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 Could Toy Story 3 have had better legs? 
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Waitress in LA

Joined: Fri May 21, 2021 5:38 pm
Posts: 22
Post Could Toy Story 3 have had better legs?
Toy Story 3 was Pixar’s most-anticipated film ever at the time, and that led to it having a $110.3M opening (the best June debut until Man of Steel in 2013 and the best debut for Pixar). Its 2nd weekend drop was normal (46%), but after that its drops were kind of odd. It dropped 49% over 4th of July weekend (Independence Day landing on a Sunday warps the box office which then causes big drop-offs so I’ve heard), then the next weekend fell only 30.6%. But its July holds after that were a bit weird, like it dropped 42.9% one weekend, then 25.7% the next weekend, then 42.6%, then 39.1%. The holds overall were worse than Shrek 2, which finished with $441.2M. It feels like given the critical acclaim (98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 92 on Metacritic) that it should’ve been able to have the WOM and legs to pass Shrek 2, despite failing to match Shrek The Third’s animated opening record ($121.6M). Had it matched Shrek 3’s opening record, it would have easily been able to match Shrek 2. It did reach $400M however, finishing at $415M, which is still a lot of money, and was good enough to put it in the all-time top 10 until 2012, when Avengers & TDKR kicked it out. But could Toy Story 3 have had better drops in July?

(Even Toy Story 4 had better holds in July/early August and it was going up against bigger competition, Spider-Man: Far From Home and The Lion King, the latter of which was more hyped up than any family film ever, plus Aladdin and Yesterday holdovers. The competition might have lesser in numbers but the individual films grossed a lot more and were more hyped up than Inception, Sorcerer’s Apprentice, and Despicable Me).

For comparison, here’s TS3 vs TS4 and Shrek 2’s July drops

TS3:
July 2-4: 49%
July 9-11: 30.6%
July 16-18: 42.9%
July 23-25: 25.7%
July 30-Aug 1: 42.6%
Aug 6-8: 39.1%

TS4:
July 5-7: 43.3%
July 12-14: 38.1%
July 19-21: 25.8%
July 26-28: 32.8%
Aug 2-4: 29.7%

Shrek 2:
July 2-4: 42.9%
July 9-11: 23.8%
July 16-18: 27.4%
July 23-25: 28.3%
Jul 30-Aug 1: 43.1%


Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:36 pm
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Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3127
Post Re: Could Toy Story 3 have had better legs?
It's competition in the ensuing weekends were Twilight, Last Airbender and Despicable Me. Major films against a second sequel going after the same audiences. I can see how it might under-perform.

I remember getting its OW exactly right on Boxoffice Mojo's Derby, down to the decimal point. The highlight of my Derby career and one of the few times I wasn't near the bottom of the rankings.

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Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:37 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36915
Post Re: Could Toy Story 3 have had better legs?
Couldn't ANY MOVIE have had better legs? TS3 did fine, you have to remember it opened bigger because of its summer release date so its a decision that studios make consicely when planning their annual calendar.

The comparison to Shrek 2 is just not going to cut it because it was a different market and different release dates plus the target audience for Shrek 2 were slightly different and they quickly moved away from the franchise.


Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:28 am
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