Spider Man No Way Home 249m
Nightmare Alley 5m (think this won't be super wide, Movie Taverns are not even getting it)
Encanto- -20%
West Side Story -33%

Spider Man No Way Home 198m
Nightmare Alley 5m

No Way Home - 234
Nightmare Alley - 4.7

I thought you were going with $236m pe?

I’d be amazed to see Spider-man open above $200m. I think in pandemic times that’d be phenomenal.

So, I might be “low-balling” it, but I’ll say $157m

The insiders at BOT say Spider-Man has already sold $100m+ in presales. Seems like a matter of how much more than $200m can it do.

Yeah this is going past $200m with ease.

So excited to just see the theater packed tonight. Will really feel like the movies are back

I will say 222m for now. Looking at showcounts at AMC, it has more shows for previews than fri/sat for now. I think nothing except spidey is playing once preview starts today. But tomorrow some screens will be with holdovers even though almost all of them will lose most of their screens.

Could eat these words but I'm actually predicting a What Went Wrong thread followed by good legs and still a great total. The 2nd one took 6 days to get to 185 in summer, 200 mil OW in December during pandemic would be a really big jump.

Cannot compare to FFH. That had ok presales. This is comparing to endgame in most markets. just look at OS openings. its crushing FFH in most markets and setting new OD record in Mexico(ahead of Endgame if I am not wrong).

It has crazy amount of shows tonight. Thinking previews in 45-50m range for now. As of yesterday night AMC alone had sold > 10m in presales. Probably will finish around 12m or so and will be around 25% of overall BO.

I get it I just think if it opens to 180mil that's still like twice as good as FFH would've done if it was released in December 2019, and in a pandemic.

^ Then again if it crosses $200m its because of the additional hype and inclusion of multiverse which the audience really wanted to see from MCU at this point.

I’m lowering my prediction to $114m, same as original Spider-man. jk

I just don’t wanna buy into presale hype and be disappointed with a great opening, aa Shack is suggesting could happen.

If it gets a 3 OW ever, right now, that’d be absolutely insane.

Based on what? I mean the presales for the weekend are already around $100m mark so do you think it will have no walk-in? The lowest I see this doing is $175m and that is if it crashes after OD.

As i posted it other thread. Looking around 52m previews. That should ensure 230m+ OW I think . Spillover will be super strong and crazy strong reviews should help.

The WoM on this is gonna be crazy.

That's how it gets to 180-190 which would be an extraordinary opening for a December movie in a pandemic, arguably would be top 5 most impressive opening all time with Endgame, Infinity War, The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. Actually opening to 220-230 would make it more impressive than IW and maybe TFA opening weekends to me when considering everything. I mean IW might have only been around 220 or 230 or something if it came out in December and that's before considering the pandemic. If you said the pandemic was -20% to throw a number out it would mean anything in 200-210 range is as impressive as Infinity War and Force Awakens and 180 puts you around Last Jedi level. I have a hard time believing this has not just equal but PLUS Infinity War anticipation which they were building to for 10 years and had everyone in it, however seems like I could be proven wrong. Having roughly Last Jedi level opening, the sequel to the biggest movie of all time would still be EXTREMELY good.

No Way Home belongs in the same conversation with those films. The numbers over the next two weeks are gonna be nuts. $700M+ is gonna happen.