So as you know, there have been film adaptions of Broadway musicals (such as Hairspray, Les Misérables, and the upcoming Dear Evan Hansen). But I think a Wicked movie could potentially do well. Why? Well the musical is very popular (in the US it’s second in grosses to only The Lion King) and I often hear stories of theater workers asking “When is Wicked coming back?” because it generates a lot of revenue for theaters due to the high popularity among musical audiences.

So how well would a Wicked movie do? Would it be able to beat Oz the Great and Powerful (which did decently in the US with $235M but not so much overseas, making only $258M which resulted in $493M WW. Not the worst performance but it was clear Disney was hoping it would replicate Alice in Wonderland’s $1B success.)?

I think if it’s good it could be a $1B grosser.

Good but definitely not $1b.

I guess it depends on when it's coming out and if it attracts people not usually into musicals like Greatest Showman.

You can bump this if it happens but 1 billion would absolutely not happen unless a market overseas latches onto it.

Wicked would definitely become the highest grossing musical adaptation, as long as it was marketed well and didn’t suck.

Wicked is huge worldwide like Les Mis and Phantom, so I could see big overseas numbers as well. I’d think it. Would have a chance to beat Mamma Mia worldwide.

Japan could latch onto it. They love musicals and live-action fantasy stuff like Alice in Wonderland which did $133M there. I think BatB made big money there and Aladdin too ($113M I think though I may be wrong, I know it’s in the $100-120M range tho).

I mean it really depends, I'm not sure Wicked's plot really would translate well, and the shows that are usually currently popular tend to be some of the worse adaptations. But then you have Les Mis come completely out of left field. It's going to depend on who is involved and how it's marketed.

Zwacks if right about the appeal, but Phantom was a disaster. They need a really high profile actress to get behind it, and I don't see that happening anytime soon. That could be a hit, or do they go for the obvious and try to get Idina Menzel to come back, but that might limit it's cinematic potential. Either if it gains enough buzz I think it's in that Mama Mia realm of potential.

Well Idina Menzel might actually boost its potential, she’s fresh off Frozen/Frozen II popularity, and it has been proven that she can definitely sing.

I'd be surprised if Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenoweth aren't involved in the movie in some way. But they're both too old now to portray Elphaba and Glinda now. Both can still sing, of course, but these characters are young in the story. I don't believe any ages were ever given, but just assuming that witches in Oz attend university at a similar age, they'd be either almost or about 20 around the beginning, and maybe like 25 around the end. Obviously this if fiction so there's plenty of wiggle room to be had here, but the story doesn't suggest they're any older than normal college-aged students.

Obviously you can cast older actors to portray young characters, it happens all the time, but not 50+ year-olds playing 20-somethings. I'm not familiar with the other cast members in later productions, but if they're wanting to cast former cast members from the musical, surely there are others to reprise the role(s) in the movie. (I'd personally be for them going with non-musical cast members though for the main roles.) Menzel and Chenoweth could still be apart of the film in an acting role, such as playing Madame Morrible.

It feels like this movie is past the point of its full-potential to me though. Not necessarily due to its age, far older musicals got movie adaptations, but I don't see it discussed too much anymore. Has it been doing well in more recent years?

Honestly Oz the great and Powerful came out at probably the perfect time, and I think either way it will be compared box office wise to that one.

Wicked has that Mary Poppins type vibe to it because it's always going to be compared to the 1939 film, and arguably the Raimi film was a decent hit (it just needed to cost what Cinderella did, but 234 in the states was very good) Is there anyway that they could merge the two and cast Kunis and Williams? It's a crazy idea but they way hollywood is getting bolder in their merging of older properties it's not a horrible idea marketing wise. I don't think either the sequel to Oz or Wicked on it's own are too compelling a story for the screen.

Seems obvious that Disney Animated Studios shoud tackle this one. A live action version would do fine, but an animated version with Menzel is probably headed for a billion.

That would be too similar to Frozen, definitely should be live action.

OP is delusional. This would do $250m-$300m at the very most. It's still a fairly niche property and Oz Great and Powerful underperforming despite the enormous promotional push proved no one really cares that much about the Wizard of Oz these days. The thing has been in development hell for over a decade too which tells me it's not so easy to adapt.

It's not getting $1b. Animated movie will lose a lot of target audience.

Under normal market conditions if it's well-received I think a target of $400-500m WW.

why are we talking about this as a hypothetical when there is indeed a film that is being made?

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/jon- ... 234898316/

Well isn't every movie basically a hypothetical at this point until the pandemic is no longer around. Is it even worth making predictions as there is like 4 different ways to predict the film based on that. We don't even know how films would do right now if everything went right back to normal today.

We all sound like a bunch of old timers sitting in a bingo hall saying "In My day, this'd make clear 200 million and still walk 20 miles in the snow!"

Yeah I just read that the movie is happening. Good call Fedora. We should convert this into a predictions thread eventually once we get more details of production.

Ariana Grande has been cast as Glinda, Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba. Pretty much perfect casting IMO.

Perfect casting with a lead that can sing and bring a good fanbase but can't act.

Ariana Grande is an actress before she was a pop singer she was on Broadway and TV.

And yet.....

In defense of Ariana, Glinda isn't the most difficult role. It's very bubblegum and she should nail it.

Great casting, indeed.

Ariana knows Wicked and has stated she's wanted to portray Glinda in the past. Plus, she and Chenoweth are close friends, so fitting choice.

Cynthia Erivo was good in Harriet. And her singing ability speaks for itself with all her awards. Just look up "I'm Here" from The Color Purple. She has all the talent to portray Elphaba.

Not excited about Ariana in this role

274M followers. Let's see how that translates to box office!