Barrabás wrote:
Spider-Verse, M:I-7, Flashand Aquaman are the only ones who have a chance to join Mario. Lol at Oppenheimer being an option.
I wouldn't count Flash as one
after the recent 70m opening weekend projection (down from 100m +)
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| $1b movies of 2023 https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89550 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | $1b movies of 2023 |
It's this time of the year... Too bad the US-Dollar is so strong right now, otherwise we could see plenty of billionaires... You can re-vote until the poll closes... Here's the link to the 2022 poll: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88891 |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I struggle to see any of those make a billion right now. I'll revisit the voting closer to 2023. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Oof. From this list maybe... none? I think the ones that are slightly possible are Aquaman, Fast and Furious, Little Mermaid and maybe Marvels? Think Guardians will do Love and Thunder #s. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I'd say Tom Cruise strikes again if it had China but not sure it can do it without it Little Mermaid |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Mission and Fast look good. Fast 9 did $726,229,501 opening in spring 2021. Dollar impact of course but that last film's gross was ultra impacted by the pandemic and still did respectable. MI halo from TGM will be big. It will almost act like a follow up to TG despite being another franchise. Lots of goodwill that should help this vastly overperform. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Don't forget to vote! |
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| Author: | O [ Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
My vote stayed the same as last month, still feel Fast and MI will get there. I feel action movies with feel stunts, etc. may come back into vogue. There's definitely some superhero fatigue and TGM reminded a lot of moviegoers how fun movies can be with real stunt work. The fact that those actors learned to fly and did a lot of their own filming made it feel like something different from what we see usually. The Fast franchise has also resonated for so long because they've followed that formula along with MI. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I'm not confident in any of them. Not having China and Russia hurts most of them to the point that a major breakout (like TGM) is required. Even having China has proven a bit difficult, too, though (like JW3) due to exchange rates, but those could improve. I'm leaning toward Fast 10. Maybe The Little Mermaid... but it probably has to do $500m in the US to get there, which is certainly a reach since I think its performance in the rest of Asia will be underwhelming. MI7... It'd be very impressive if it got there, but I also wouldn't feel "impressed" if it did. Other than those three, I'd be surprised if anything else does so. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Clearly will be a weaker year at the box office than it should be. Most major titles have been delayed and this slate agile solid is unspectacular. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Nov 18, 2022 3:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I suppose the film with the best chance is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, so that's the only one I would choose. I'd say its chances are about 70% to make it. Others with decent chances would be Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (35%), Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (30%), and The Little Mermaid (25%). |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
The final Guardians film is certainly the best bet to do it. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sat Nov 19, 2022 1:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I would say none of the above. Marvel is impacted by China ban. Guardians 2 did a chunk its OS gross in china and that would be missing along with Russia(I am skeptical about it coming back quickly even if war ends). Plus Us being most hawkish of all countries means $ will continue to be strong. Marvels will drop huge from 1st movie. We need a Maverick kind of breakout which looks tough. MI movies have way lower ceiling domestic limits its chance. Plus most probably it wont release in China as well looking at how the market is going. Fast X even with china is way below its peak popularity and without Rock there is no chance of a big increase. None of the others have any chance. Aquaman did gross 1B+ with a huge china gross and I doubt that can be replicated plus I think its dropping domestic and $ will limit its rest of OS gross. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Nov 19, 2022 2:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I can't not see MI benefit somehow from the TGM spillover effect. Tom Cruise's follow up to a $700M+ film. Every one of those showings had a MI trailer. Just like Uncharted made a whole bunch more than it would have otherwise being the follow up to Spider-man for Holland. I think there is a serious chance of goodwill making it an outsized MI performance and not like the other movies in the franchise. Cruise is also king of the box office again and will likely headline the top film of the year for the first time ironically since 1986 when TG1 did it. Even if he's a 60 year old action star he build a lot of goodwill with conservative audiences where I could see MI overindex with them again though not at TGM level there will be some type of bump. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Nov 19, 2022 3:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
O wrote: I can't not see MI benefit somehow from the TGM spillover effect. Tom Cruise's follow up to a $700M+ film. Every one of those showings had a MI trailer. Just like Uncharted made a whole bunch more than it would have otherwise being the follow up to Spider-man for Holland. I think there is a serious chance of goodwill making it an outsized MI performance and not like the other movies in the franchise. Cruise is also king of the box office again and will likely headline the top film of the year for the first time ironically since 1986 when TG1 did it. Even if he's a 60 year old action star he build a lot of goodwill with conservative audiences where I could see MI overindex with them again though not at TGM level there will be some type of bump. I really want this to become true, I really do. But M:I films and it being a "part one" give me a feeling that it will, domestically, not pull its weight for a $1 billion finish. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I changed my votes. I'm in the "not sure anything will hit one billion" camp, but I think the three most likely are: Indiana Jones, Little Mermaid and Mission Impossible. Guardians is obviously most likely Marvel, but just doesn't seem like they can get there without China and Russia. I don't think any of the three I listed will get a release there either. Fast and Furious might, Transformers might. Feels like those two have a $200-210M ceiling in the US though and it'll be tough to make up so much elsewhere. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Nov 20, 2022 7:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Technically Fast X should have the best shot (assuming it gets China?) but perhaps even international audiences are getting fed up with the absurdity of the franchise by now? MI will get a boost from TGM but I can't see it hitting $1b, even if it does well over $300m domestically (which should happen). The Little Mermaid - who knows. Can't tell how big it will be at this point. Indy could be the dark horse I guess if it is TGM good. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Nov 20, 2022 12:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Fast X should be shown in China. It's Universal after all, and their films seem to be the only biggies to still be screened. But it depends what happens between the U.S. and China between now and May. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't shown in China despite the films technically being about American criminals. They're just too heroic and "America Fuck Yeah", and China will want as many tits for America's chip ban tat as they can. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I replaced "Blade" with "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" so please re-vote... |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
I went with 6 $1b movies... Details here: http://www.insidekino.com/Y/Fazit2022c.htm Last chance to vote btw... |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Now I think the ones with the best chances are Indiana Jones and maybe Super Mario if it really breaks put. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun May 28, 2023 12:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Well, they're dropping like flies... But: $1.276.7b THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun May 28, 2023 1:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Looks like the only one to me. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sun May 28, 2023 1:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Yeah I'm not sure if anything else will reach the mark this year. Best bet might honestly be M:I-7 if it can match the performance of the last two movies in China and over-perform everywhere else off of Maverick goodwill, but those are both pretty tall orders. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sun May 28, 2023 9:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Spider-Verse, M:I-7, Flash and Aquaman are the only ones who have a chance to join Mario. Lol at Oppenheimer being an option. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Mon May 29, 2023 9:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: $1b movies of 2023 |
Barrabás wrote: Spider-Verse, M:I-7, I wouldn't count Flash as one after the recent 70m opening weekend projection (down from 100m +)
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