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why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first summer
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Author:  Algren [ Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
So, it's all over. Top Gun: Maverick and Minions: The Rise of the Gru ended their daily $1 million runs on Wednesday. The latter managed the same total as Despicable 2 and 3.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OVER $1 MILLION:

101 Titanic

80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

75 Top Gun: Maverick

61 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

59 Finding Nemo
54 Back to the Future
54 Ghostbusters
54 Jurassic Park
54 Shrek 2
52 Aladdin (2019)
52 The Avengers
52 Black Panther
52 The Hangover
52 Incredibles 2
52 Shrek
52 Toy Story 4

48 The Passion of the Christ
47 Coco
47 Frozen
47 Moana
47 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
46 Batman
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 The Blind Side
45 Bridesmaids
45 Cars
45 Frozen II
45 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
45 Inside Out
45 Jurassic World
45 The Sixth Sense
45 Spider-Man
45 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
45 Toy Story 3
45 Up
45 Wonder Woman
43 Independence Day
41 Despicable Me
41 Finding Dory
41 The Secret Life of Pets
41 Spider-Man: Far from Home
41 Terminator 2: Judgment Day
40 The Dark Knight
40 Despicable Me 2
40 Despicable Me 3
40 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
40 The Jungle Book (2016)
40 Minions: The Rise of Gru
40 Spider-Man 2

39 A Star Is Born (2018)
39 Iron Man
39 Joker
38 American Sniper
38 Apollo 13
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Beauty and the Beast (2017)
38 Bruce Almighty
38 The Dark Knight Rises
38 Deadpool
38 Elvis
38 Inception
38 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
38 Knocked Up
38 Kung Fu Panda
38 The Lion King (2019)
38 Maleficent
38 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
38 The Proposal
38 Ratatouille
38 Saving Private Ryan
38 Shrek the Third
38 Spider-Man: Homecoming
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home
38 Wedding Crashers
38 Zootopia
Author:  lilmac [ Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Great list Algren. What an accomplishment for Top Gun 2.
Author:  MadGez [ Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
A mighty run. Just amazing.

Paramount are adding more theatres I believe so the rest of it's run will be interesting - Labour Day weekend in particular.
Author:  Algren [ Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
When is Labour Day? I can't remember, is it in September?

This weekend it's adding theatres due to IMAX and premium cinema locations. It's back in 3,181 after adding 421 more. :D
Author:  MadGez [ Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Yes the first weekend of September.

Hope it gets a bit of a bump this weekend then. No competition either!

It also raises the question - when was the last time a film was in the Top 10 (without falling out) from Memorial Day to Labour Day?
Author:  Algren [ Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
MadGez wrote:
Hope it gets a bit of a bump this weekend then. No competition either!


I've no idea what's a likely bump, but maybe staying over $7 million this weekend is possible? Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part. But it would be nice to see it stay above $6 million, which seems in-line with its current weekly drops, plus with the theatre increase.
Author:  O [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
As bad as it was to see TGM slip under $1M yesterday after such a long streak, a possible return to the top 3 this weekend would be a nice consolation prize.
Author:  O [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Quote:
It also raises the question - when was the last time a film was in the Top 10 (without falling out) from Memorial Day to Labour Day?


Sister Act was the closest 30 years ago but opened 4 days AFTER Memorial Day.

Also, I kid you not, the last time I could find a film managed to stay in the top 10 from Memorial Day weekend to Labor Day was the original TG. :ohmy:

It spent 25 consecutive weeks there until November. Did 2 more for 27 total. It's completely bonkers to me that TGM could have a run so similar to it's predecessor 36 years ago.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
O wrote:
Quote:
It also raises the question - when was the last time a film was in the Top 10 (without falling out) from Memorial Day to Labour Day?


Sister Act was the closest 30 years ago but opened 4 days AFTER Memorial Day.

Also, I kid you not, the last time I could find a film managed to stay in the top 10 from Memorial Day weekend to Labor Day was the original TG. :ohmy:

It spent 25 consecutive weeks there until November. Did 2 more for 27 total. It's completely bonkers to me that TGM could have a run so similar to it's predecessor 36 years ago.


That's incredible.

I guess Memorial Day weekend films do tend to burn out at a faster rate considering the rest of the summer is usually choc full of blockbusters.

And Sister Act - wow would never have thought of that film!

Maybe Sister Act 3 should go theatrical instead of streaming!! :funny:
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Algren wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Hope it gets a bit of a bump this weekend then. No competition either!


I've no idea what's a likely bump, but maybe staying over $7 million this weekend is possible? Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part. But it would be nice to see it stay above $6 million, which seems in-line with its current weekly drops, plus with the theatre increase.


Perhaps a sub 10% drop or close to even. I hope anyway.

I'd like it to clear $700m with some margin. Ideally it will be just out of reach for Wakanda and Avatar 2 to keep the yearly crown.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
The Phantom Menace in 1999 is probably the only other one that was close. Pre-Memorial Day weekend to just about the end of August before it fell out of the Top 10.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
MadGez wrote:
I'd like it to clear $700m with some margin.


