Captain Marvel was poorly received by the majority of people that watched it. The film might get a boost from the inclusion of the TV characters joining Brie Larson, also probably tying into the Secret Invasion TV series. But if the trailer isn't great, I can't imagine it won't see a significant decrease from the first film

Captain Marvel was significantly helped by many factors that this one doesn't have. I'll go sub-$250 million, but that could change depending on the trailer, how integral the film is to future phases, and who's in it. Though right now it just appears to be a straight sequel, and that feels boring.

The original opened 8 weeks before Endgame so acted as a precursor for fans anticipation. They felt they had to see it to be in the know for Endgame.

Going to be very hard to replicate that type of anticipation so will need to be very good.

This will drop from CM mainly due to not being the EG pre-cursor and for having relatively poor WOM. Kamala and Rambeau will help this a little but cant see it doing much more than $300m but the jury is still out pending how good the film looks and what it includes.

Presales have just started and one word to describe it is atrocious. This will be the comeuppance for MCU.

Good. I overbooked my a-list reservations and need to cancel one to see The Creator tonight. Glad to know I'll be able to easily get my Row D middle seat back.

I'm thinking this will open at about $80M, but late holiday legs will push it over $200M the same way they pushed Wakanda Forever over $450M last year.

This is a hair metal song released in about 1991. MCU will forever be tied in history to the 2010s, sure Iron Man came out in 08 and it had some gas in the tank in 2020s (just as hair metal has some 70s bands and a few songs sneaking into the 90s) but the meat of it is 2010s with all four main Avengers movies and unlimited success all ten years. One day teens born in the 2020s who want to be cool with 2010s retro fashion may have MCU posters and shirts.

Yeah as a big fan of the MCU between 08 and 19 (and during that time raising two kids who are into it) - none of us can muster much enthusiasm for the MCU. We'll probably still go to see the bigger more interesting properties but it's now a wait and see approach.

That said - I didn't hate Ant-man and loved GotG3 but Marvels is a bit of a CBF.

The Multiverse outside of No Way Home has been an utter snooze-fest.

Not surprised. The first one was only huge because it was marketed as a preview to Endgame. With that gone it has to live on the merits of its characters which no1 cares about.

it sold under 2/3rd of Eternals PS 1st day !!! Based on rumors I have read, this is not even that good. its a mess and so the edit removed lots of scenes from that musical planet or whatever. For Guardians Disney upped the ante and did free fan screens friday before release and let early reviews out to up the ante. Here I am not sure they will do anything and pray the MCU faithful will ultimately come.

I would join Marvels domestic under Captain Marvel OW at this point.

The problem with the TV shows is that it has a similar effect to what happened with Pixar. If you're seen as a streaming product, there's less need to rush to see it in theaters.

Marvels has that feel. I watched Miss Marvel, Secret Invasion and just struggle to feel excited about this one.

Without the Endgame rush and anticipation, Captain Marvel feels more like a $250M movie standalone let alone $420M+. There was really no where it could go but down box office wise.

Disney+ in general has been a disservice to every brand lolol made Star Wars and MCU feel extremely bloated

If it does 2/3 of Eternals OW that would be $47m opening. And this cost $270 million. A mega bomb if true.

Eternals had among the worst finishes for a MCU movie. I think only Ant Man rivals that. If this movie is received in the same ballpark its possible to go that low. but I am expecting some recovery and the faithful might still check it out OW but not buy tickets that early. So I am not predicting it to open that low. But it could very well finish below its preview movie OW. That would be a record few movies have. Alice 2 tanked big but 1st movie was 1st movie to benefit from 3D post Avatar. Wonder Woman 2 tanked but it released during a COVID era when New York and California plus many other places theaters were still closed and it was day and date streaming as well. There is also Suicide Squad but that was also day and date in streaming. But for MCU to do that without those external catalyst would be something.

Day 2 PS numbers are of course terrible. Of course buzz is all around Eras tour as Swift today announced Thursday shows and additional shows for Friday before 6PM. Now its a normal release.

Tracking up on DHD / THR:



The fact that tracking is as low as $70s is very bad. Funny that DHD is saying it's being impacted by the strike. I don't think that's the case here much for the big downfall.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235622799/

They were always going to use that excuse no matter what. If it makes $150m opening weekend, they'd say the writer's strike stopped it from making $200m.

Blaming the strike already? They can't even wait till it opens?

The real problem with the Marvels is that they aren't putting the breakout star from the first movie, Goose, front and center in the marketing. It should be called Catpain Marvel.

Quorum is a joke. I would ignore it. Even it to hit 70s it has to see significant ramp up. It still is comfortably below Eternals at this point.

I am looking forward to the studio spin this Q4 season. Between Marvels and Aquaman, lots of potential for some classic excuse making. Both made $1.1B+ with their predecessors.

Possible excuses if they land under $500M global:
-The strike impacting the ability of the cast to promote the movies.
-Competitive holiday season
-Pandemic has impacted moviegoing habits.
-The economic downturn

Any other likely excuses we'll here for studio spin for movies that couldn't possibly keep up with their predecessors?

Think we have an Alice 2 type situation on our hands.

Alice 1 rode the Avatar 3D wave opening so quickly after Avatar 1 and had a huge 3D premium.
$116,101,023/$334,191,110/$1,025,468,216

Alice 2 dropped to $26,858,726/$77,041,381/$299,820,798 six years later.

Marvels 1 a mere 7 weeks before Endgame:

$153,433,423/$426,829,839/$1,131,416,446

Alice 2 retained 23.1% of it's predecessors OW. If Marvels does that we're seeing an OW of $35.50M.

Tracking has been going up steadily in the last few weeks, 70-90 million seems to be the range now.

Actual Presales are still awful. its opening sub 60m. Also the news is social media reactions are for 11/7 and reviews will be out 11/8 1 day before release. DOA

https://twitter.com/ErikDavis/status/17 ... 7254686157

The meltdowns will be hilarious

We can only hope. Finally the age of MCU trash coming to an end.