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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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December 21-25 Predictions
Puss in Boots 25m 3 day/ 46m 5 day I Wanna Dance With Somebody 15m Babylon 9m
Avatar The Way of Water- -40%
Babylon will bomb big;
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 1:31 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38234
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Call the flopbulance, Babylon ingested "3 hours long" and "Margot Robbie" at the same time and is about to OD
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 1:41 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32125 Location: the last free city
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Puss in Boots 30m 3 day/ 50m 5 day I Wanna Dance With Somebody 25m Babylon 10m
Avatar The Way of Water- -20% to -25% (will top 100m again)
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 1:54 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11603
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
I can potentially see Puss In Boots make a run for $250M+. Lyle/Strange combined won't even reach $90M total.
Superpets was the last family film to open with $12.5M+ OW FIVE months ago.
Puss could play as the defacto family movie people end up seeing too since Avatar may be too long for a larger family gathering or it'll be hard to secure high quality screens/seats for a while.
Dance is also going to break out but Boots could do a Meet The Fockers type jump here and almost double it's predecessor. People love Whitney but it will have Judy vibes in the sense that you know it doesn't end well though it's box office will be much higher.
Boots is the most viable option lots of people heading to the theaters will see as the fun stress free family movie. A generation raised on Shrek will only certainly help as will 11 years of no Shrek franchise films.
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:23 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
I didn't think Puss would make much. Maybe $80m total. So now it'll go and make $60 million opening weekend, lol, because all of this makes perfect sense: O wrote: I can potentially see Puss In Boots make a run for $250M+.
Puss could play as the defacto family movie people end up seeing too since Avatar may be too long for a larger family gathering or it'll be hard to secure high quality screens/seats for a while.
Boots could do a Meet The Fockers type jump here and almost double it's predecessor.
Boots is the most viable option lots of people heading to the theaters will see as the fun stress free family movie. A generation raised on Shrek will only certainly help as will 11 years of no Shrek franchise films.
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 3:43 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - $16 million ($22 million 5-day) I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $10 million Babylon - $7 million The Whale - $2-3 million (looks like it's expanding to 500-1000 theaters on Wednesday?)
Christmas Eve falling on Saturday is probably gonna make this a really underwhelming weekend. But I think most of them will increase next weekend at least, and Puss in Boots should have a nice leggy run like Sing 2 last year.
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:59 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6160 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
No reviews for the Whitney biopic...does not bode well. It seemed way too cheery from the trailers considering her life is actually a horrible tragedy (both her and her daughter ended up dying from drug overdoses). And they keep giving these biopics to uninspired directors because of unspoken representation rules. The Aretha biopic suffered the same middle-of-the-road fate. That said, Whitney was very very famous and has some very very famous songs, and this should have a solid audience. I see a $20-$25M opening over the 5 days.
Puss in Boots....absolutely no idea if this is still a relevant franchise with kids. Could go anywhere from low 20s to high 40s I feel.
Avatar I see dropping about 40-50% over the 3-day. I don't think reception is as good as the first.
Babylon will be completely DOA. Unless it's starring Leonardo DiCaprio (Aviator and Great Gatsby), audiences have proven time and time again they do not care at all about these grand old Hollywood tales of excess type films set in the 20s. And Margot Robbie is not a draw. Too beautiful to be relatable. American women like their movie stars pretty but not model-esque. Reese Witherspoon is the archetype. Same reason JLaw was huge for a while. Attractive but not intimidatingly so. Margot meanwhile is too perfect-looking. Sub $10M for the 5-day.
_________________ .
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Mon Dec 19, 2022 10:25 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38234
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Making a Whitney movie about the good years is a waste and derivative of any other music movie. I want to see the crackhead Bobby Brown stuff.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Dec 20, 2022 12:58 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11603
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
I'm getting Bohemian Rhapsody vibes from Dance in the sense that I feel the audience will embrace it even if critics don't. BR had 60% from RT but an 85% audience score. Mariah is that same era and people that love these 90s icons REALLY love them so those fanbases will be there. Reviews will certainly help expand the net but Whitney is much more relatable to today's generation compared to Elvis and BR which were in their heyday much earlier. Clive Davis being actively involved will help with those Whitney fanbases.
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Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:59 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Puss in Boots had no previews.
Thinking 9-10m today
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Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:26 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Feeling that Avatar can hit 80m in its second weekend
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Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:47 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11603
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Let's hope Puss In Boots pulls A Greatest Showman but looks like a very underwhelming holiday weekend but at least the dailies will be fun Christmas on!
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Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:20 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6160 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Whitney biopic has horrible reviews as expected. They need to stop giving any creative control to the families with these biopics. It always results in a mediocre, watered down film.
_________________ .
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Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:52 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
The actress they chose is so fucking smug, too. She isn't like Whitney at all.
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Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:23 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Devotion and Strange World slaughtered this weekend with that theatre count.
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Fri Dec 23, 2022 2:59 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11603
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
Strange World is also streaming today on Disney+ so no Christmas dailies for it to enjoy!
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Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:04 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
I heard about a week ago that Disney wouldn't report grosses anymore but it seems this week they decided to continue.
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Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:14 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67125
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Re: December 21-25 Predictions
47% for Whitney, ouch. I mean, it's not deathly low but it's lower than I expected.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Sat Dec 24, 2022 7:49 am |
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