World of KJ
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/

World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89627		 Page 14 of 21
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon May 08, 2023 10:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
I thought the Please Don’t Destroy Film was part of the draft, but I don’t see it in the spreadsheet? Am. I crazy?

Regardless it got sent straight to streaming.
Author:  Algren [ Tue May 09, 2023 4:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
It was never part of the draft as far as I recall. I had it on my list as a possible replacement option, so now thanks to you I can remove it.
Author:  Algren [ Thu May 18, 2023 9:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
It was announced today that Harold and the Purple Crayon has moved to 2nd August 2024.

That was my fifth round pick, so I will replace it with The Boogeyman.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu May 18, 2023 10:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
I wonder why that movie seems to be having post production problems.
Author:  Algren [ Thu May 18, 2023 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Is there still an issue regarding the VFX industry? Where there just aren't enough artists and technicians to work on an ever-increasing load of VFX-heavy movies?
Author:  Shack [ Thu May 18, 2023 1:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023


This is a September theatrical. Good replacement pick for someone.
Author:  Algren [ Thu May 18, 2023 2:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
The only thing that led me away from The Creator is it being in September. Otherwise I'd have chosen it.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu May 18, 2023 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
The Creator hopefully can do a solid 70-80m
Author:  stuffp [ Fri May 19, 2023 7:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
On the one hand could have some potential, on the other hand it could just be another 65.
Author:  Shack [ Mon May 22, 2023 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Riggs made an excellent top 2 picks in Spiderverse and Dune 2
Author:  Algren [ Tue May 23, 2023 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Even so early on I can kind of make a case for my picks being the only ones with enough of a punch to catch stuffp. But we'll see. Maybe The Little Mermaid does Beauty and the Beast numbers, and Across the Spider-Verse does Incredibles 2 numbers.
Author:  Shack [ Tue May 23, 2023 2:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Indy with the 2nd overall pick ain't it. I got suckered in by Maverick.
Author:  Algren [ Tue May 23, 2023 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
To have a shot at winning this game you need two big picks. stuffp has one humungous one, so his second pick (Oppenheimer) can be just $80-120m and he's good for being in contention, providing his others do respectable obviously.

Second place right now is MadGez who is about $170 million behind and he's already used his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks. So he's out of it with only Wonka left.

Third place right now is Flava'd who is $200 million behind and his top pick underwhelmed. So he needs to rely on Elemental and Meg 2. They'll need about $400 million combined to even stand a sniff of a chance. So he's out.

Fourth place is SolC9 who is $250 million behind, and his first pick has another $50-100m left in the tank (GotG3) and his second pick shat the bed. He'll need a minor miracle from his 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks to contend.

Fifth place is Rev who is $300 million behind. The Marvels could surprise, but is it REALLY going to do the numbers needed? Fast X looks to be doing fairly in-line numbers with the franchise. Then there's just two horrors left for Rev. Out of the four mentioned thus far he does have the best shot, imo.

Sixth place is Corpse. The jury is still out on The Little Mermaid and The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. Not much to go on yet but his third place pick failed to reach even $100 million, which isn't promising in a game where you need every round's pick to maximise their potential. Ghostbusters 5 could make up for some shortcomings, though. So Corpse is one to watch, imo.

Seventh place is zwackerm who hasn't had any of his first six be released yet. But the top two are Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and Barbie. While there's an argument that The Flash could reignite some interest in DC again and perhaps help the ocean-dweller, it feels like the character of Aquaman was a one-and-done project. And Barbie is a bit of a wildcard. Could do $45 million, could do $120 million - either way, for a 2nd round pick it won't be enough. Can it realistically, or even optimistically, do the $300 million it would need to catch stuffp? I don't see it.

Eighth place is Riggs who has Across the Spider-Verse and Dune Part 2 as his top picks. Personally I don't see them being big (or big enough) to win the game, but people seem to think Miles Morales has the $300 million ticket with ease. If that's the case then he's still out of contention unless Chalamet and Zendaya bring in another $300 million, and with the first making just over $108 million, I don't see it. Unfortunately, Riggs' 3rd and 4th picks did nothing, so it all rests on pick 1+2 for him. He's out, imo.

Ninth place is Shack who has Indy 5 and Wish. Admittedly I don't know much about Wish apart from it being another Disney animation. He could be in with a shot if that does well because I see Indy overcoming its reviews to pull in big numbers again - perhaps $300 million is in store again. But even if it's just shy he still has Blue Beetle, No Hard Feelings, and The Equalizer 3 to make up the difference (although all those three also have their issues).

Tenth place is me, and I genuinely think my top 3 are well placed to usurp stuffp alone; M:I-7 can do $280-$320 million, The Flash can do the same, and Rise of the Beasts can plug some gaps even if it does $85 milion, but I think the range is more likely $100-120 million, then I've still got Migration and The Boogeyman, which I think will be a bit of a summer horror surprise, and Migration will be Illumination's fall sleeper. I'm not saying I'm a shoe-in, no way. stuffp will be a tough cookie to catch because he's already at let's call it $600 million, and I have only $20 million, but I do have all of my biggies to come, and his Oppenheimer 2nd round pick isn't looking all that rosy. His third round pick, Kraven the Hunter also whiffs a bit of Morbius. Gran Turismo (his 5th pick) isn't going to come to his aid either. The only one that could secure his win is if Trolls Band Together manages to reach the original movie's level again ($150 million) - they still seem popular. And right now, in a November with only Wish, it can definitely co-exist.