Yes, I'd love it to beat Black Panther. It already has worldwide.
Author:  O [ Sun Aug 21, 2022 5:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
TGM passed $1.4B this weekend and is now at $1.403B.

Made $8.7M this weekend in 63 markets, with no drop from last weekend.

Germany +36%, UK +28%, France +6%, Netherlands +46%, Belgium +42% and Austria +19% this weekend. UK is at $98.5M and about to pass $100M.

Japan still at #2 down just 13% and at $85.8M. South Korea -22% with $64.6M total. AU -14% for $62.2M

TGM needs $97M to get to $1.5B. Domestically feel like it has a shot now for $720M if it has an Oscar run, re-release for Veteran's Day, etc. for another $37M leaving $60M to make up overseas.

Now that it is going to coast by $700M domestically feel like $1.5B is the new milestone Paramount needs to push this to! Looks like a stretch but could have a slim shot if fall disappoints.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
It's great that this isn't coming to physical media until November 1st but I wish it weren't hitting digital until then as well. Will still be leggy for a while though as there will be people like me who only want to see it on the big screen.
Author:  lilmac [ Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Don’t see why they need to go digital so soon (when it’s still doing well at the boxoffice) unless it’s to satisfy the studio’s digital partners.

This run is akin to ET and Titanic in terms of top 5 staying power. Insane.
Author:  Shack [ Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
It will be the biggest movie released in May-August ever considering Endgame was late April
Author:  Algren [ Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
By 1st November, surely Paramount won't be taking any % of the ticket sales, right? That's still the system, isn't it? If so, it would seem logical to go digital. It's already available to buy digitally, just not to rent or stream on any platform.
Author:  Samweis Gamdschie [ Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
THE success story of 2022. Avatar 2 would have to take at least 1b dom and 2b overseas to be at the same performance level. Well deserved! :shades:
Author:  O [ Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Given how bad 2020 and 2021 box office were with the pandemic, TGM so far is probably the biggest box office success of the 2020's! Spiderman may have made more but there was build up from Marvel. A sequel to a 36 year old movie becoming #5 of all time domestic feels much bigger and monumental in terms of a gamechanger for the industry while Spider-man was continuing a genre trend.

Similarly, BP2 would need to make $1B to top impact I think TGM has had on the movie industry which will be felt for years to come.
Author:  lilmac [ Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
What's crazy is that TGM will get close enough to sniff Avatar's gross through two releases (although Avatar stands to widen the lead after its 2nd re-release). TGM still has gas in the tank and could approach $$740-750M unless they send it to an early home release grave.


https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office- ... e/all-time
Author:  O [ Mon Aug 29, 2022 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Hypothetical question:

What would TGM have done if the pandemic never happened and it opened as scheduled June 2020?

I feel it definitely benefitted from the convoluted release/streaming strategies from studios that left the summer fairly barren. It served as a return to theater event for older moviegoers who shied away from theaters for 2.5 years. Also built up anticipation from not getting released for 2 years. Probably also got 2 additional years for editing, marketing plan, etc. to polish the film up. Additional pent up demand as well for blockbusters in the theater from streamer fatigue. Two years from the last MI movie so 4 year gap between Cruise movies getting released as well to build more hype with his fans.

It's on its way to perhaps $725M+ at this point. It was a perfect storm to get there but even with the huge response I feel like it wouldn't have been able to achieve this type of run if the pandemic hadn't happened. Maybe closer to $500M in a best case. Thoughts?
Author:  Algren [ Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
I was posed this question the other day by stuffp. I agree that it wouldn't have made nearly as much without the pandemic - so at least there's something we can thank China for! ;)

I'm not sure how much it would have made otherwise. It's still going to be a great, well-made experience, but I reckon probably closer to a normal blockbuster gross, something like $350 million. Pre-release, I expected it to be a typical $150-$200 million hit. I still think it might've hit those numbers if released in 2020 as intended. But it's so hard to say now knowing what we know.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Aug 29, 2022 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
I had originally predicted this to go well under Fallout. Obviously that would not have happened, but it definitely got boosted by pandemic, marvel fatigue and russia invading ukraine. Maybe like $400M?
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
Interesting question. I'm thinking it would have still done $400-$450m at least. The nostalgia factor would still play well and the fact that it's actually a good film would have helped legs.

Looking back at my own predictions, I wasn't so bullish:

In 2018

Quote:
I don't think its forgotten. It still is reasonably beloved so I could see it opening over $50m and end up around $125-$140m.


In 2019 (Post Trailer)

Quote:
It should be good for $200m. Should get a solid over 35 crowd - the like who go and see Bond, Ford v Ferrari etc. I'm in that group.

It's a pure nostalgia trip and if its actually good - all the better.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: why has Top Gun: Maverick seemingly become the first sum
On a sad note - a friend of mine who loved the original Top Gun and all things 80s/action/speed was looking forward to the sequel immensely.

Sadly - he took his own life in December 2020. Can't help wish that we got to see TGM together in 2020. :(

The last time I saw him (thanks to Covid lockdowns etc) was when a bunch of us caught up to see Ford v Ferrari in late 2019. A bittersweet memory looking back.
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