Monday is great but going to be heavily inflated from Memorial Day group showings.

I think TG has a serious shot at $500M. Most of the people that saw it this weekend were older demos. There's a big group of younger moviegoers that have yet to see and and likely will end up seeing it due to the lack of product and watercooler zeitgeist impact of it. I also expect another second wind week 6 with Independence Day weekend which could help it play all summer. Only has Jurassic Park until Thor.

Monday looks like being underestimated by $4m... - $160m here we come...

$160.5m 4-day. Holy shit.

Really interested to see where this ends up. $450m+ seems inevitable. Nutty.

So... Top Gun had a record breaking weekend and Disney and Netflix both say Obi Wan and Stranger Things broke respective records.

Yeah it does now look $400m is the absolute floor so $450m+ is looking highly probable.

EmpireCity is saying 17m 15.6m tuesday. !!!! Crazy strong hold after another strong hold on Monday.
Wrong calculation from Empirecity. Still good but nothing crazy.

Umm holy shit? Lol omg

Edit: looks like EC made a mistake, actually it's 15.6m. Still good.

AS opened wide over MLK long weekend in 2015. It's 4day holiday weekend/total multiplier was 3.23.

If TG2 follows that run, it's total will be $518.88M. Given broader appeal I don't think this is far off from where I could see this getting if it continues to expand its audience younger over the next few weeks. It's demos performance is likely going to do the complete opposite of most successful films over the past 2.5 years (older audiences first then expanding younger).

500 million for TG2 is just obscene. Lmao. I took freaking Superpets over this in the draft.

Empirecity is saying 14.7m wednesday. That is the craziest wednesday drop I have seen ever. God knows where this will end at this point. 70m+ 2nd weekend incoming.

Deadline just said 14.8m wednesday but still projecting 57m for 2nd weekend. I am not sure where they are projecting for friday increase.

Wow it had the best Wednesday drop in the top 10

from empirecity



Even the worst case scenario is uber strong. I think its making 70m+ 2nd weekend. !!!

This is such a bizarre success. Not bizarre as people saw it coming and it became predictable, but bizarre because of what it is. $400 million, maybe even $500 million? What?

I can't think of any precedent for this... Jurassic World might be the closest (maybe?), in just being a massively successful sequel to an older franchise, but Top Gun 2 is just following its original. And the original was a big hit, but I never saw much of it growing up and never heard anyone talk about it. You'd see stuff like Ghostbusters, Back to the Future, E.T., Indiana Jones, etc., that would be common to see on TV any random night, and people regularly talk/talked about those, but Top Gun? I can't think of a time we ever came across it on TNT or FX big movie night or whatever, and I've never heard anyone talk about it growing up (or in recent years).

Also makes me wonder what its home video sales were.

Jurassic World is a good comparison.

Top Gun is quietly beloved. Many of my friends used to bring it up from time to time as in "Just bought the DVD, I love Top Gun, it has been so long since I watched it" way

Empirecity updated to 14.5m. Its going to be a crazy run to follow for sure.

Cruise is going to make so much $ from this. Say TG2 makes $500M domestic.

-$12.5M base salary
-10-20% of grosses (after theaters take an estimated 40%, so of Paramount's $300M cut = $30M-60M)

=$42.5M - 72.5M domestic

Studios may get 20-40% of overseas gross. Let's say $400M. Paramount's cut is $80M-160M

Cruise gets 10-20% of these grosses, so $8M-16M

Total payday from a $900M total for Cruise could be $50.5M - $88.5M though I expect he got more favorable terms given Paramount's desperation and reliance on him for MI. There's probably other backend ancillary revenue, merch, etc. he gets a cut of too.

For comparison's sake, he made $2M on the first one.

Bruce Willis made $115M for The Sixth Sense and Nicholson made $100M from the Joker so wouldn't be shocked if this one puts Cruise in the record books.

Opening week will hit $205m...

Good for him.

RDJ made a shit ton off Infinity War & Endgame as well

Any word on yesterday's top gun number?

BOG's Twitter says TG2 is now at $390M globally as of Thursday and $185M overseas. That would indicate a new domestic tally of $205M meaning Thursday would have been at $13.9M approximately (-6.5% from Wed).

TG from a 40% drop would get $76M this weekend and $281M total in its first 10.5 days. There's definitely a good shot it could hold even better.

its actually 14.46m. Amazing thing is EmpireCity over at BOT aced it like 18 hours earlier.

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/15 ... YBhLhdDf3g

Well looks like all it took to become Cruise's biggest domestic film ever was 8 days if it has a $28M Friday or 9 days if it drops more than expected.

There's no way Paramount will let this stop at 2 films off of a $500M movie. MI will have 8 films.