Black Adam- 67m
Ticket to Paradise- 24m

Hopefully Banshees of Inisherin can have a big PTA as well. Probably my most anticipated of Oscar season

Top four

1. Black Adam $60 million
2. Halloween Ends
3. Ticket to Paradise $14 million
4. Smile

Looking to be the biggest weekend in a while.

Black Adam : $88m
Ticket to Paradise : $26m

Gonna go with $64m for Black Adam.

Black Adam has little to no hype, but its still a big movie that will be entertaining. People know this, and they'll turn up. $62M opening with a chance of legging it to $190-195M (cause movies aren't allowed to gross between $200-300m anymore apparently.)

Ticket to Paradise should do decent, and then we'll have to hear about it from Billy Eichner, but I think this would have been a mega smash if it opened over Thanksgiving and thus was able to collect all those Xmas weekdays at the end of its run. I'll give it $18M for now with a $90M total.

Halloween Ends will drop 70%+ to under $10M and be defeated by Smile. Reception is mixed, I liked it, but one thing that is undeniable is that the movie that was marketed was not the movie that audiences received. That almost always leads to horrific legs.

Reviews are horrible. I am not expecting great walkups. Thinking 7m previews and 50m OW and finish around 125m domestic.

Can't believe Zaslav let this one be released! He seemed adamant about canceling and/or delaying films that'd damage their brand...

That Monday number for Halloween Ends is bad. It's been out 3 days and it's already in the $1-2m daily bracket. It couldn't even be something like $2.3m, let alone what it should be; $2.7m-ish. This just adds to its awful start, what with the lower and lower and lower weekend estimate reporting, it feels doomed - and it's unfortunate because it's not a bad movie. I wouldn't be surprised if Smile beats it this weekend, or at least is level with it.

lol, I noticed that too.

But Black Adam feels like the most likely out of all the remaining 2022 movies to finish in there.

It's true, they're not good. Even though its Rotten vs. Fresh count is about even, the Fresh reviews are hardly positive about it. Here's some excerpts from so-called Fresh reviews:







These are positive reviews on the whole, but they don't feel as if they loved the film. More "I liked it but I'm embarrassed to admit it and I'm a critic so I need to be critical". The third excerpt is my favourite - in a film called Black Adam, yeah, ignore him, he's shit, lol

I'm not sure how bad reviews translates to business for a film like this. Is 53% even bad if someone is checking that wants to see it anyway? I mean, sure, 78% is better, but I don't know if reviews matter. It's a male-focused action superhero blockbuster ... I don't see people avoiding it because it has 53% instead of 60%.

Too be fair, 55% RT score for a wannabe Michael Bay popcorn crowd pleaser film is actually quite good. That is in line with Transformers, The Mummy, etc. Wouldn't be surprised if audiences are much more receptive.

With popcorn crowd pleasers, 55% is insanely better than 35% for example.

Reviews are not good but they are par for the course for DC films that are not Wonder Woman or Joker.

Down to 52% now.

The more it creeps to the 40s, I feel it can wave goodbye to a good run. Sure, Excel, 55% isn't 35%, but 48% (which is well within reach) is pretty much 40% in the eyes of a glancing moviegoer.

Why does Black Adam have a 200m budget? It's going to be a bomb based on that alone. it has to gross over 500m just to break even as a conservative guess. It could take up to 600m to break even on a 200m budget

Hobbs and Shaw had a $200 million production budget but still grossed $174 million domestically and $760 million worldwide. Black Adam has a real good shot at turning a profit even with a $200 million production budget. Hobbs and Shaw has a rotten tomatoes score of 68% critics and 88% audience (verified). It looks like Black Adam will eventually end up with a lower critics score but it should still turn a profit.

Black Adam will not have nearly the overseas appeal of Hobbs and Shaw, as that was a Fast and Furious movie. I would be shocked at more than 400m overseas. More likely it will do around 300-350m overseas. Recent first time outings for little known superheroes like Eternals, Shang Chi and Black Widow have done sub 300m overseas.

Thor 4 and The Batman barely broke $400m. $300 million here would be pretty surprising to me with worse exchange rates now. If it gets released in China, then maybe, I suppose.

Maybe this should have opened back in August. Feels "small-scale" here with audiences waiting for Black Panther in a few weeks and Avatar 2 in December.

Feel like The Rock vs superhero trends may help it overseas. Jumanji 1/2 did big business overseas far surpassing the original from 1995.

That was a crazy overperformance that can't be expected here, though its possible for sure

I think it definitely should’ve opened in August. Bros undoubtedly should’ve stuck with a summertime release date too.

People are just running with that throwaway line for the budget, eh? lol

2 overseas market we have data (Korea and France), start has been disastrous. Its below Shazam which had horrible OS run. So dont have crazy expectations for now.

Every comic book film post Covid has come in at bottom of expectations aside from NWH. This may just be the next in line and it may be time to start seriously lowering expectations for some of these films.

That said, even if this film simply does $300m global, it is still an introductory film and adding the character as a villain against a more high profile character (ahem SUPERMAN) will absolutely help solidify the tentpole status of that film.

As for BS, It is still at 55% RT after 82 reviews and its rating has improved significantly since the first 30 or so hit. This def. doesn't seem like a 30% clunker. 55% for popcorn crowd pleaser is absolutely fine.

Without a doubt, the late July day was much, much better.

Get those excuses in early, lol!