So I'd say right now it is stuffp's to lose, but the best contenders to surpass him are me, then Shack, Corpse, and Rev. But it's going to be hard, because he's already at $600 million and still has Oppenheimer, Kraven the Hunter, Trolls Band Together, and Gran Turismo to go, which even if they all do an average of $50 million each still makes him more-or-less uncatchable. Maxing out a pick is the best fortification one can do in this game.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Tue May 23, 2023 3:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Indy with the second pick is fine. And you have Wish which will probably gross 2-3x Elemental. Stuffp will win because people in top half, myself most of all, did not predict the decline of the MCU and extinction of the DCEU. I'm glad to be wrong about the bottom half people having no chance though. Makes the game more exciting. And I can avoid last place. :hahaha:
Author:  Algren [ Tue May 23, 2023 4:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
I will say this, though: zwackerm is actually nicely set up. He's in 7th place solely on the strength of his last two picks. Those amount to $85 million. To put that in perspective, my last two picks amount to $20 million. Jesus came through for him there. So he could surprise, I just feel in a game where the round 1 and 2 picks are so damn weighty, having Aquaman 2 and, more importantly, Barbie, just isn't a good basis to win the game, especially when we know he will need to make about $600 million from those two picks to stand a chance. True Love, Strays, and The Last Voyage of the Demeter aren't going to be of much help. Though, Haunted Mansion could make sizeable coin.

If stuffp is the 8/11 favourite, I would say I am next with about 4/1, then Shack, Corpse and Rev with odds of between 8/1 and 12/1, then zwackerm with 16/1. The rest, imo, are long outsiders. We're talking between 100/1 and 1000/1 odds.

I mean, look at it; Wonka will need to gross $400 million for Gez to stand a chance. And his films even did rather well. Scream VI, M3GAN, and John Wick: Chapter 4 all over-performed relative to expectations, but not enough for it to matter in this game. Unless the American populace suddenly acquires an Avatar-level taste for Agatha Christie mysteries, MadGez is out of the game. I don't think a reputable bookmaker would even GIVE odds for MadGez, lol. Sorry to harp on about your lack of a chance, Gez. ;)
Author:  Shack [ Tue May 23, 2023 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Mario and Oppenheimer isn't an untouchable top 2 cause Oppenheimer could be like 150. So if your 2nd biggest film makes 300 you have a chance to make up some ground even if your biggest film is smaller than Mario. The 550 mil cap is useful to our chances since Mario is there already and would have padded on quite a bit more.
Author:  Algren [ Tue May 23, 2023 4:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
In theory, yes. But Mario is basically going to be the same value as two of anybody's top picks. I mean, I just don't see any 1+2 round picks films getting $600m combined, do you? Well, apart from mine.

stuffp basically has $650 million as his round 1+2 picks. I don't see how that can be beaten.

Can any other single film in the entire draft even make $400 million? I don't see that either.
Author:  Rev [ Tue May 23, 2023 4:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
if Fast X had topped 100m opening weekend maybe I would've had a shot at catching stuffp :lol: but ain't no way now
Author:  Algren [ Tue May 23, 2023 4:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Rev wrote:
if Fast X had topped 100m opening weekend maybe I would've had a shot at catching stuffp :lol: but ain't no way now


You have a great round 3 (Creed III). It'll probably win the round. If round 4 and 5 (Insidious: Red Door and Saw X) do well you could still be in with a shot. It's just looking a bit unlikely is all. The Marvels would need to really surprise, and the general feeling is that it won't.
Author:  Rev [ Tue May 23, 2023 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Algren wrote:
Rev wrote:
if Fast X had topped 100m opening weekend maybe I would've had a shot at catching stuffp :lol: but ain't no way now


You have a great round 3 (Creed III). It'll probably win the round. If round 4 and 5 (Insidious: Red Door and Saw X) do well you could still be in with a shot. It's just looking a bit unlikely is all. The Marvels would need to really surprise, and the general feeling is that it won't.


The Marvels over performing (400m +) would be fucking amazing & have all the neckbeard tubers crying :lol:
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed May 24, 2023 9:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Something unexpected will break our big this summer and make this competitive
Author:  stuffp [ Thu May 25, 2023 12:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
Yeah, probably Oppenheimer :P
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu May 25, 2023 1:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
stuffp wrote:
Yeah, probably Oppenheimer :P


Or Barbie lol
Author:  Algren [ Sun May 28, 2023 9:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
There's surely no way The Expendables 4 is coming out this year. It's basically June and still there's nothing. Unfortunately for Riggs (or maybe fortunately, he can pick a nice replacement) I just see it going to streaming if it absolutely comes out this year. It's already missed the chance of coming out at the cinema, particularly as they usually come out in August. I cannot see it switching to a fall or holiday release.
Author:  Algren [ Mon May 29, 2023 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: World of KJ Box Office Draft 2023
SolC9 wrote:
I'll take Five Nights at Freddy's


I just saw the trailer for this and it looks like a rip-off of Willy's Wonderland.
Page 14 of 21 All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/