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| Weekend Estimates https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88615 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Weekend Estimates |
...trickling in... I expected worse... |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 10:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
$90.100.000 |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
$37.29m Friday $31.60m Saturday (-15 %) $21.21m Sunday (-33 %) |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Shang Chi, felt like a huge buzz smash at 75 mil Venom 90 LMAO |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Insane opening. Like... what? Even $18m for Addams Family seems pretty good. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
A very good weekend for openers. This spot is October is becoming HUGE in recent years and just keeps growing. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
The fact that this got so close to Joker is unbelievable. 64% of Venom’s earnings also came from Imax and other premium large format venues according to THR!  Adams Family 2 is SUPER impressive. This probably could have opened to $30-40M in regular times. Saints of Newark did $5M.  This year is starting to feel a lot like the 2001 box office bonanza. We started the year with Hannibal doing $58M for the 3rd biggest OW of all time. By the end it super accelerated to $90M with HP and then to Spiderman in May 2002. With the pandemic re-openings, we have seen a trickle up in opening weekends as audiences get more comfortable going back to theaters. It would not shock me for us to see a similar pattern of $100 M, $120M, $150M etc. with larger OW benchmarks being toppled. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Sony could have had like 40-50 for Hotel Transylvania if they released it theatrically (and exclusively so) and it didn't open with Addams Family 2. The showing for the latter is impressive with it being on demand. Anyway what a time to be alive. Let's stop with the day and date releases already. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
This is proving to be such amazing time to be a BO follower. So many trends are re-emerging out the big experiment that has been these last 2 years. After the VERY highs of 2019 we went back to all-time low in 2020 and now it looks like 2021 is going to gather steam into 2022. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Did Shang-Chi not come out in China? Bizarre. Even if it made $200M+ there it still wouldn’t be anywhere near Hi Mom. You’ve got this year locked up China, let Marvel back in! |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Shang-Chi didn't release in China because of some remarks by Simu sometime back it seems. Very weird that the government decides to ban a movie on some individual remarks on social media platforms that are not readily available in the market to begin with. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
EPIC opening and good to see such a high opening is possible. I think Black Widow and Shang Chi alluded to this but it's good to see anyway. Roll on Bond! I can see $75m+ happening but will be interesting to see it and Venom coexist atop the BO. Also - heads should roll at WB though because Dune is going to take a major hit |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
No time To DIe appeals to an older demo I think than Venom, but Venom can take a 60% drop with that opening anyway. |
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| Author: | O [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I do feel a tad bad for WB. Though they made a knee jerk reaction to stabilize their business (so they thought) by committing to the hybrid model early on, only to see underwhelming or heavily frontloaded box office runs, WB movies paved the way really for the box office re-opening with Universal a close second and actually released tentpole movies sooner than all other studios. Sept. 2020 - Tenet Dec. 2020 - WW 2 Jan. 2021 - The Little Things Feb. 2021 - Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom and Jerry Mar. 2021 - Godzilla vs Kong Apr. 2021 - Mortal Kombat May 2021 - Those Who Wish Me Dead (flopped but still a A-list film that opened wide) Jun. 2021 - Conjuring, In The Heights Jul. 2021 - Space Jam Aug. 2021 - SS2 Sept. 2021 - Malignant, Cry Macho Oct. 2021 - Many Saints of Newark Coming up: Dune, King Richard and Matrix 4 By the time Cruella and AQP2 opened to large numbers, WB essentially paved the way by sacrificing their tentpole movies to get audiences back to theaters while studios like Disney were focusing mostly on movie re-releases until Raya opened in March. WB should have only committed to a 6 month hybrid model. It started to dramatically hurt them mid summer when audiences get much more comfortable going back to theaters. They seemed to take the majority of the studio risk and now they aren't reaping the rewards. They also lost Nolan and probably upset a whole bunch of other creatives along the way with their experiment. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
It's incredible how WB has mismanaged not just their properties but now just their films altogether. Of course this was probably all AT&T but wow. GvK and Mortal Kombat were the two films that pushed theaters forward at reopening and that should've been it. They should've done it by a month to month basis as opposed to going for shock and awe for the full year. Sure TSS looks like it was destined to underperform like BoP but yeesh. Dune and Matrix will be lucky to gross over $90m. Once The Batman makes big bucks there will be no going back when at the beginning of reopening it looked like this model could work. |
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| Author: | O [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Disney at least saw the writing on the wall and was smart to settle with ScarJo after Shang Chi's OW. If they kept it going Venom's OW followed by other big openers over Black Widow's would have only made things worse. If Dune does somehow spectacularly flop ($165M budget), would be interesting to see if WB shifts Matrix 4 2 weeks into January 2022 due to "reshoots" or "late edits" to get out of it's 2021 commitment. 
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Matrix really should move to either January or February. During holidays movies can coexist but idk how Matrix is gonna get those IMAX screens against Spider-Man like they're advertising. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
O wrote: Disney at least saw the writing on the wall and was smart to settle with ScarJo after Shang Chi's OW. If they kept it going Venom's OW followed by other big openers over Black Widow's would have only made things worse. If Dune does somehow spectacularly flop ($165M budget), would be interesting to see if WB shifts Matrix 4 2 weeks into January 2022 due to "reshoots" or "late edits" to get out of it's 2021 commitment. I think your analysis is spot-on especially about this really being AT&T. They have no idea how to deal with the movie business, they're in a phone company mentality where you can screw around with customers and they will mostly oblige due to lack of choice. They don't understand that Hwood is about relationships and like you said they've permanently damaged valuable relationships. Nolan, one of the few directors who is a draw by himself, could have five or more big original films left in him that would've gone to WB but now will go to another studio. I do think that Dune's strong international numbers mean 'spectacular flop' is out of the question already, but putting it on HBO Max simultaneously will hurt it's domestic performance big time, I will be surprised at over high 20s OW and $75M total tbh. I do think Matrix is guaranteed a solid theatrical audience, but again they will be losing out on money big time with the dual release. Without HBO Max I could see $100m+ OW for it. With HBO Max half of that. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Actual is 90.0m, close enough it could've been fudged |
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| Author: | Shack [ Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Monday - 5.7 |
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| Author: | O [ Tue Oct 05, 2021 11:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Something I completely forgot that makes Venom 2's OW even more impressive, the following Monday was Columbus Day and Thanksgiving in Canada. So Venom 1's Sunday was inflated by the long weekend with a $9.7M Monday tally. Venom 2 dropped -33.7% on Sunday compared to Venom 1 which dropped 18.9% thanks to the holiday. So it probably would have done closer to $4M less for a $76M tally in 2018 if it had a similar hold to Venom 2. $90M is super impressive to achieve without the inflated Sunday. Similarly, Joker had an inflated Sunday, on its way to a $9.7M Monday. So it seems like Venom 2 realistically probably would have come within $2-2.5M of Joker if it had a holiday Monday. Bond has that inflated Sunday this weekend so it has room to add 5-10% on its weekend tally because of that. It has a lot more in its favor with a better release date than Venom 2 did. |
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