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| 3 day weekend estimates https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=87210 |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | 3 day weekend estimates |
$2.87m NEW MUTANTS (-59 %) $1.67m UNHINGED (-36 %) $0.36m COPPERFIELD (-24 %) $0.35m SPONGEBOB (-19 %) |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Still no Tenet. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Variety is reporting $20.2 million over the weekend (4-day since it opened on Thursday?). No daily breakdown or how much came from early access showings or anything yet. |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
5-Day of $20.2 million. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Pretty disappointing considering the $20.2m also include a full week of Canada grosses three days of previews in the U.S. plus Thursday and Monday grosses.... |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Truthfully feel this would have barely hit $50m opening weekend under normal summer conditions anyway. The marketing has been downright awful - both quality and quantity. Nolan made a movie so complex that it basically could not be advertised. We'll see how legs are. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
$20M seems about right. Hopefully it doesn’t drop as hard as New Mutants over the next month. Is this bad enough to delay Wonder Woman? |
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| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
I feel like it's right on that "good enough" bubble. We'll have to see the second weekend gross, but since it did $20.2 million over five-days, and as mark66 mentioned, a figure that also includes a week's worth of earnings from Canada and three-days worth of previews in the U.S., I have a hard time seeing a good second weekend hold as a result of so many numbers being included in its "opening." I'd like for Disney to release what Mulan earned in its premium access weekend for a comparison to this. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Ouch. Not good. Next weekend will probably dip to single digits. |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
The Numbers and BOM listed $20.2m as Tenet's 3-day OW gross while it's supposed to be an estimate through Monday. Assuming Tenet earned in early access $3m and $2m in the US and Canada respectively, a Thu-Mon 5-day gross of $15m was not very impressive. But at least it doubled The New Mutants' 3-day OW. |
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| Author: | neo_wolf [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
With a very weak B cinemascore i think Tenet will drop fast. |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Tenet did well overseas, grossing $130m internationally. In Taiwan, it opened to $3m last weekend and held on to the top spot this week, beating Mulan's $1.2m OW. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Hopefully NY and LA can open in time for WW1984. But I won’t hold my breath. |
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| Author: | Dil [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
With all that's going on it could have been worse honestly, but even with that in consideration these numbers still aren't all that great unfortunately. Hopefully, it does better on the home market and is able to make some kind of profit down the line, because I don't believe the movie deserves to be an outright flop, but as far as BO success goes Warner Bros might have to wright this one off for now unless it develops godly legs at some point. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
I don't think this was blowing up anyway. The marketing sucked. Nolan made a film so fucking complex that it was not marketable. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
I'll say it because no one said it. For a movie that was supposed to save the industry from Covid19 this is a poor result specially when WB put all their might to fudge these numbers. That Cinemascore is weak, I saw somewhere that Mulan also got a B. I'll wait for next weekend but I feel a 45% drop next week is in order unless WB forces theaters to only show Tenet. Imagine if Mulan SAS releasing next weekend, we could be talking abigger nosedive at New Mutants level. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
"Saving cinema" was not going to happen overnight, this was a painful step 1 in normalizing thing. Someone had to do it. The first "big" movie to come out was always going to be a guinea pig and likely struggle. The lockdowns are nearly 6 months in at this point - everyone is used to theaters being closed and as has been noted, 2/3rd of the country did not know their theater was opened or that this was coming out. Part of the blame likes with WB for a terrible marketing campaign though on the other hand, very well may have been simply hedging their bets. Interestingly enough, even if the word spreads these next few days with "OMG TENET FLOPPED!" that actually may help it because by far the most common reaction will be "OMG THEATERS ARE OPEN!?!?" Regardless, this is just step 1, it had to happen and initial struggles were inevitable. No matter what, WB deserve kudos for actually having the balls to take the plunge and start it up. Things will only improve from here, especially with rumors of a vaccine coming within the next 2 months. While I would say it looks to be extremely foolish to release Wonder Woman 1984 in just a few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if theaters are really ready to roll come Thanksgiving with Bond and are fairly normalized by December - assuming a vaccine. Let's just hope for: -Decent Tenet holds from here on out -Continued "decline" in virus spread -Continued development of effective vaccines And theaters will really be able to stretch their legs soon. My guess is Bond will be the first movie to do any real money domestically & globally. Wonder Woman 1984 in mid December could be primed for a serious explosion, though. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
