be playing like a normal blockbuster. The Christmas and New Year period disguises things somewhat, but all films usually hold well. Its 3-day second weekend drop is 52%. So when the trades do the click-baity thing of saying its second weekend is nearing $100 million, I can't share their enthusiasm. I'll wait for its fourth weekend to see how comparable it is to a Top Gun: Maverick or a Titanic-type run with insane holds. It opened a week before Christmas to $134 million, so naturally its second weekend is going to be big, but it needed the 4-day number to look respectable. Being buoyed by Christmas can hide its normal blockbuster performance.

I don't think it'd be reasonable to expect this to come anywhere close to the first one's legs (or even TG:M which was sort of its own unique phenomenon distinct from the original's run over 30 years ago). Best case scenario was always going to be playing well over the holidays and benefiting from an empty January, although it is the opening on the lower end of expectations that puts the domestic total ceiling where it is now.

Well it was 109 million behind Rise of Skywalker on Saturday. Monday it's 84.3 behind. Should only be about 25-35 million behind it by next Monday. I think it should make a good run for 550 million, and 13th all time domestic. I agree the first was always out of reach. Anything over 475 million is a win IMO

Rogue One dropped a 58.7% without a GIGANTIC storm through the weekend...

$550-$600m looks like where it is heading. I think something most of us have been predicting for years - a reasonable drop from the 1st but still substantial $$.

Furthermore, pre 2020 we were spoiled for films just over-achieving to mammoth numbers (500m+) even without having much of a cultural impact (e.g. Beauty and the Beast, Incredibles 2, Rogue One, The Lion King 2019)

Times have changed. It was right timing. Disney remade their biggest hits, and played with the new properties to their potential. little Mermaid was never going to be that big, but I’m sure they’ll blame the casting. Outside of Marvel (and really just avengers and wolverine’s return) they don’t have many 300+ films for 2-3 years. I’ll always have hope for Indy 5 though.

Regarding Indy, that is not surprising given your icon photo.

Well even crystal Skull is is 400+ so I don’t think think almost 15 days to itself during 4th of July is an insane get.

Nothing went wrong. Looks like it could make $600M domestic, which is very good. It's doing extremely well in overseas markets, even with China being a deflated market at the moment. They have room to grow with the next Avatar movie in a couple years.

Many people point out that Ant-Man 3 will stop Avatar 2's rampage run, but what if Ant-Man flop? And there's significant chance it might happened considering that recently even a good sequel like Wakanda Forever has 40% worldwide drop compare to the first film.

Even if it underperforms, it is not "flopping". It will be big enough by default and virtue of it being a blockbuster to unseat Avatar: The Way of Water, which will be virtually dead by then.

The absurdity of this thread is being spelled out by one simple question:

What other movie do you see on the horizon to do $2b+ WW?

Things might turn out alright for this one, but I don't see it lasting. Avatar's success is entirely GP fueled (it doesn't really have a fanbase) and I don't see the GP sticking around for 3 more movies.

I second that. The third installment will not get over 1.5b worldwide. If the trailer is not outstanding, I see 1.5b max for Avatar 3.

When will you learn not to doubt James Cameron

Good time to highlight this again

The opening weekend and Japan numbers deserved an overeaction. We all knew it would have strong staying power throughout the holidays (all the way to MLK day.) $600M looks likely now, and thats great obviously, but we also all know that Cameron wanted the domestic #1 back from Force Awakens. He'll just have to settle for being king of the world.

If Cameron can't do it, will any movie ever be able to hit one billion domestic?

One of the Avatar sequels for sure cause they’ll only get bigger & better

Nah, each avatar will do less, 5 films is ridiculous for this series. The way Cameron works we will all be dead before part 5 comes out, I expect part 5 around 2058

This thread should just be limited to Japan.

Don’t let your dislike for Avatar/JC make you post idiotic comments like that.

I really wonder how Avatar 3 is going to do.

What? I love JC and enjoyed the Avatar films. History does not go in its favor, especially if the wait time is less. It’s not like I said Avatar 5 will make 200 WW. They will be hits. I just wished he moved on. Make part 3 and be done with it

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/jame ... 235480925/

$1.4B was the actual break even point, per inside sources. Probably a similar number for Avatar 3 as well (or less). Needless to say Avatar 4/5 are happening.