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 Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year? 
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Post Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
So with Black Widow hitting its expectations, I guess the only question left is what movies remain with 200+ potential and maybe 750+ WW? The other Marvel films will probably be in that 450-600 range, and while Matrix will probably be big overseas, I'm still not sure 150+ is a guarantee in the states. Top Gun could surprise, but who the hell knows at this point. I'm sticking with the two safe bets. Spider-man look to steal the year for Sony... Or Sony/Marvel/Disney/Amazon? But I won't count Bond out for a few reasons.

1. Release Date: October actually is a great time for Bond because November and December are actually pretty stacked now with Eternals, Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Matrix, Spiderman, Sing, West Side Story, and Kings Man. I think Spiderman is the clear favorite, but the competition is actually refreshingly strong, so they might eat into each other.

Also if the Pandemic is going to get bad again, it'll be during that period, so October feels like the safest time to get a big hit, and some films might actually be forced to change dates yet again. So Spider-man could conceivably forfeit for that reason alone.

2. Sony/Amazon has doubled down on its no streaming stance, and the film has not leaked yet and the film is being released WW within a week. So by getting all of its money from cinemas is another advantage. I'm not sure how the release will work for Spider-Man yet.

3. It is Craig's last Bond and even the softness of Spectre has long since faded, it only took Skyfall 4 years. It's been a whole 6 years since we last saw Bond. Hell thanks to the delays they could have already filmed Craig's replacement movie in the process. And It's not everyday your film's song won a grammy and is already forgotten by the time your movie comes out. It's been delayed and delayed, so it does feel like the longest time coming for pandemic movies. But you have the wild card that this is the giant Spider-man mash up movie. I think that alone will trump everything and be the most exciting thing to happen to the theaters in a minute, so if Spidey starts marketing the hell out of it, it'll be a no brainer. But even then, the competition and uncertainty of the pandemic still makes me hesitant to say how big an opening this can have.

No Time to Die
OW- 115
Total- 270
OS- 560
WW- 830

Is that enough to win the year? The last 2 films to win all 3 were Endgame and the First Avengers, and the first Non Marvel film since Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 10 years ago. If Christmas is as usual, Spider-Man could have some ridiculous 8 legged action.

Spider-man: No Way Home (This really is a shot in the dark, it could be massive opening wise)
OW- 135
Total- 380-550??
OS- 500
WW- 880-1.5 billion

Thoughts?

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Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:35 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Bond is gonna open to less than Black Widow.

It's gonna be interesting to see how winter goes. Hopefully a vaccine booster is distributed by then and we don't get something worse than Delta variant. Spider-Man 3 with Tobey and Andrew back is gonna do gangbusters.


Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:42 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Delta variant will affect unvaccinated areas that aren’t moviegoing hotspots regardless.

Spider Man should do 120m+, and could go high as 150m if it meets full potential.


Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:58 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Bond is gonna open to less than Black Widow.

It's gonna be interesting to see how winter goes. Hopefully a vaccine booster is distributed by then and we don't get something worse than Delta variant. Spider-Man 3 with Tobey and Andrew back is gonna do gangbusters.


I think no matter the opening, Bond will be good for 200, never 300. The other side is Bond could blow up internationally where Spider-Man could domestically. So the ground for a potential draw is there. But Far From Home was huge internationally as well but was that more the Endgame effect?

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Mon Jul 12, 2021 4:07 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Spider-Man unless Eternals breaks out huge. The wildcard is Matrix but that probably won’t even come out this year.


Mon Jul 12, 2021 5:09 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Spider-Man being in December still feels weird. Spider-Man is such a summer franchise to me.

that said, if Spider-Man doesn't break 250m DOM in December, Hollywood will have a crisis because there may not a "return to normal" in 2022. The only way I don't see it happening is if theres another viral breakout or if the film just has atrocious WOM.

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Mon Jul 12, 2021 6:26 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Magnus wrote:
Spider-Man being in December still feels weird. Spider-Man is such a summer franchise to me.

that said, if Spider-Man doesn't break 250m DOM in December, Hollywood will have a crisis because there may not a "return to normal" in 2022. The only way I don't see it happening is if theres another viral breakout or if the film just has atrocious WOM.


Into the Spider-Verse set a bit of precedent.

I like the idea of a major established comic franchise releasing in that frame, honestly.


Mon Jul 12, 2021 6:53 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
THE BATMAN should have opened in that December date. Dumb WB. Spider-man feels a bit played out to me at this point. I was sure FFH was going to open huge coming off of END GAME and it was just "big". Bond kinda has the same feel.

THE BATMAN will be the first real massive opening weekend post cover no doubt.

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Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:57 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
I am also firmly of the opinion something is going to break out way, way bigger than expected. Maybe not on opening weekend but just sustained business due to screen counts and wom. JUNGLE CRUISE maybe?