And yet it's still a poor number and you can read the posts before and the marketing push which all mentions the same fact "industry saviour" theme. I also mentioned let's wait for next weekend but I guess Nolan fans always get offended by the slightest of disagreement. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
With only 32% seating capacity in NA, Tenet’s domestic OW is roughly equivalent to ~$60m. It’s a good gross actually. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Yeah but it’s not selling out. So 60 million is what it could have made max, not an exact correlation |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
That $20m is essentially 6-day number. I do not think $60m for 6-day with the aid of holiday weekend is a great number. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Yeah. It was not the event type of movie to bring people back out. I’m more interested to here how Mulan did. |
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| Author: | Cynosure [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Excel wrote: "Saving cinema" was not going to happen overnight, this was a painful step 1 in normalizing thing. Someone had to do it. The first "big" movie to come out was always going to be a guinea pig and likely struggle. The lockdowns are nearly 6 months in at this point - everyone is used to theaters being closed and as has been noted, 2/3rd of the country did not know their theater was opened or that this was coming out. Part of the blame likes with WB for a terrible marketing campaign though on the other hand, very well may have been simply hedging their bets. Interestingly enough, even if the word spreads these next few days with "OMG TENET FLOPPED!" that actually may help it because by far the most common reaction will be "OMG THEATERS ARE OPEN!?!?" Regardless, this is just step 1, it had to happen and initial struggles were inevitable. No matter what, WB deserve kudos for actually having the balls to take the plunge and start it up. Things will only improve from here, especially with rumors of a vaccine coming within the next 2 months. While I would say it looks to be extremely foolish to release Wonder Woman 1984 in just a few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if theaters are really ready to roll come Thanksgiving with Bond and are fairly normalized by December - assuming a vaccine. Let's just hope for: -Decent Tenet holds from here on out -Continued "decline" in virus spread -Continued development of effective vaccines And theaters will really be able to stretch their legs soon. My guess is Bond will be the first movie to do any real money domestically & globally. Wonder Woman 1984 in mid December could be primed for a serious explosion, though. Unfortunately the odds of having a vaccine within the next 2 months are very low. Early 2021 at best, and even that's pushing it. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/heal ... index.html? The WHO has said Spring 2021, which is more in line with reasonable expectations. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Cynosure wrote: Excel wrote: "Saving cinema" was not going to happen overnight, this was a painful step 1 in normalizing thing. Someone had to do it. The first "big" movie to come out was always going to be a guinea pig and likely struggle. The lockdowns are nearly 6 months in at this point - everyone is used to theaters being closed and as has been noted, 2/3rd of the country did not know their theater was opened or that this was coming out. Part of the blame likes with WB for a terrible marketing campaign though on the other hand, very well may have been simply hedging their bets. Interestingly enough, even if the word spreads these next few days with "OMG TENET FLOPPED!" that actually may help it because by far the most common reaction will be "OMG THEATERS ARE OPEN!?!?" Regardless, this is just step 1, it had to happen and initial struggles were inevitable. No matter what, WB deserve kudos for actually having the balls to take the plunge and start it up. Things will only improve from here, especially with rumors of a vaccine coming within the next 2 months. While I would say it looks to be extremely foolish to release Wonder Woman 1984 in just a few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if theaters are really ready to roll come Thanksgiving with Bond and are fairly normalized by December - assuming a vaccine. Let's just hope for: -Decent Tenet holds from here on out -Continued "decline" in virus spread -Continued development of effective vaccines And theaters will really be able to stretch their legs soon. My guess is Bond will be the first movie to do any real money domestically & globally. Wonder Woman 1984 in mid December could be primed for a serious explosion, though. Unfortunately the odds of having a vaccine within the next 2 months are very low. Early 2021 at best, and even that's pushing it. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/heal ... index.html? The WHO has said Spring 2021, which is more in line with reasonable expectations. Excel is referring to an order from the surgeon general saying to be ready to begin distribution by No ember just in case. No one has said it will be ready in November. Most likely one will be approved this year for wide distribution by spring and distribution for healthcare workers and immunocompromised potentially earlier. |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 3 day weekend estimates |
Nobody is going to take the vaccine in November. Half the country won’t trust it, assuming that Trump is willing to sacrifice their health for political gain (which has been his MO in this pandemic). And his half still think covid is a hoax, and that Bill Gates is using the vaccine to implant microchips in them. |
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