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October 22-24 predictions
https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88643		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:15 pm ]
Post subject:  October 22-24 predictions
Dune - 37
Ron's Gone Wrong - flop

The presale discussion on BOT is encouraging for Dune but I think it'll have a good Thursday and Friday and then fall due to rush/streaming

I saw Amazon is streaming Hotel Transylvania in January...? What the fuck? Lol this would've been the perfect weekend to release it. Yeesh.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I'm gonna stick with flop for Dune. Pre sales are a fanboy thing.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune - $30m
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
The cast is increasing interest in younger audiences, Chalamet and Zendaya are going to get the Tumblr crowd out.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune - 50m. Its PS is well ahead of Bond and even if it craters like Bond, it will have good OW. There is a must watch on big screen element to this apart from fanboys and attraction to young audience(due to Chalamet/Zendaya). Trailer at Dolby looked fantastic.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser, zwackerm will die from heartache :P
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Keyser, zwackerm will die from heartache :P


I am expecting PS to crater final 2 days and walkups wont be great. Still its going to have a good OW. Its not bombing like Suicide Squad.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Oct 16, 2021 3:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
As you mentioned earlier it's PS heavy movie so better numbers around that didn't inspire confidence. I'll up me predictions to $40m based on Keyser's intel.
Author:  MadGez [ Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune - 38m
Ron's Gone Wrong - 12m
Author:  Kanroji Mitsuri [ Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Ok 35M and 40M at best
Author:  Barrabás [ Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune: $36M

Without HBO Max maybe high 40s
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I voted over but really have no idea. If Halloween can get $50M while on Peacock then there is hope for a high opening here. Yet, I assume many more people already have HBO Max and will therefore just watch it there on their first conveinance. I really wanna see Dune in theaters, but won't have a chance until Sunday at the earliest. Can I, and many others in the same situation wait or will we just take the simple way out?

I'll predict $16M for Thursday and Friday, but where it goes from there is a mystery.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Oct 17, 2021 3:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I still think Blade runner numbers would be great for this
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I wonder what will be number 1 on the 29-31? Dune will see a big drop but will it be enough that Last Night in Soho can have a week at number one? Will Halloween Kills have an amazing hold and take back number one? Will Antlers surprise?
Author:  Thegun [ Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I don't know, Last Night in Soho despite Wright looks like it might not even open to 5 million. I think it's still too early for a non mainstream film to break out, and Halloween weekend is typically a dead zone, especially with it falling on the weekend. Bond, Halloween, and Dune will probably all be very close to each other that weekend, unless Dune massively over performs.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Probably won't have anything over $20m that weekend. Don't see Last Night in Soho doing over $10m tbh. If Dune manages to open around $40m then a big drop would probably have it end up being less than $15m, and that may be enough for #1? I think Halloween is gonna plummet this weekend and it won't have enough to be over $15m that weekend but we'll see.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune's PS has dropped precipitously. If it does not amp up, we will have another disappointing OW. To me after its start, anything below 40m would be a disappointment. But that wont be a shocker at this point.
Author:  O [ Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune looks good on paper but older audiences are not showing up to the theater in droves. Zendaya and Timothy also haven't anchored a tentpole on their own. Doesn't guarantee a must see factor. The simultaneous release also has shown WB with a lineup of disappointments.

The French Dispatch is also opening the same weekend! Any Timothy fans rushing out will split anyhow where I could see some of his fans see that first before Dune.

Anything over $30M is a win IMO for Dune. I think following 3 $50M+ OW's just has risen expectations too high already.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
O wrote:
The French Dispatch is also opening the same weekend! Any Timothy fans rushing out will split anyhow where I could see some of his fans see that first before Dune.


That opens in like 50 theaters. Dune will be more widely available to fans.
Author:  bl1222 [ Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Because of HBOMax, I'm sorry to sound like a hater but Dune will open only in the mid to high 30s based on low pre-sales. My final prediction right now is $38M. I hope for more for it since it looks awesome.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
$38m is really high lol. I see it doing less than $30m if things go right/wrong :P
Author:  bl1222 [ Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
$38m is really high lol. I see it doing less than $30m if things go right/wrong :P


Even before COVID, it probably would have grossed around $80M domestically. No offense, but BR2049 had a lot more going for it. Would you agree with me on that?
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Agreed on $80m prediction, I think the appeal for this franchise is very niche. BR2049 had Ford reprising his role and cult following with fans asking for a sequel. Dune has known but unproven stars with only visuals to go around which does not always guarantee a big total. The action in trailers was never exciting as well (because its a very small part of the movie).
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
It feels like there is so much interest in this to me lol. If this opens to less than 35m, WB really f'ed this up
Author:  Shack [ Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
If this does well I will be happy to see a launching pad for Chalamet since there is a need for a new prettyboy A lister type of guy
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