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September 30-October 2 Predictions
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89536		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:49 am ]
Post subject:  September 30-October 2 Predictions
Smile- 17m
Bros 15m

Don't Worry Darling -45%

Sigourney Weaver/Kevin Kline drama The Good House is going wide as well but can't find a theater count.

Obviously the big movie of the week is Hocus Pocus 2. Probably could have done 50m OW. Oh well
Author:  O [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Hocus Pocus made 12% ($4,828,000) of it's initial run's box office ($39,514,713) in Oct. 2020 during the peaks of the pandemic.

Probably could have had an Austin Powers 2 type run where it has an OW over the total of it's predecessor. It has cross demographic appeal and probably could have done $150M+ imo. It was also the top grossing re-release out of all of the films coming back that year. It was also just 28% behind Tenet at #2 for the Oct. 2020 weekend it opened.

Probably the biggest theatrical wasted opportunity, slightly edging past Turning Red.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Hocus Pocus 2 I'll give $40M. A big hit, but I think some people would have been disappointed that it wasn't some $100M+ opening smash.

Smile looks like a cross of It Follows and The Ring and should do pretty well. $17M sounds about right, could see it going a little higher too.

Bros ... is appropriating straight culture with its titled and should be #cancelled. But seriously, it does feel like its simulataneously trying to annoy people (line from trailer - "I liked gay sex better before straight people were ok with it!!") and also ready to complain about people being too homophobic to watch it. Crazy Rich Asians was all about inviting white people into an exotic place that was also very familiar, complete with lots of food and travel porn. So, will the gays rally around this film and make it a big hit? We've seen them do it with music, but never with movies. I'll give it $11M.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
For me the most annoying lines in the ads are the, "Do you guys remember straight people?"/"Yeah they had a good run" exchange. Cringe. If you want to use it in the movie fine. But I feel like that line alienates a potential crossover audience.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
I do not have firsthand experience, but wouldn't a romance where the leads just happen to be gay be more appealing rather than making the whole movie about that fact?
Author:  Shack [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Gay Bridesmaids was a good idea but it came out in the wrong era where people are afraid to go all out with the R rated comedy jokes, and they seem to have messed it up with the lack of cast.
Author:  j_forest23 [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
For me the most annoying lines in the ads are the, "Do you guys remember straight people?"/"Yeah they had a good run" exchange. Cringe. If you want to use it in the movie fine. But I feel like that line alienates a potential crossover audience.


Yess I agree, but I will say that woman did make me laugh in her earlier scene in the trailer about Lesbian history month was hysterical :funny:. But yes as a gay man I think looks cringe and annoying as hell even if it’s as hilarious as I’ve heard. Waiting for streaming
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
I do not have firsthand experience, but wouldn't a romance where the leads just happen to be gay be more appealing rather than making the whole movie about that fact?


I think so. That's what I was hoping it would be. I wanted something I could take my straight friends to. Not sure how comfortable I'd be watching this with my friend and his girlfriend. I'm sure he'd go if I wanted him to. He did go see Love, Simon and Call Me By Your Name with me. But those weren't so obnoxiously gay. Love, Simon especially was very accessible.

I don't like that it seems like us vs. them with this movie. I don't see it like that at all. I and many gay people don't want that. I don't see myself as any different from the straight people in my life. The movie almost seems heterophobic. Maybe it's not like that at all and it's just the advertising. It all might work better over the course of a whole movie. I showed my boss the trailer and told her how I felt about it but she thought I was being crazy and that it looked really cute.

I was excited for this when it was announced but it's not really what I imagined it being. I'm still going to see it. Especially since reviews are great. But I'm not totally sold on it. I do like most Apatow produced movies though so fingers crossed.
Author:  Corpse [ Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Skimming the reviews, it doesn't sound like it's really aiming to be heterophobia. I'm sure there are some lines and/or scenes that some could find obnoxious or whatever in that way, but this definitely sounds like a firmly charming, heartfelt romcom, if frank, than gay joke after gay joke on straight people comedy.

That said, hopefully we do begin seeing gay characters / LGBTQ stories as regular old characters in regular old stories on screen. I mentioned this in The Sandman thread, but that show does an excellent job at doing this. There are many LGBTQ characters, but their orientation, relationships, etc., isn't addressed at all by anyone (one small scene aside). Everyone is handled equally, there's no separation.

But, there is a problem here still, in that some audiences get "offended" when they watch a movie or TV show or read a book, or whatever, and there are LGBTQ characters or themes in them. They act like there should be a warning, and would rather be aware of it. I think this is something that'll become a feeling of the past, hopefully soon, but for now, there seems to be a group of people that'll have a problem with any film/TV show that either makes it known there are LGBTQ characters/themes beforehand in the ads (like this movie) or don't (think Eternals), so...
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Corpse wrote:
Skimming the reviews, it doesn't sound like it's really aiming to be heterophobia. I'm sure there are some lines and/or scenes that some could find obnoxious or whatever in that way, but this definitely sounds like a firmly charming, heartfelt romcom, if frank, than gay joke after gay joke on straight people comedy.

That said, hopefully we do begin seeing gay characters / LGBTQ stories as regular old characters in regular old stories on screen. I mentioned this in The Sandman thread, but that show does an excellent job at doing this. There are many LGBTQ characters, but their orientation, relationships, etc., isn't addressed at all by anyone (one small scene aside). Everyone is handled equally, there's no separation.