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Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:58 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Spider-Man. Bond movies don't get higher than $250m and I don't see how this will happen now after the movie has been delayed longer. Yes the stink of Specter has died down but then again the anticipation for a new Bond movie has also died down because marketing was almost at peak just at the start of pandemic.


Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:13 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Another important question: can Spider-Man (presumably the domestic winner) top Hi Mom? Far From Home went over $1.1B before covid.


Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:07 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
If vaccination drive is strong throughout the world then yes it will top Hi Mom. Let's wait and see what BW ends up with WW. If BW can somehow manage $400m+ WW with D+ then Spider-man can do $850m without streaming in December for sure.


Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:17 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Excel wrote:
THE BATMAN should have opened in that December date. Dumb WB. Spider-man feels a bit played out to me at this point. I was sure FFH was going to open huge coming off of END GAME and it was just "big". Bond kinda has the same feel.

THE BATMAN will be the first real massive opening weekend post cover no doubt.


Spider Man is played out but Batman isn’t?


Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:51 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
zwackerm wrote:
Excel wrote:
THE BATMAN should have opened in that December date. Dumb WB. Spider-man feels a bit played out to me at this point. I was sure FFH was going to open huge coming off of END GAME and it was just "big". Bond kinda has the same feel.

THE BATMAN will be the first real massive opening weekend post cover no doubt.


Spider Man is played out but Batman isn’t?


Excel at his hyping best there :funny:


Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:36 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
It may be too late, but I’m surprised Bond wasn’t moved up to summer. They could’ve opened it this coming Friday and not face direct competition outside of Jungle Cruise, until Suicide Squad. And after that it would’ve remained in the top five (unless it’s shit) into September. Now I’m 50/50 if it’ll even get released this year.

I think even with four Marvel films though, Spidey will still win the year. BW had a very good opening, but if Spidey were in its place, it would’ve opened significantly higher. The demand is there.

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Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:02 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
If European markets is 100% normal then Bond could come close otherwise Spider-man should be the big favorite. Great release date and is strong in domestic and overseas markets.

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Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:50 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Jmart wrote:
It may be too late, but I’m surprised Bond wasn’t moved up to summer. They could’ve opened it this coming Friday and not face direct competition outside of Jungle Cruise, until Suicide Squad. And after that it would’ve remained in the top five (unless it’s shit) into September. Now I’m 50/50 if it’ll even get released this year.

I think even with four Marvel films though, Spidey will still win the year. BW had a very good opening, but if Spidey were in its place, it would’ve opened significantly higher. The demand is there.


Yes was thinking the same.

Spidey will win the year as long as it doesn't get screwed over with the December release (like WW1984).

Bond should do well in October but it should have been moved up to even August. They probably should still do it.

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Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:59 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
I believe Sony saved money by releasing Venom, Hotel Transylvania, and Bond within a few weeks. It costs a lot of money to move a film, and unlike the other films of the pandemic that went TBD, Bond unfortunately set multiple release dates which hurt it financially.

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Fri Jul 16, 2021 3:27 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
I honestly think The Matrix 4 has a slim shot at this. Keanu has stayed very relevant with John Wick (last one doing $170M+), its got the late 90's/early 00's nostalgia, December holidays, etc. Even with tough competition and poorly received sequels, almost 20 years has passed that it does feel like it could get a decent run.


Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:01 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
O wrote:
I honestly think The Matrix 4 has a slim shot at this. Keanu has stayed very relevant with John Wick (last one doing $170M+), its got the late 90's/early 00's nostalgia, December holidays, etc. Even with tough competition and poorly received sequels, almost 20 years has passed that it does feel like it could get a decent run.


Matrix will end in $180-$230m range of the market stays the same. Spidey will do more.


Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:51 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Keyser Söze wrote:
If European markets is 100% normal then Bond could come close otherwise Spider-man should be the big favorite. Great release date and is strong in domestic and overseas markets.



The only hope for European boxoffice markets is another Ice Age sequel. :D

https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Ice-Age

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Mon Jul 19, 2021 12:42 am
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Spiderman and it's not even close.

That trailwr was perfect

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Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:06 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Amazing teaser, showed just enough.

Hopefully the media stops COVID fear mongering in time for this to do gangbusters


Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:42 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
zwackerm wrote:
Amazing teaser, showed just enough.

Hopefully the media stops COVID fear mongering in time for this to do gangbusters


I think it's more likely that unvaxxed people in half the country won't be able to go to movie theatres in December

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Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:06 pm
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Post Re: Bond or Spider-Man, who will win the year?
Don't think Bond will even come close to the excitement of Spiderman. Bond feels like another installment where as Spidey feels like melding old with new in a good way.


Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:11 pm
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