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 September 24-26 Predictions 

Will Dear Evan Hansen Open Under $10M?
Poll ended at Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:43 am
Yes ($9,999,999 or less) 57%  57%  [ 4 ]
No ($10,000,000 or more) 43%  43%  [ 3 ]
Total votes : 7

 September 24-26 Predictions 
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Veteran

Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm
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Post September 24-26 Predictions
Dear Evan Hansen - $8M OW

Shang-Chi - 38% drop


Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:43 am
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11433
Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
Evan Hansen will either do well or very horribly but people keep to seem talking about it and it's getting a lot of press though not all good.

Going with $14 M mostly because there isn't much else and there's a chance only 1 other movie will make $5M next week.


Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:19 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
Evan Hansen will flop as well. We are going back to regular September performances though with 50-65% of usual crowd and mid-to-small scale movies were struggling before the pandemic.


Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:32 pm
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Devil's Advocate
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Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
This month is very bad for mid scale movies still getting released in theatres going forward.

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Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:02 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
I used to think Evan would do low teens but it's probably not even going to make it to double digits.

Tammy Faye expands to 1,000+ theaters. I wonder why The Card Counter didn't really expand. It did decently opening weekend but didn't hold up well in its second weekend. Was hoping it would expand here.


Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:31 am
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Sbil

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
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Location: Arlington, VA
Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
I think it'll perform similarly to Love, Simon.

There is a significant fanbase for the musical that shouldn't be underestimated, but the overall mixed reviews (with some vicious ones) probably won't persuade that many others. Still think it'll do better than In the Heights.


Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:27 pm
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Extraordinary
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
I feel like there's so much negative publicity around this. Even my friend who's a fan of the show doesn't want to see it and tbh I'm not really keen to see it even though I probably will end up going. The trailer and premise just sounds super unappealing.

I would say highest it could go is 15. I'm gonna go with 11 rn.


Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:37 pm
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
It looks so boring, literally just a musical version of a suicide PSA.

You know you've messed up if I don't want to see a musical lol.


Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:55 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
It sucks because I adore The Perks of Being a Wallflower and would think Stephen Chbosky could do a great job with the material but it doesn't look very good. Platt is the biggest issue for me. I don't care if he was in the show he looks too distractingly old to be playing a high schooler. They should have gotten someone better suited. The rest of the cast is really good though. I might still go see it for them.


Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:06 am
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
I didn't realize Rachel McAdams 25 or 26 when Mean Girls came out where she played a teenager.

That had a camp factor though which played well. The "authenticity" DEH is trying to present makes it hard to not see a 27 year old as a 27 year old.


Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:24 pm
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Devil's Advocate
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
O wrote:
I didn't realize Rachel McAdams 25 or 26 when Mean Girls came out where she played a teenager.


I definitely remember the factoid that she was 27 when Mean Girls came out, if you go by the official birthdate now of Nov 1978 it would be 25... I think she lost 2 years off her birthdate by magic at some point along the way.

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Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:25 pm
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
I wonder how presales are. Even though it looks bad, the play has run at least 2x as long as In the Heights did.


Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:46 am
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Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
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Post Re: September 24-26 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
I wonder how presales are. Even though it looks bad, the play has run at least 2x as long as In the Heights did.


Nonexistent here. Completely different genre/demo, but sales in my region are Malignant bad.

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Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:14 pm
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