No Way Home - 115-120m


Mother of god

Hi everyone - Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays!

So cool to see that box office is back with a MF vengeance!

Figured it would hit 100m OD. More front loaded than TFA and Endgame didn’t make sense.

WOAH!

Pretty cool stat if its OD beats the original's OW.

Amazing number! Think we have to take into consideration shutdown impact though for week 2.

Denmark is shutting them down. UK may quickly. Canada could be close to restrictions. Europe is about 1 week away from North America so the Christmas weekend numbers could be messy but hopefully not.

Will Spidy get to $500M+ off of a $225M weekend? I hope so. Maybe people will rush more this weekend seeing that they may not be able to see it where they are in week 2 or 3?

Hope they stay open though, great to see numbers like these and feels like 2019.

My worry is Spidey will ensure Omicron has spread even faster. all plexes were packed to teeth from yesterday. We will know the impact in 10-14 days.

It’s easily the most anticipated film since Endgame and we all knew it. It would all depend on whether her crowds would be going to see it in droves or not. How far over 200m can it go?

I don't see how this isn't going to impact box office within days. At least we will see a glimpse of box office demand. Toronto is putting in restrictions as of this Sunday. If NYC gets there, box office could have a huge hit of at least 15%-25%+ by mid week though I'm completely guessing. People's anxiousness of going to a theater could make it worse.

Yup. That, plus the holidays and everyone gathering is going to be a perfect storm for a really bad January. Hope that it really is less severe but with the sheer number of cases the hospitals will be overpacked. Glad I got my booster a couple of weeks ago!


But back to the good news! Amazing opening for Spider-Man. I do think that the lack of big event movies this year (and last) probably helped this skyrocket, but I’m sure the reviews and connections to older Spider-Mans helped a lot too. I think it likely will have bad legs just because of the virus. The people that were willing to come out are coming out opening weekend. Even Shang Chi just missed a 3.0 multiplier with little competition in September.

Agreed, back to good news!

Could Spiderman have beaten Avengers End Game in normal times? If it does $250M + this weekend could it have been the first $400M OW? What is the capacity for OW really now?

It definitely would’ve gotten close if not beaten Endgame record opening

Eh I don't think it would've beat Endgame. Sure seems like $275m+ would've happen, I guess let's see how much this does. If it does over $230m then I think covid really didn't do **** for this opening as most audiences are apathetic now.

The contrast between Spidy's performance ($225M+) and $10M the weekend before from the most iconic film director of the last 50 years is striking.

Are we going to need Marvel to start making musicals to make them popular again?

It's just not sustainable for the industry as a whole. We need to pray adult films can recover in the long-term.

Amazing numbers but incoming restrictions are a bummer. Fuck Covid now and forever.

Yeah that COVID restrictions are a bummer when BO finally lit up. Hopefully we don't get to that state and people stay safe.

MOG opening day for NWH. It should cross $200m with ease and hopefully 1B mark WW.

I may be in the minority but if there is no covid, I bet this does considerably less. This is the first major blockbuster in 2 years. That absolutely is helping it.

... now that makes no sense

I agree with Excel. It probably won't do as big with much healthier box office and audience not being starved for blockbusters. I don't think it would miss $200m though but definitely not as big as $230m+ that it's looking to do.

We have seen that a prolonged absence of megablockbusters can lead to true explosion throughout history. This would have always been huge but I would guess the epic delay is adding $30-40m to this opening.

Not sure if I'm buying this argument.

-More people across older demographics not going to the theater, especially 40+. Smaller pop size.
-Theater capacity limits impacting showings from regular times.
-Spidy 3 adjusting to $201M+ already with Spidy 1 at $181M+. These were from the 2000s before MCU. Feel like these movies are even more OW dependent and rush out now with social media.

I'm not doubting there was a rush out from a lack of product which is completely true and has happened throughout movie history. However, I don't think we can say this is higher than it would do in normal times outside of a pandemic?

By that reasoning would that mean Avengers End Game would have done $400M+ opening this weekend during a pandemic in similar circumstances? I don't think so. The overall market could expand further to capture a larger population size, much of which isn't showing up OW or at all the last two years.

A rush out to the theater starved for product during a pandemic <<<<< reaching everyone for an event (MCU) film outside a pandemic that is already known for rush outs

You are comparing a normal condition for a movie that maxed out it's potential to pandemic times. Reverse is true but not the way you are comparing it. Endgame probably wouldn't have built that big of hype in pandemic times.

Also $230-$250m Vs $350m is still a huge gap. We are talking about $20m-$30m bump for Spiderman.

Pretty much. We'll never know for sure but if there was no pandemic I highly doubt this would've opened to less than it is doing now.

RTH is saying $120m... truly insane.

So 70m true Friday. That's insane. Films are struggling to get that much over a full weekend.

MOG!!!