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| October 7-9 Predictions https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89552 |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | October 7-9 Predictions |
Lyle Lyle Crocodile- 17m In a more competitive marketplace this bombs OW at least but I think it will overperform a little due to the barren marketplace Amsterdam- 10m Tar should have an enormous average and probably break the year to date PTA record with at lest 50k in its 4 theaters |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
I think Lyle will have a big opening. I'm thinking upwards of $28 million. Smile will also stay above $10 million because I have a sneaking feeling that it will open in the mid 20s this weekend. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
I think Lyle can do low 20's. Somehow Amsterdam is tracking in the teens to 20 Million. I'm not really confident it can do that. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
It does have a very star studded cast. But the reviews are really going to hurt it. 10m seems still doable after Joy did 17m with also mixed reviews |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Clifford did $17M Oct. 2021. Tom and Jerry did $14M Feb. 2021. Family film grosses were vastly depressed then but feel Lyle can definitely do $20M+. For now going with $31M. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Yeah I can actually see 30 for Lyle. I don't think it goes below 20 Million. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Last time a non sequel live action kids film opened to 20m+? Last time an original live action musical opened to 20m+? High teens would be great for it, the open market isn't going to turn a film in 2 historically hard to sell genres into a blockbuster. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Amsterdam reminds me of Monuments Men, which had us thinking it would flop after it got bad reviews but ended up performing respectably. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Last time a non sequel live action kids film opened to 20m+? Last time an original live action musical opened to 20m+? High teens would be great for it, the open market isn't going to turn a film in 2 historically hard to sell genres into a blockbuster. Come on, $30 million doesn't make it a blockbuster. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Lyle - $28m Amsterdam - $14m Smile - $12m |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Last time a non sequel live action kids film opened to 20m+? Last time an original live action musical opened to 20m+? High teens would be great for it, the open market isn't going to turn a film in 2 historically hard to sell genres into a blockbuster. I didn't even know it was a musical and I've seen the trailer twice.  I might not be alone in that. But it is Shawn Mendes and he has plenty of fans that might go. Though personally I think he looks unrecognizable in this  .
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| Author: | O [ Wed Oct 05, 2022 11:18 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
I read a few comments on Deadline that Lyle is the best kids film since Paddington. Even if it doesn't burst at OW would be great to have a leggy family film. The next one isn't until Strange World Nov. 23rd so Lyle has 7 weeks of family audience to itself. Even with a low $20s OW may be able to leg out to $100M if the quality is there. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Deadline says $11m for Lyle and $7.3m for Amsterdam.  Pretty disappointing if those materialize, though I am hopeful that Lyle has a big Saturday and Sunday to push it higher for the #1 spot. A $3 million Friday for a kids movie doesn't seem too bad, and is a near 100% increase on Saturday out of the question? |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
There's virtually nothing for families until Thanksgiving so could still see Lyle pull $80M if it gets past $15M. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
O wrote: There's virtually nothing for families until Thanksgiving so could still see Lyle pull $80M if it gets past $15M. Yeah, plus its RT audience score is 92%. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: October 7-9 Predictions |
Bombs away! |
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