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| Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89640 |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
The expectations game is pretty compelling when we look at things in retrospect. 36 year old sequel to film that won its year starring an actor who had never seen a $250M+ movie vs 13 year old sequel to film that became biggest of all time. Avatar had a level of expectations that TGM hadn't so the bar was always going to be higher for it to win over industry critics and fans because it had already set the bar so high with its predecessor and would be very difficult to reach an even higher peak. TGM was a movie that could have done $150M and probably still would have been considered a success since "adult audiences weren't coming to theaters yet" as rationale and it did great. $200M would have been seen as a success. $250M a monster success as it becomes Cruise's biggest film ever. $720M on the other hand was a whole other industry shaking level that will set the blueprint for decades to come on how Hollywood brings back long dormant IP to new audiences. It was literally a once in a lifetime type box office run that I consider one of the top 5 runs I've ever followed, which I never expected to happen in a year still impacted by a pandemic and so far from the early 2000s heyday of box office runs. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
publicenemy#1 wrote: With China holding better than expected it looks like 2 billion may happen afterall. Fucking James Cameron lol James Cameron indeed.  I said this somewhere in 2009....he just has a feel for how to craft a story that resonates with human beings. Lucas had it as well. He's tapped into that part of our brain. Incredible. The only exception was The Abyss and that was still a decent movie. I need to see it again. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
....is TGM domestic in trouble? I guess we'll have a good idea after the 1/6/23 weekend. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
lilmac wrote: ....is TGM domestic in trouble? James Cameron: "YES!" 
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| Author: | MadGez [ Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
TGM now no longer has domestic locked. Avatar will get close to $700m so it's not inconceivable that it surpasses TGM with a late push. I still want to see TGM to win out but now having seen Avatar 2 and shock horror kind of loving it, I'm OK with either winning domestic. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
It won't reach Maverick domestically. But it will be sad to look at the 2022 worldwide chart and not see Maverick sitting on top. It did enough to deserve that, and it's been ripped away at the last second. It is like losing the World Cup final in the 120'+3 minute. 
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| Author: | Rev [ Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Algren wrote: It won't reach Maverick domestically. But it will be sad to look at the 2022 worldwide chart and not see Maverick sitting on top. It did enough to deserve that, and it's been ripped away at the last second. It is like losing the World Cup final in the 120'+3 minute. 
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| Author: | JustLurking [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 8:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Algren wrote: It won't reach Maverick domestically. But it will be sad to look at the 2022 worldwide chart and not see Maverick sitting on top. It did enough to deserve that, and it's been ripped away at the last second. It is like losing the World Cup final in the 120'+3 minute. It was always very unlikely to take WW in a year with A2. Good for it that it (probably) takes domestic, but the international total is just not enough to keep up. Even without the China factor it was going to get blown out. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 8:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Yeah, I suppose you're right. But I wouldn't say every man and his dog was expecting an Avatar sequel to repeat the uber-numbers of the 2009 original. It wasn't a foregone conclusion like it feels now with the luxury of hindsight. There was a lot of uncertainty around it and its brand appeal after a 13 year gap, whether the world and characters were popular enough, did anyone care? etc. etc. so I thought that $1.48 billion would've been enough to ward off a successor to the 2022 crown. I'm just sad is all. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Avatar 2 does NOT take anything away from TGM's amazing performance last summer. Not at all! |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
As long as it doesn't take the domestic crown from TGM, which it thankfully probably won't, I'm fine. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Cynosure wrote: As long as it doesn't take the domestic crown from TGM, which it thankfully probably won't, I'm fine. Well go ahead and prepare NOT to be fine in about a month or so |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Worldwide it will pass it within days but that was very expected no? $1.48B is only little more than half what Avatar 2009 made. Domestic, I still don't see how Avatar 2 gets to $700M. The math isn't mathing. $600M is very very likely at this point but it would need absolutely ridiculous holds throughout January and February to get higher. And with a looming Disney+ release I just don't see it. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
I think MLK weekend will be more telling on where it will end up domestically but considering how well it did the past week and how barren the market will be (will probably play through Feb and March) I don't see this collapsing. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Avatar predicted weekends going forward until Ant-Man Jan 6-8 37m Jan 13-15 25m Jan 20-22 18m Jan 27-29 14m Feb 2-4 10m Feb 9-11 10m (Valentines day bump) That's when i expect it will really start losing theaters and having bigger drops |
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| Author: | Rev [ Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
zwackerm wrote: Avatar predicted weekends going forward until Ant-Man Jan 6-8 37m Jan 13-15 25m Jan 20-22 18m Jan 27-29 14m Feb 2-4 10m Feb 9-11 10m (Valentines day bump) That's when i expect it will really start losing theaters and having bigger drops your numbers brings it to 560m with just wknds. add, at minimum, another 100m in weekdays gross and it's 660m (58m short of TGM)  yah TGM domestic is going down
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| Author: | JustLurking [ Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Algren wrote: Yeah, I suppose you're right. But I wouldn't say every man and his dog was expecting an Avatar sequel to repeat the uber-numbers of the 2009 original. It wasn't a foregone conclusion like it feels now with the luxury of hindsight. There was a lot of uncertainty around it and its brand appeal after a 13 year gap, whether the world and characters were popular enough, did anyone care? etc. etc. so I thought that $1.48 billion would've been enough to ward off a successor to the 2022 crown. I'm just sad is all. Yeah, but it didn't really need the success of the original to beat TGM. 1.5b is an insane number for TGM, but A2 would've had to drop nearly 50% of the original to miss it. Even with a lot going badly (bad ERs, troubled china) that's asking a lot. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Wed Jan 04, 2023 12:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Cynosure wrote: As long as it doesn't take the domestic crown from TGM, which it thankfully probably won't, I'm fine. What will you do if it does? :-) |
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| Author: | Rev [ Wed Jan 04, 2023 1:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
lilmac wrote: Cynosure wrote: As long as it doesn't take the domestic crown from TGM, which it thankfully probably won't, I'm fine. What will you do if it does? :-) #therapy |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Jan 06, 2023 5:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Maverick has lost the worldwide crown. 1. Avatar: The Way of Water $1,516,558,728 2. Top Gun: Maverick $1,488,732,821 |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jan 08, 2023 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Avatar needs a 5.49X multiplier for the rest of its run to beat TGM domestically. This 4th weekend made the case. With MLK it's now looking at a strong possibility and topping the original Avatar while a stretch isn't impossible if it holds well post MLK weekend. |
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| Author: | pookpooi [ Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
BoxOfficeMojo projects $641M-$769M for final the Way of Water domestic number. |
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| Author: | rftapeout [ Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
When Deadline announced that the first weekend global box office was over $400 million, I estimated that Avatar 2 would end its domestic run at around $550 million. Way of the Water has done better than I expected. I think the first real test of its domestic run is the 4th Monday's box office since the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd Monday was really close to an actual holiday. I believe it will end over $650 million. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
Top Gun still has the edge but it should bare minimum finish with well over 600m, which is honestly about as well as most people thought it would do before we got caught up in the hype right before it opened. We also expected more of a sprint than a marathon |
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| Author: | Jiffy [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick |
pookpooi wrote: BoxOfficeMojo projects $641M-$769M for final the Way of Water domestic number. Have they been doing BO analysis articles this whole time and I just missed them? |
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