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June 3-5 Predictions
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89351		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 27, 2022 10:30 am ]
Post subject:  June 3-5 Predictions
There are potentially three new wide releases, Crimes of the Future, Watcher. and Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story. But I cannot tell how they will do as they could all be barely wide or not at all wide. They've also received almost no marketing.

Top Gun will probably fall 50% ish or a little less.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri May 27, 2022 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Watcher is 500+ theaters.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Tue May 31, 2022 12:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Top Gun really lucked out on getting an additional week of premium screens. I'm thinking weekend drop will be around 48-50%.
Author:  Rev [ Tue May 31, 2022 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
I'll be very surprised & impressed if it does anything under a 54% drop
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
When will we know how many theaters Watcher and Crimes of the Future are in? Hopefully Crimes is not too wide so it can expand well.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
I'm thinking 300-500 for Crimes going by how many theaters are getting it around here. They might be opening it similar to Titane but this is more high profile and will do well enough to expand more.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Weekday holds for Top Gun have been so stellar, thinking an 80m second weekend minimum, with potential to go higher. If it followed the trajectory of DSITMOM's daily first week holds, it would do 100.6m second weekend
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Rev wrote:
I'll be very surprised & impressed if it does anything under a 54% drop


Prepare to be shocked. 14.82m wednesday is bonkers. I dont think I have seen better wednesday drop in since the discount tuesday era.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Weekday holds for Top Gun have been so stellar, thinking an 80m second weekend minimum, with potential to go higher. If it followed the trajectory of DSITMOM's daily first week holds, it would do 100.6m second weekend


DS2 is not a good comp considering this is weekend after memorial. Some schools are off plus it had strong weekday holds. Its friday increase will be worse than Aladdin as well.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 4:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
There are almost no schools out, none at all where I live. But maybe you're right. Some religious schools may be out but no public schools for sure

Doctor Strange held really poorly second weekend, so thought its holds were close to worst case scenario tbh. Friday and Saturday increases were not impressive
Author:  Shack [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 7:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
With no competition I'm feeling a ridiculous 2nd weekend for Top Gun
Author:  Corpse [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 8:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Morbius is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. It could dent Top Gun's second weekend with the Morbillions it'll make.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
There are almost no schools out, none at all where I live. But maybe you're right. Some religious schools may be out but no public schools for sure


Public shools are out around me. We always got out a day or two after Memorial Day though.

Crimes is in an estimated 900 theaters this weekend. Watcher is in 764.
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
If TG drops below 44.7% (Black Panther's drop after Feb. 2018 long weekend), it will be the best $115M+ opener second weekend hold ever not supported by a long weekend in week 2.

Needs $70.07M+ to get there. Given the weekday tallies feels like it has a great chance to get there or beat it.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Corpse wrote:
Morbius is expanding to over 1,000 theaters.


I've read that those 1,000 theatres are not just in the US. It's global. So I'm not sure what the count will be domestically. But let's just say it goes into that many, how much can it realistically make? Last weekend it had a $359 per-theatre-average. So that would be the best part of $400k if using the same numbers. But, okay, let's say the meme-osphere is strong with this one and it increases to a PTA of between its 6th and 7th weekends ($365-$977), it could muster a $600 PTA? and therefore $600k+ for the weekend. I'm hoping it can make as much as possible, but I'm not sure of the expectation here from Columbia. It's at $73.3m, so I assume they want it to reach the "much lauded" milestone of $75m, because any higher would be dreamland. I suppose it's at least an interesting experiment, and I guess Columbia are channeling Dr. Morbius himself: "How far are we allowed to fix something that's broken?".
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Thinking maybe 2-3m for Crimes of the Future and sub 1m for Watcher. Too bad both of these received so little marketing.
Author:  Jonathan [ Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Algren wrote:
Corpse wrote:
Morbius is expanding to over 1,000 theaters.


I've read that those 1,000 theatres are not just in the US. It's global. So I'm not sure what the count will be domestically. But let's just say it goes into that many, how much can it realistically make? Last weekend it had a $359 per-theatre-average. So that would be the best part of $400k if using the same numbers. But, okay, let's say the meme-osphere is strong with this one and it increases to a PTA of between its 6th and 7th weekends ($365-$977), it could muster a $600 PTA? and therefore $600k+ for the weekend. I'm hoping it can make as much as possible, but I'm not sure of the expectation here from Columbia. It's at $73.3m, so I assume they want it to reach the "much lauded" milestone of $75m, because any higher would be dreamland. I suppose it's at least an interesting experiment, and I guess Columbia are channeling Dr. Morbius himself: "How far are we allowed to fix something that's broken?".


The Numbers has its US theater count at 1,037. Its PTA is probably gonna be rough though as most of the AMCs that have it are charging only $5 as a "$5 Fan Fave." :lol:
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Ah yes, The Numbers. I forgot about those guys.

I wonder if this $5 discount is like the new type of dollar run. Do dollar runs even happen anymore?
Author:  Corpse [ Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Author:  Rev [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Ridiculous :funny:
Author:  Shack [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
I watched a little bit of Morbius online and it was bad but not a The Room type. It would work better for Mystery Science Theater 3000 than midnight showings as they could give commentary on things like the cliche of the hot scientist assistant love interest.
Author:  Algren [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Morbius made just $85,000 on Friday, so unfortunately no impressive late-run revival. It did increase 922% over last Friday, but it won't make a difference to its box office total. It seems to be acting like a traditional dollar run. Nothing to see here.
Author:  O [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
There is something cathartic about seeing Morbius flopping and falling off a cliff again. :funny:
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 3-5 Predictions
Re-expansions of current movies basically never work. I don't know why they bothered with Morbius.
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