2022 had 8... how many will this year have?

From MCU, feel like Guardians is the only sure bet. For DC... Aquaman should but given whatever the hell is happening with the franchise who knows.

No Mission Impossible movie has grossed over $225m. Will this one do it? Eh.

The Little Mermaid I feel will. Super Mario is a contender.

Don't know if we'll reach 8+ this year, what do y'all think

TGM halo effect. Will be a big MI

these 11

Super Mario Bros 300-500
GOTG 3 300-475
Mission Impossible 7 300-400
The Little Mermaid 300-500
Across the Spider-Verse 300-450
Indy 5 300-400
BARBIE 300-325
The Marvels 300-450
DUNE 2 300-375
WISH 300-450
Aquaman 2 300-350

1. The Little Mermaid 410m
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 405m
3. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 390m
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 370m
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie 365m
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 320m

I see a lot of films in the 200m range as well so the fact we'll have less 300m grossers won't do much to the overall yearly haul

Dune: Part 2? Barbie?

Go ahead laugh it up, Fuzzball!

I did some year-long predictions a few days ago, and yeah Guardians is the only movie I feel comfortable calling a lock. Little Mermaid is close to a lock - I'm concerned Disney has been diluting the fbrand on these live-action remake with how forgettable they are and how many have gone straight-to-Disney+, but Little Mermaid is one of the last stone cold classics that people would be excited to see in live-action so I think it makes it. Also gonna bet on Mario, because the brand on that one is so strong across so many demographics, and it'll also be the first family film over three whole months will help as well. Indiana Jones is also a serious contender as all four of the last movies adjust to $400M+, but I do wonder how much Crystal Skull cooled off interest in yet another revisiting to the character.

I don't see how Indiana Jones misses 300m when KOTCS flew past it 14 years ago.

I'm only really confident with these four:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie $410million
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $365 million
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $333 million
4. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 $302 million

I guess The Marvels and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom should make it, right? I mean, their predecessors did so why wouldn't they also? But...I don't know why, I'm verging on them disappointing. If Aquaman makes, say, $295 million, that's still a huge gross. And I don't see the buzz that rode Captain Marvel to $400 million still working in 2023. I'm expecting a severe drop. The animated Spider-Man sequel? Yeah, nah. The first didn't even make $200 million. The Little Mermaid? It'll make good money, but I just have a feeling the black actress factor won't sit well enough with people for it to be a dead cert for $300 million.

I don't know if The Little Mermaid makes it to $300M. I feel audiences are tired of Disney remakes.

Just watch M3Gan somehow make it on here. 95% RT from 100 reviews. Reading these reviews makes this sound like an Oscar contender.

It's only the first week of January, but we already have one of the best villains of 2023.
M3GAN -- thank god -- delivers the goods.
M3GAN is poised to crack the murder-doll pantheon and stay there forever.
Campy horror is in a new era, and it is thriving.
M3GAN is instantly a cultural and cinematic phenomenon.
Feeling like an instant classic. It’s the first great film of 2023.
This is a killer crowd-pleaser that is perfectly sinister and silly.
M3GAN lives up to the hype.
One of those films that deserves the hype and then some.
A pleasantly nutty thriller
The first new release of 2023 may also be the best new release of 2023.
It's a preposterous hoot
It’s going to make movie-goers giddy.
So deadly funny and sly
One of the best “first movies of the year”
An intelligently unhinged work that updates the killer dolls subgenre for the modern era
M3GAN like many of the toy dolls before her, is iconic.
A wildly entertaining, outrageously funny and campy horror comedy
Director Gerard Johnstone knocked it out of the park
Terminator meets Clueless! Shockingly good - excellent horror comedy that works on every level.
M3GAN is an instant cult classic.
Captures alchemical blend of heart, humor, havoc you find rarely in crossover classics like Gremlins
A spectacle of silliness that more often than not delivers brazen macabre madness.
An absolute laugh riot that finds the right balance between comedy and drama.
M3GAN is a true riot, a rollicking and campy romp
An entertainingly nasty film for the new year.
A horror-comedy blast.

Stranger things have happened, but O losing his shit, that’s a KJ first. That’s a deep dive of insanity!

I think the ones that'll do it are Super Mario, Little Mermaid, Indy and Guardians.

Maybes are The Flash and The Marvels.

If it’s good, Spider Verse will make it.

Super Mario Bros
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission Impossible 7.1
The Flash
Elemental (if it is Inside Out/Coco/Up quality)
Indiana Jones 5
Aquaman 2



PS. Super Mario will win the year!!!

Lolol

Only got 5 this year. TLM missed it by less than 2m, ugh.

2022 has no films in the 200s while 2023 only had TLM and Quantumania. These days seems grossing in the 200s is rare.

The Marvels, Aquaman 2 and The Flash will be lucky to get to 300 million combined They might make less than the powerhouse trio of Indy 5, Wish and Haunted Mansion which is currently around 300.

Aquaman is doing better than I was expecting given the expectation game has changed so much.

$95M less budget than The Flash and $65M less than Marvels but will outgross them both. It can maybe even somehow manage to get $120M.

Given it didn't just have to deal with superhero fatigue but Amber Heard, reshoots, bad buzz, it feels like a best case scenario for WB.

Oh this is embarrassing, lol

I guess we can use this thread for 2024.

Inside Out 2 should be a lock... as should Deadpool 3.

Joker 2 is gonna open huge, idk how big would be enough for 300m. Don't expect it to have legs like the first.

Ticket prices are about 20% higher than they were in 2019 so Joker 2 now adjusts to about $402.5M.

$300M+ will happen even if it loses 25.5% of it's predecessor's audience. With the legs and viewership after it left theatrical really is in a good position to get past there.

The movie industry has changed a lot in this new post pandemic 2020s. It seems like big movies still come out, but the quantity for true blockbusters are down with moderate hits being up. I wonder if that is true. Are there more 50m to 100m domestic gainers this year than previous?

Inside Out 2 is basically the only lock.

Deadpool 3 and Joker 2 should get there in theory unless they're terrible.

Despicable Me 4 has a good shot.

Then we have wildcards: Twisters, Gladiator 2, and Wicked. All based on existing properties but feel fresh enough as movies they could break out.

Then we have Mufasa, which to me feels like another hubristic Disney production destined to bomb (who asked for a Lion King prequel?) but on precedent it belongs in the $300M+ conversation.

Everything else feels impossible tbh. I know it'd be amazing if Dune becomes another LOTR but the first movie didn't really do that well.

Wicked if it’s good (which is not guaranteed considering it’s being bloated into 2 halves), it would do 300m easy.

Oz the Great and Powerful sucks and still adjusts to like 300m.