But, there is a problem here still, in that some audiences get "offended" when they watch a movie or TV show or read a book, or whatever, and there are LGBTQ characters or themes in them. They act like there should be a warning, and would rather be aware of it. I think this is something that'll become a feeling of the past, hopefully soon, but for now, there seems to be a group of people that'll have a problem with any film/TV show that either makes it known there are LGBTQ characters/themes beforehand in the ads (like this movie) or don't (think Eternals), so...


I don't think it's purposely trying to be heterophobic but it almost comes off heterophobic from a couple of the jokes. Maybe they're the only ones in the movie though. Reviews do say it has crossover appeal. I just worry the ads will prevent some who might have been convinced to see it from actually doing so.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Reviews for Smile are good as expected. That's probably going to be fairly leggy. Seems like one audiences will eat up. They love jump scares (to them jump scares = scary) and at least these ones sound like good, effective ones.
Author:  Algren [ Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Hopefully it can open to $19 million for three weeks of $19m openers. But horror has been opening in the $9-11 million range recently, so I don't expect much more.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
This will have a super saturated release and more marketing plus closer to Halloween and not an artsy prestige horror flick so hopefully it can do mid to high teens
Author:  Algren [ Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
True. It does appear a simpler teen-friendly concept, reminiscent of The Ring. But I still reckon if it fails it's because it doesn't look scary. The smile is kind of ridiculous. It doesn't look creepy at all.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
The head turning upside down bit always gets a reaction when I see the trailer.
Author:  j_forest23 [ Tue Sep 27, 2022 12:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
I’ve heard it kinda has a PG-13 feel but with lots of suicide from one review I read but at least one more reaction said tue imagery is horrific and fucked up so it definitely earns its R rating. I’m excited but nervous to see it haha I’ve heard the jump scares are no joke in this
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Smile has momentum and good marketing. Yes it’s late in the lineup of horror films but should still breakout to high teens and win the weekend.
Author:  O [ Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Monday #: DC League of Super Pets $150,000 +45% 2,351 $64 $90,167,437 60

Up 45% from last Monday. :noway: Bodes well for Lyle family audiences want something to see.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 27, 2022 7:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Yep. Both Super-Pets and Gru increased over last week. Great sign for Lyle. Hopefully it surprises everyone and breaks out to over $100 million. It's just, eh, it looks bad. But parents mightn't have much choice.
Author:  Steve [ Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Algren wrote:
Yep. Both Super-Pets and Gru increased over last week. Great sign for Lyle. Hopefully it surprises everyone and breaks out to over $100 million. It's just, eh, it looks bad. But parents mightn't have much choice.

I don’t think this kind of reasoning holds up. If demand for a good kids movie is high, but the product offered is bad, I don’t think anyone’s like, “Well we have kids and we have to see a movie this weekend, so I guess we have to pay to go see that shitty looking one,” unless of course the demand from kids is real and they convince the ‘rents to take them.
Author:  Algren [ Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Oh, it is definitely a factor. Obviously a movie still has to be an above-average, competent production, but DC League of Super-Pets, for example, is not an amazing film yet its legs are great because there's nothing else. Lyle has a CGI crocodile, songs, a formulaic virtue-driven story, an above-average cast, a wide release, but ... it looks rubbish, yet that won't matter because it has all those other ingredients. It being bad would only matter if it was Sharkboy and Lavagirl level and there was competition. Parents don't actually know what to do with their kids on the weekend, and going to the cinema is a good, easy option. It breaks up the day and runs down the clock till bedtime.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Wow. I thought Smile would be a panned mess, surprised reviews are decent.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
Bros is doing awful around here. There's one theater where the 7:30 is almost full and it's in a good sized theater. But everywhere else it's pretty much 1-6 tickets sold per show. I won't actually be shocked if it does like 5 Million this weekend unless it's doing insane in big cities. Which is entirely possible. It's of course doing better there than around here.
Author:  Barrabás [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
I just bought tickets for a Saturday 7:30PM showing at the theatre in downtown Vancouver. It's close to the gay neighbourhood and what would probably be the busiest showing of the day. And yet most of the seats are available... this is in a very very liberal city in what should be the one of the busiest showings of the weekend.

I think at the end of the day most people have zero interest in watching anything gay-related. It's slightly different when it's packaged as an acclaimed, artsy must-see event ala Call Me By Your Name or Brokeback Mountain, because that draws out the cultured hipster crowd, but perhaps Billy & co overestimated the audience for a mainstream, raunchy rom com.

That and the fact that there are no stars in this. They wanted to only cast LGBT actors, but that limited them massively because Hollywood is still very homophobic so any hot young actors that do become stars are forbidden from coming out of the closet (hi Richard Madden), but still. Billy Eichner has less than 1 million Instagram followers. No one knows who he is, let's be honest. Luke McFarlane is also N/A ???.

So I'm going to make a revised last-minute prediction for $5-7M opening weekend.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: September 30-October 2 Predictions
I do think that Ticket to Paradise will save the theatrical comedy/rom com with a 20m+ opening in a few weeks. But I think the issue with Bros is not that its about a gay couple, but that the plot revolves so heavily around the fact that they're gay and nothing else seemingly. That's not inherently an interesting hook. If it had an interesting hook and they were gay on top of that, there would've been much more interested. But to most people it looked like a progressive Hollywood circle jerk
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