Disney couldn't care less about such headlines. They are today's big issue, tomorrow's toilet tissue. The difference between $405m and $425m is also extremely little for Disney by that time because, I believe, the cinemas will be taking the lion's share. Studios do everything for their own gain. They would forego the extra $5-6m revenue from theatrical (which is tuppence, and would take weeks to accrue) if it means they can get exclusive gains in the form of new subscribers or just satisfied existing ones (i.e. renewals).

I'd think Obi Wan and Ms Marvel would keep people subscribed.

Well now we know what streaming's impact has likely been on the Pixar brand. Even if LY was going to disappoint, Pixar has had their brand devalued theatrically and now has films seen as non-events.

Interestingly on a side note, kids films in space have a notoriously bad track record:

Lightyear
Zathura
Treasure Planet
Planet 51
Titan AE
Astro Kid
Escape From Planet Earth
Jetsons Movie
Iron Giant
Muppets In Space
Cat From Outerspace
Mars Needs Moms

Wall-E, Monsters vs Aliens, and Space Jam 1 are the exceptions!

Even Wall-E was a disappointment relative to pre-release expectations.

Lightyear is going to end up on D+ anyways so for people used to watching them on there they may as well wait

This also calls into question how Thor 4 might do. Dr. Strange 2 is hitting Disney+ after, what, 46 days? And it was still making decent money when that was announced a couple weeks back.

Will audiences expect Thor 4 to have a similar theatrical window and just wait? The core fanbase will go opening weekend, of course, but if more casual moviegoers just wait for Disney+, these Marvel films could end up being super-frontloaded and fall short of their potential. Thor would miss taking full advantage of the final couple weeks of summer vacation and Labor Day weekend, for example, if given a ~45 day window.