Not an exact science but my estimate is ticket prices may be 9.5% higher from when Dune 1 came out. That was with streaming release as well as the pandemic. Just matching the last movie would already give it about $44.9M. With many people doing IMAX, likely will be much higher ticket prices too so just matching the last movie probably gives $50M.

But the floor is likely higher from all the people who watched at home and not in theaters. So likely closer to $65M+ perhaps?

Then add in no other major movies and pent up demand of people who want to watch something. So an Oppenheimer OW seems very possible!

Hard to believe it's already been over 2 years since Dune 1 came out. Seems like last year.

I think it gets close to $100m OW.

When was the last time a star had two $200M+ movies in the headlining role in < 3 months?

Wonka came out Dec. 15, 2023. Dune will come out March 1st, 2024 (77 days later).

Rachel McAdams Mean Girls and Notebook which may be the closest. Mean Girls + The Notebook were huge.

Mean Girls - $154.3M adjusted and The Notebook - $146.0M may be the closest in recent memory for $150M ish films.

Sure it's been done in the 70s-90s adjusted but going to be a big box office achievement.

If we're lowering the bar to the 150ish range, Tom Holland in Uncharted after No Way Home.

Good one as well. Mostly lowered the bar since I couldn't think of any $200M+ movies. I'm also not counting MCU (Captain Marvel/End Game). One of the top 3 stars of the movie mostly.

Wonka doing well only helps Dune as Timothee's star is now bigger.

Stallone had Rocky 4 and Rambo 2 within 6 months. Eddie Murphy had Mulan and Dr. Dolittle a week apart. Mel Gibson had the patriot and chicken run win the same month and what women want less than 6 months later.

It’s more a release thing/ studio thing. Ben stiller, Jim Carrey. Bradley Cooper ( infinity war, star is born, the mule) Ian mckellen had Davinci code and X3 3 weeks apart.

I think an opening in the 70s is realistic. Anything above 80m would be fantastic.

They are playing the first in Imax starting the 9th!

They are lifting the social media embargo on Feb. 15th which is ridiculously early and review embargo Feb. 21st. That reflects a lot of studio confidence and expected rave reviews. Nolan has called it this generation's Empire Strikes Back.

I'm starting to feel this could do $100M+ / $300M+ now.

How is it the empire strikes back when it’s not a middle chapter with a cliffhanger?

Ask Nolan!

Dennis wants to adapt Dune Messiah next so it may end up being the middle chapter of a film trilogy. After Messiah is when the books start to get weird and would probably suit an HBO miniseries better. Not sure audiences are ready for a child superhero covered in slugs (that's what the book after Messiah has lol).

I always assumed this was part 2 of a trilogy

Yeah I know there's a sequel, but Dune is a complete story and even if there's a "third part of the story" it's not directly comparable to a second film that leaves off at a cliffhanger.

The book doesn't have a cliffhanger but I could easily see the movie doing so with like a vision of what happens in Dune Messiah or something like that.

Maybe

First tracking #'s at $65M+ OW.

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office ... 235819080/

I am confident its going lot higher. Let us confirm if the reviews are rave in less than 2 weeks. Then its going to realize its potential for sure. Definitely the 1st blockbuster of the year and probably among the biggest movies as well. Even overseas presales at Korea look uber strong(way stronger than Oppenheimer which start strong as well). Europe is looking to increase big from last movie which was impacted by COVID for sure.

If Dune 2 also pulls best picture (definitely will be nominated since last one had 10 noms and 6 wins), will be the earliest winner since Silence of the Lambs in 1992 (32 years ago)! Feels like a strong contender for director as well given the scale of this.

Not counting Nomadland which opened wide Feb. 2021 but was supposed to come out Dec. 2020 but delayed due to Covid.

Feel like Joker, Gladiator 2, Furiosa, Wicked will also be there is the quality is there so that's 5 right now.