Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- 191m

A harsh Saturday drop is guaranteed due to schools being off on Friday for Veteran's day

Plus the Fabelmans launches in limited. Will it finally break EEAAO's PTA record for the year?

Anything over 175 will be good

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $130M

I think the trailers look too sombre. It looks like the big budget movie version of a funeral.

Black Panther: WF- 190-200 million. Great reviews and great WOM will be on its side. Also MCU fans are happy it more serious and not a Joke fest.

But this is a funeral that a lot of people feel compelled to attend.

Thinking 29/170M OW for now. I agree walkups wont be as good as what people expect. lack of Chadwick is not easy to overcome. Early presales in international markets also are showing big drop from 1st movie(never mind the bad exchange rates)

The market is ready for a blockbuster hit. $200M+ OW for BP2. I can't wait. Let's hope the RT score is above average. I'm predicting 85%.

Still not buying the low numbers. I think it will cross $190m

I think around $175m sounds about right. Outdoing the first one's opening just doesn't sound right but who knows.

I think 85 will be the floor for this film based on early reaction. My guess is low 90s. Seems like this was very well done.

My thought on this one is that it could have an extended "opening" since Thanksgiving is Nov. 24th will a lot of people see it with groups and families over the long weekend? If so, some pent up demand may spread over its first 16 days.

BP1 had a 4day weekend with a holiday on Monday. Friday will be massive but could see it have a possible spread out 3 week run before a later Dec. holiday bump, we shall see.

Especially how weak thanksgiving weekend is.

Thanksgiving is stronger than any other weekend of the month, honestly it's not bad considering Strange World will probably do 40m 5 day at least, Fabelmans can probably get 20m 5 day, Devotion probably 20-25m 5 day, and Glass Onion while it won't report grosses should be the biggest Netflix premiere in theaters to date.

Thinking a 65% drop week 2 but only a 25% drop over Thanksgiving for Wakanda Forever

MCU movies are insanely frontloaded these days. That is a product of a very mature fan base and humongous release plus marketing that forces you to see it before any "spoilers" come out. Sheer number of preview shows mean there is no shortage unless you need peak hour Imax/PLF shows.

Reviews are 94% 7.8/10 avg. rating. should settle in low 90s high 80s

71 on MC is pretty tepid. No Best Picture nomination in a year with other blockbusters like Top Gun and Avatar, they can just nominate Till if they want to make sure there's a black movie.

The Academy will be in peak pandering mode after the slap, bad ratings, etc. They've brought Kimmel and I'm sure will highly showcase the year's big blockbusters. Could see TGM, BP and Avatar get shown some love. At the very least they'll nominate Rihanna to make sure she shows up to perform at the Oscars. This is an org that desperately wants to feel relevant again to mainstream audiences.

Won't hurt that the contenders look like they won't gross more than last year's crop.

Meta scores:

Black Panther 1 88 (best picture nomination)
Top Gun Maverick 78 (possible best picture nomination)
Till 78 (likely best picture nomination)
The Woman King 77 (possible best picture nomination)
Black Panther Wakanda Forever 72 (likely no best picture nomination)
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 60 (no chance for best picture nomination)
Thor Love and Thunder 57 (no chance for best picture nomination)

I voted for the opening weekend box office between Dr. Strange 2 and Thor 4 (just like my November/December entry into the contest).

Above DS:MOM
between 190m - 210m

It would be something to nominate 3 x $600m+ (possbly) mega films. If that doesnt bolster the ratings somewhat - nothing will.

I dont the reviews strong enough for wakanda or the movie to become a cultural phenomenon to get a nomination. Avatar sequel we have to wait and see but its a huge challenge to get a sequel nominated today. Top Gun has a remote chance but no mean guaranteed.

on Wakanda 1st major BO is from Korea and it looks like dropping 50% in that market.

Best song is always the ratings back up but there are some big star possibilities:

BP2 - Rihanna
TGM - Lady Gaga
Turning Red - Billy Eilish
Crawdads - Taylor Swift

Song pulls in younger people. TGM pulls in more conservative audiences and males. BP2 pulls in more left leaning. Avatar pulls in more global audiences. Ethnic communities from BP2, Everything, Everywhere, Woman King, etc.. Older from Elvis, TGM.

Add in Kimmel for left leaning middle age and millennials. They'll also probably have some random influencers somehow presenting or showing up for GenZ pandering.

There's a lot of opps for them to pull in cross demo audiences so if there ratings still stink probably hard to return to old heights.

Honestly I think Top Gun is a lock at this point. It's quite beloved. In a sea of depressing contenders people will fondly remember it being a great time at the theater. I just can't see this being ignored.

Its possible. I wont say guarantee at this point.

Anyway this week presales for Wakanda seem to have tapered off. Wednesday sales below Thor. I am thinking previews at 27-28m at this point. OW between 165-170m. Let us see how walkups go today.