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| Weekend Estimates https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88421 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Weekend Estimates |
| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
WB really wanted this to beat GvsK ($31,625,971)... |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
A Quiet Place 2 had the best drop in the top 10 despite being available to purchase on digital and streaming on P+. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
1 N Space Jam: A New Legacy Warner Bros. $31,650,000 3,965 $7,982 $31,650,000 1 2 (1) Black Widow Walt Disney $25,612,000 -68% 4,275 +115 $5,991 $131,373,671 2 3 N Escape Room: Tourname… Sony Pict… $8,800,000 2,815 $3,126 $8,800,000 1 4 (2) F9: The Fast Saga Universal $7,620,000 -33% 3,368 -281 $2,262 $154,838,955 4 5 (3) The Boss Baby: Family… Universal $4,720,000 -47% 3,449 -239 $1,369 $44,641,675 3 6 (4) The Forever Purge Universal $4,160,000 -42% 2,735 -323 $1,521 $35,910,710 3 7 (5) A Quiet Place: Part II Paramount… $2,300,000 -27% 1,995 -364 $1,153 $155,027,870 8 8 N Roadrunner: A Film Ab… Focus Fea… $1,900,000 927 $2,050 $1,900,000 1 9 (6) Cruella Walt Disney $1,112,000 -53% 1,175 -700 $946 $83,429,517 8 10 N Pig Neon $945,000 552 $1,712 $945,000 1 https://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 11:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Believe this is the first weekend to see back to back $30m+ OW's since Birds of Prey/Sonic in Feb 2020! Also the first weekend to have two films gross $25m+ in the same weekend since SW/Jumanji Jan. 3-5, 2020. F9's hold is impressive. My guess is it was helped greatly by Ontario (especially Toronto), where it wasn't available on demand and where theaters re-opened on Friday for the first time in almost a year. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Black Widow estimate is $26.2m now. Needs a 3.6 multiplier from this weekend to hit $200m. If it gets close Disney will probably push to $200m. Forever Purge near 3x multiplier already. Their gonna make more of these for sure. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I do wonder if black widow drop is due to reception or market conditions. Only big opener so far not to crater weekend 2 is Quiet Place 2. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Streaming is definitely playing a factor in week 2, especially when looking at AQP2. It seems like the new trend will be that anyone who rents or sees in theaters weekend 1, people that were on the fence end up renting. F9 wasn't streamed but it was available online and internationally for almost a month before hitting domestic theaters (so it doesn't really help the theory, however both Purge and Boss Baby held decently despite following the holiday and Black Widow) I think we'll get a better idea with Snake Eyes and Old weekend 2. Both are not getting immediate home releases so despite their genres, their weekend 2 holds might be considered surprising to some. And if Space Jam continues the 65%+ trend we'll have more data moving forward. Right now I'm seeing this trend: Weekend 1- High Demand for Streaming but Theaters are still the primary outlet = Horrible OD to OW multipliers Weekend 2- Streaming gets a push because people that didn't want to go to the theaters waited for WOM and decided to rent = very sharp 2nd weekend drops Weekend 3 on- The demand for streaming has subsided and regular WOM and casual theater goers are going when the seating is much more open = 3.5-5 multiplier from weekend 2. I think streaming is having a much larger impact on days 3-10 then on any other part of the release. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 2:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
It'll also help if Disney releases weekend 2 streaming numbers. Last week they say it was about 70-75% theaters/ 25-30% streaming. |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Space Jam's demo breakdown is promising. Almost 51/49 adults/kids, 54/46 male/female, and very diverse crowds. Seems it hit every quadrant well. Impressive considering it's Free on HBO Max. Among ticket buyers, 61 percent were under 25, including 49 percent under 17. The film skewed male overall (54 percent). Caucasians made up 35 percent, followed by Blacks (31 percent), Latinos (27 percent), Asians (4 percent and Native Americans/Other (3 percent). Space Jam over indexed in the East and South, while the West led the charge in pure dollars Heading into the weekend, Warner Bros. expected Space Jam 2 to open in the $20 million range in North America. That would have been a problematic start for a movie that cost a reported $150 million to make. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Ah, that's an interesting new turn for WB, expect a disaster going in and be pleasantly surprised. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
Escape Room's release date was terrible, just move it to next January |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Weekend Estimates |
I hope we’ll one day know the estimated ‘revenue’ from new HBO Max subscriptions attributed to SJ2. Looks like steep 2nd weekend drops are the norm. Fortunately there’s very little direct competition this upcoming weekend. |
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