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 July 16-18 Predictions 

Space Jam 2: Over/Under $30M?
Poll ended at Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:13 pm
$30M or more 25%  25%  [ 2 ]
$29.99M or less 75%  75%  [ 6 ]
Total votes : 8

 July 16-18 Predictions 
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Post July 16-18 Predictions
Space Jam 2: $35M (HBO MAX may impact it, but advertisements have been fantastic for it)
Escape Room 2: $9M

Black Widow: -58%


Last edited by bl1222 on Sat Jul 10, 2021 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:13 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
I hope Space Jam does $30m+. In regular times I'd be predicting $40m+ but as of now I think $29m sounds about right.

I predict 61% drop for Black Widow. So probably around $34m. Would be interesting if #1 is close.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:26 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Space Jam had so much going for it ... until the actual marketing started. It looks sooooo bad lol. Still, it's a movie that has a shit ton of nostalgia vibes, hits all demographics and opens during the NBA finals. So I'm sticking with my $35M prediction.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:33 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Space Jam looks bad so I'll go with $20m such is great for a movie releasing simultaneously on streaming, I don't think this is a must see movie for many and it fits the home-viewing category perfectly.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:38 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Space Jam looks bad so I'll go with $20m such is great for a movie releasing simultaneously on streaming, I don't think this is a must see movie for many and it fits the home-viewing category perfectly.


Early reviews do indicate that. It's one of those films that will breakout so big or will flop so hard. I hope the best for it.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:00 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
If the reviews are bad expect this to flop in theaters and do well in streaming though not sure how many people have HBO MAX at this point.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:57 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
If the reviews are bad expect this to flop in theaters and do well in streaming though not sure how many people have HBO MAX at this point.


Good point. I love you getting active in the BO forums. We may not always agree all the time, but I love you being in the WOKJ community.

By the way, do you have any opinions on Escape Room 2? That's a sequel nobody asked for, but horror has been on a hot streak. Still, the horror glut could impact it and if the reviews are like Grudge 2 quality or worse, it has a chance to open below 10m.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:05 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Escape Room 2 represents a fun escape so I think it will do well. The first opened to $18.2m so even with a sequel decrease (from a over performing concept thriller original) it was projected to open barely above $10m ($11m-$13m) in regular times. It will open between $8m-$10m because it's not available on streaming. I don't think blast of horror films work in it's favour because this isn't your typical horror movie, it's a concept thriller with minor hints of horror plus one that the target audience can experience in real life (albeit without the theatrics and drama).


Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:26 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
61% drop from 80m would give BW around $31m 2nd weekend. Space Jam may have a chance at #1. The weekend after maybe Old will be #1? Wow.


Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:40 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Yeah Space Jam is not going to open at #1 but Old will definitely do it.


Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:50 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Space Jam will open "big" i.e. 35m OW but I see absolute shit legs and a sub-85m total.

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Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:03 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Magnus wrote:
Space Jam will open "big" i.e. 35m OW but I see absolute shit legs and a sub-85m total.


Similar to the first one in a way - but at a much lower level (inflation adjusted)

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Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:26 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
PS started really slow but has increased big time past 3 days. I am thinking OD in low teens and that should be enough for mid 30's OW even without previews. BW should do late 20's at best depending on how the weekday holds go. Dont forget BW had high previews and sunday number relative the OW was quite low(Bad saturday drop due to PA).

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Wed Jul 14, 2021 12:18 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
No previews for Space Jam is such a fail. At least WB is doing then for TSS.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 1:27 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Space Jam would have benefited from previews and that's another stupid release decision from WB. Good to know that presales have gone better. This is available on HBO MAX for free so that will impact it's Saturday and Sunday.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 2:53 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Looks like a disappointment but 25m should be doable.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 6:20 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Pre-sales are looking very good for space jam 2. Would not be surprised with a 35+ opening at this point.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:52 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Expect it to be presales heavy like Black Widow.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:57 am
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
I must be the wrong demographic for Space Jam, I don't get the hype or need for this sequel.

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Wed Jul 14, 2021 1:14 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
I must be the wrong demographic for Space Jam, I don't get the hype or need for this sequel.


Welcome to the club. You're not alone, few other posters are in the same boat.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:56 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
It's 90s nostalgia. Space Jam 1 is not good at all but I do have fond memories of seeing it when I was a child


Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:04 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Space Jam 1 is awesome. :mad:

39 on meta for Lebrons version. Not surprising but hopefully it won’t matter too much for opening weekend.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:35 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
The first one didn't get good reviews so this one getting worse reviews is not surprising but I do think it will push on edge audience to streaming.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:10 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
I feel like critics were tougher on blockbusters in the 90s. Jurassic Park only has a 68 on meta. Space Jam has a 59, the same as Independence Day.


Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:55 pm
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Post Re: July 16-18 Predictions
Presales did not increase as much as i expected and so I would say 29m OW for Space Jam and 27m for Black Widow 2nd weekend. Still let us see how walkups go on friday.

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Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:33 am
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