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| Friday Estimates https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88658 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Friday Estimates |
1 N Dune Warner Bros. $17,500,000 4,125 $4,242 $17,500,000 1 2 (2) Halloween Kills Universal $4,500,000 +159% -80% 3,727 $1,207 $63,104,845 8 3 (1) No Time to Die United Artists $3,579,515 +86% -50% 3,807 $940 $111,734,600 15 4 (3) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $2,450,000 +149% -47% 3,513 $697 $175,179,631 22 5 N Ron’s Gone Wrong 20th Century… $2,300,000 3,560 $646 $2,300,000 1 6 (4) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $1,132,663 +166% -40% 2,907 $390 $45,111,640 22 7 (5) The Last Duel 20th Century… $627,000 +93% -67% 3,065 $205 $7,094,968 8 8 N The French Dispatch Searchlight … $555,000 52 $10,673 $555,000 1 9 (6) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $547,000 +116% -40% 1,600 $342 $219,520,832 50 https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
I think it's the opening day is great tbh. I don't really see it doing muxh better pre-pandemic and with no Max. The question is if general audiences show up for the rest of the weekend. If it gets to 40m, 2.5 multiplier to 100m may be a struggle but possible if drop next weekend isn't disasterous. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Legs will not be good as the movie is boring as hell. What were they thinking? Shows the power of REAL IP and brand recognition as Dune is a series nobody has ever heard of outside of true scifi fans. WB put so many movie stars into this, gave it an epic budget, epic marketing campaign. This was as manufactured of a blockbuster as we get nowadays and it manages $12.4m on its opening Friday. Yes, in normal times and w/o HOB Max, maybe that goes up to $16-17m but still. Dune would have been a ~$60m opening during normal times which, while not awful, is not even close to enough to justify the crazy costs of production and release. This is almost certainly more of an investment in Villanueve longterm. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Very good all things considered. Actually, even in the Before Times this would have been seen as decent. I don't think it could have opened much higher even if it had a Nolan or Tarantino (imagine? lol) as the director. The marketing department deserves a raise for getting so many casual fans into the theater. I don't think WOM will be as excel predicts, the movie is pretty good if you can handle the slow pacing, but the late ads were misleading for sure. I hope everyone knew they weren't about to watch a Jason Mamoa romp across the desert. Next week it'll fall huge no matter what, but if it has good buzz on the internet and cleans up the tech awards at the oscars then there will be enough hype for the more action-heavy Part 2. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Part 2 is basically going to be a war movie so it will be very action heavy with big twists and turns, lots of drama. All the juicy stuff is in Part 2. And the next book, since I believe Villenueve wants to do a trilogy, is much shorter and faster paced with some very cool and interesting new creatures/characters that expand the universe, that one will be easier to adapt and probably more audience friendly. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
You guys are being too forgiving. For a $150m+ production budget that is a bad opening no way to turn it around. Movies with streaming have done way better than this and it's going to be a stretch to reach $40m with that Friday (it will reach that mark but not much higher). Having said that it's OS numbers are good so part 2 will happen for sure, so stop being a fan and call it out as it is. The expectations were high before it's opening and it ended up at lower end of prediction ranges. It's not disastrous opening but definitely not a great opening "all things considered". |
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| Author: | Mau [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Thats.... not good |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Jack Sparrow wrote: You guys are being too forgiving. For a $150m+ production budget that is a bad opening no way to turn it around. Movies with streaming have done way better than this and it's going to be a stretch to reach $40m with that Friday (it will reach that mark but not much higher). Having said that it's OS numbers are good so part 2 will happen for sure, so stop being a fan and call it out as it is. The expectations were high before it's opening and it ended up at lower end of prediction ranges. It's not disastrous opening but definitely not a great opening "all things considered". I’d be less surprised if it falls under 38 million then if it hits 40. The runtime mixed with the crazy weather hitting 50+ million people, the pre sales mulltiplier, and the way streaming in general has been effecting OW multipliers are pretty big factors not in its favor. I agree “all things considered” is usually used by people that are only choosing to consider certain things. It’s like the curb your enthusiasm “having said that” episode. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Black Widow and Halloween Kills (probably) are the only streamers to open higher. One had a $30 fee and the other is on a platform that everybody hates. This not a flop like Suicide Squad, Malignant, In The Heights, etc.. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
No one said it's a flop but that does not mean it's a great opening that many here are claiming with "all things considered". |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Thinking 14m saturday. Its up 10% at AMC and ratio at AMC tend to go down on a saturday. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
I think it's at least good, if not great. Certainly not superb or anything, but there is a decent handicap here. We'll never know, but I think in normal times the ceiling would have been... $50/60 million? Would have been really surprised if it opened higher than that range. So if it can do ~$40 million while on HBO Max, that's pretty good at the very least to me. How many here watched it on HBO Max instead of in theaters? Nothing wrong with that (I did, my local theater decided to hold "Halloween 12" over...), getting your money's worth from paying for the service after all, but it's of course going to chip away at the potential box office. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
It released here in September so I watched it in theaters first but I appreciated it more when I rewatched it at home. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
I love whoever wrote Dune’s Wikipedia reaction “Studio heads are elated at a 300 million WW, despite the the break even point being far north of there” |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
I wonder how much they made in streaming. Maybe once that considered $300m WW will be enough to break even. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
I don't think you need to pay for it on HBO Max? It is free with the service. It is just a way of adding subs. |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Excel wrote: I don't think you need to pay for it on HBO Max? It is free with the service. It is just a way of adding subs. Yeah, but if they look at the differential in the increase in subscribers compared to their average month/week and multiply that by the price and the number of months/weeks the average subscriber stays on the platform, they can get a vague idea of how much money Dune will have provided in terms of streaming revenue. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Unlike the films of Disney, Universal etc. the problem with WBs strategy is the gave the subscription away for free. They also had to pay backend deals (225 million to legendary pictures) from an article that deadline posted a while back they need 50 million paid subscribers to make any type of profit, and I think they are only at 12.8 so far. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
Wow! That was a big gamble, WB is really bleeding money in that case. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Estimates |
With 165m budget plus advertising, break even is probably around 450-500m. |
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