MadGez wrote:
It will have a big 5-day weekend and then strong legs through May. Though “Big” could mean anywhere $70-170m or so. I’m thinking between $70-$90m 5-day right now.
Actually I have no idea.
Actually I have no idea.
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| Author: | Steve [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
It’s an interesting one for sure. On one hand, Illumination Entertainment’s box office track record is insane, both with original properties as well as their Dr. Seuss movies. Then there’s the spectacle of the first ever animated movie featuring some of the most iconic and long standing IP / characters known worldwide. On the other hand, do people care or want to see what a Mario movie might have to offer? Right now I don’t really feel what the hook is but marketing muscle is starting to flex. Could it do extremely well based on walk-ups and capturing the zeitgeist as a must-see event? (thinking like how Shrek 2 exploded) Or will it be relegated to a ‘pretty good’ performance / a ‘really good’ one for a movie based on a videogame? I still have no idea, but could see OW anywhere from $60m to $130m at this point. |
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| Author: | O [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
All of your points are very spot on. I would personally say anything under Sonic would be disappointing to me because the Mario brand feels so much bigger than Sonic. Even if I have high hopes for it to win the year I'd still consider a $250M gross a win for it. Anywhere close to Lightyear would be a disaster but Nintendo had so much blowback from the live action film that hit their IP that I feel they were exceptionally careful this time around to have an all around quality film because they knew the risks of not having one could be disasterous. Though video game movies are notoriously finnicky so it's a big roll of the dice. The theme park opening Mario World though is a big, big plus for cross platform promotion and the movie can play essentially as an ad for the theme park and vice versa. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Eh I don't think there would be any rush for tickets to this. It's even having a 5-day weekend so gross will be spread out. |
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| Author: | O [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Randomly on topic, the studio dropped the final trailer in the last hour. Looks like a fun adventure pic and watching Mario Kart scenes in IMAX would really be something. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omio6iG9bX0 |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
I don't see a rush factor, but it's a kids movie first and foremost so that's not expected anyway. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Honestly I can't see this opening beyond the $60-$75M range. Could be even lower than that. I think people are underestimating how weird it is to have a character like Mario who is iconic for only saying "mama mia" suddenly have Chris Pratt voicing him. That approach didn't really go over well with Pokemon either (Ryan Reynolds voicing Pikachu) |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
It will have a big 5-day weekend and then strong legs through May. Though “Big” could mean anywhere $70-170m or so. I’m thinking between $70-$90m 5-day right now. Actually I have no idea. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
MadGez wrote: It will have a big 5-day weekend and then strong legs through May. Though “Big” could mean anywhere $70-170m or so. I’m thinking between $70-$90m 5-day right now. Actually I have no idea.
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Fri Mar 10, 2023 10:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
In the end its OD presales were not bad at all considering trailers announcing came late. Its definitely looking bigger than Sonic 2 at this point. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Mar 10, 2023 1:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Yeah this is one of my most anticipated for 2023, but I don't feel compelled to buy middle tickets right away like with Marvel movies. I wanna see it first day, but won't be upset if not. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Mar 10, 2023 1:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
People only buy tickets far out if they’re worried about sell outs. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Rev wrote: minimum 100m OW maximum 200m OW domestic minimum 400m domestic maximum 700m worldwide minimum 1 billion worldwide maximum 2 billion ALL THE MONEY!!! |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Fri Mar 10, 2023 7:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Checked opening night showtimes in my area and was surprised by how many already had 5-15 tickets sold. There's a Dolby screen where almost all of the up-charged seats are all sold already! Being 5-day throws off predicting how it'll do, but I definitely think it should be well above $100M by Easter Sunday. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
After another check presales are really uber strong. Early indications are around ~ 125m for 5 day. That plus 4 weeks of open runway means its going to go for Biggest illumination animated gross domestic. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
You don't need presales to know this will be super huge. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
155m | 445m |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
| Author: | Algren [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Good old Georgia! |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
My dude Toad deserved a few states |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Not Peach getting snubbed like that. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 11:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Bowser only winning the district of columbia seems fitting. 
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
All the politicians identify with him lol |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
I can't think of a more fitting symbol than that Bowser face |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
lilmac wrote: Looks good! I see slightly higher Sonic 2 numbers. Around $200M domestic. Revised my prediction, way up, to $350-$400M DOM. Buzz is high and it looks to be a 4 quadrant blockbuster. Also, $350/$400M isn't what it used to be. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Some of the theaters near me have scheduled 12:01am showtimes for Tuesday night since Universal isn't doing regular previews...and they're actually selling tickets? There's a Dolby screening that already has 19 tickets sold. For a midnight screening on a Tuesday night for an animated movie. Bananas. This feels like it has real biggest of the year potential, especially if Guardians 3 gets dragged down by Marvel Fatigue. |
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