You did get xXx 2 and Kingdom of Heaven right, even though the prediction was kinda vague...
but that Batman prediction...
| World of KJ https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/ |
|
| Haha! I'm Such A Dork (My 2004 BATMAN Prediction) https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=8491 |
Page 1 of 2 |
| Author: | Box [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Haha! I'm Such A Dork (My 2004 BATMAN Prediction) |
Ok, some of you might remember the incredible long and dull post. Well, on July 26th, 2004, so exactly ten months ago, I predicted that Batman Begins would open with $110m and finish with $400m. Ha...ha. Here's my original post: Ok, I posted this in Arsi's thread, but it didnt get any responses. So Im reposting it here: ----- Sigh, Im gonna shoot myself for saying this, but here it goes: Each year, we are almost always guaranteed that one film during summer will fill the void left my one craptacular film after another. After Van Helsing and Troy failed to excite the audience, which since The Passion in march had not gotten to experience a big film (and The Passion was an accident, really), Shrek 2 took all of the money Troy and Van Helsing lost. And its now heading towards the number 3 on the all time chart. In 2003, X2 lived up to its hype, more or less, and did quite well, much better than VH. Matrix Reloaded, however, was a disappointment, but had made so much money during its first week that it still ended up with $280m. However, that was way below what many expected ($350m+), and there was still a void left that was filled by Bruce and Nemo, especially Nemo, since there were no family films, and it was a much better film with better WOM. In 2002, a so-so spring didnt deliver any blockbuster like 2004's TPOTC, and The Two Towers had made almost all of its money by then, so the market was ripe for a biggie, and Spidey delivered. What helped in from its 3rd weekend onwards was that AOTC did not deliver. So SM1 filled that void. Signs stepped up to the plate during the last part of that summer, alwso filling the void there. In 2001, it was Shrek that did it, since Pearl Harbour was really quite badly received (Disney expected $350m+). No wonder, since the film sucked. In the late summer, JP3/Planet of the Apes/Rush Hour 2 provided the amusement audiences were seeking. In 2000, it was Gladiator that showed great legs in a so-so summer which didnt really have anything impressive to show. M:I 3 did ok, but it didnt do as well as it could have (read: $250m). So... Whats my point? Well, take a look at 2005: King of Heaven opens the summer, and it will do even worse than Van Helsing. WHo's bloody idea was it to have that film open in one of the most sought-after and prestigious weekends on the calendar??? They should have moved it to Memorial Day Weekend or July, but instead, its M: I 3 that got moved. Anyways, Kingdom of Heaven will not open with mroe than $45m. If Brad Pitt/Eric Bana/ Orlando Bloom + many more stars couldnt open Troy bigger, why would a far less attractive project make more? And anyways, the Crusades are not nearly as interesting a theme as it might seem on paper. Give the whole idea a thought, and it becomes obvious just how unattractive it is compared to Anicent Greece and Rome. So that one will leave a void to be filled (and btw, a lot of people arent interested in epic dramas to begin with; they will want something else). Then we have XXX2. Nothing much to say here; it will struggle to make half of that XXX, a royal piece of garbage totally undeserving of a sequel, did. Plus, no Vin Diesel (not that that makes a big difference, seeing how amazing Riddick did,lol). If it makes $80m, I'll be surprised. So yet another huge void there that hasnt been filled. Then we have Star Wars: Episode 3-The Revenge of the Sith. Well, this is a hard film to predict. If it is as good the the OT, it will grab the audience that stayed away from Kingdom and XXX2. If so, it will pass $400m easily, and Batman will have little chance of anything above $250m, and that only if it is lucky, since SW3 does have enough appeal to a general audience that would also be attracted to Batman, if it were not for SW3. However, I think SW3 will disappoint. $320m is what I predict, and its not really all that surprisng. If you look at Matrix Reloaded, SW3 will have an identical run. It opens on Thursday, on the weekend before Memorial Day, and it will no doubt have a huge first week, with all the fans rushing out. But if you lookat AOTC, it fell 40% second weekend, despite that being Memorial Weekend, where the Sunday acts like a second Saturday and is supposed to lead to small declines. Look at Shrek 2; only a 33% drop from a much bigger weekend. I think SW3 will drop 50%, simply because it will have a bigger opening due to it being the last film and people wanting to get it over with. This idea, 'wanting to get it over with', is something Ive been hearing about for a long time now. It seems the fanbase has eroded (from a 150m or so for the original OT), and I wouldnt be surprised if after 2 bad films, many fans will sitthis one out. Also keep in mind that the weekend after MMDWknd always has big drops, and SW3 could fall,like AOTC, more than 55%. At this moment I would say an opening day of $40m, followed by a 3-day opening of $100m, for $140m in 4 days. $50m 2nd Wknd 3-day, $67m 4-day, for a total of $243m after MMDWknd Monday. A 3rd weekend of $22.5m, and 45% declines after that, will bring its total to $313m, but I'll add another $7m just to give it a little room to move around. But you can see that even with a huge $140m 4-day Opening and a $67m 4-day second weekend, it could still struggle to pass $320m. Ok, on to Madagascar. Well, it will be the fifth, sixth, or 7th CGI from here on. Shark Tales, Incredibles, Robots, Valiant, etc. are all coming up, and I think people will just be tired by then. However, Madagascar could fill the Bruce Almighty position, with a similar opening and a similar total, so around $240m. So what else do we have left? Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy on June 3rd, but after some thought, I doubt it will pass $150m. And then, June 17th, Batman Begins. Keep in mind that, although SW3 will have $320m, and Madagascar $240m, SW3 wont be nearly as big as Shrek 2, and Madagascar is on par with HP3. HP3 and Shrek 2 are two of the top 3 films of this summer, and the third is a comic book film. Madagascar and SW3 are also part of the top 3, and the third one is also a comic book film. Shrek 2 was CGI, Madagascar is CGI; HP3 is aimed at all audiences and much darker than the first two films, and SW3 is also aimed at all audiences and much darker than the first two films (and keep in mind that HP3 grossed less than the first two even though it was a better film, and SW3 might be as well). Now, Spider-Man 2 was very well reviewed, hugely anticipated, and had an insane marketing push by Sony. Batman Begins is hugely anticipated as well, the marketing push has already begun one and a half years before it has even opened, and all signs point towards an excellent film. Spidey has proven that a comic book film can have a great story, so why cant Batman? The script seems to indicate it will be great film, and Nolan's films so far have shown him to be a very capable filmmaker. Unlike Spider-Man 2, however, Batman Begins is likely going to be a dark film. However, all three Lord of the Rings films were dark as well, and so was the first Batman and the second, and the first Batman adjusted grossed more than $400m. Now, since Shrek 2's place wont be taken over by SW3 (also a dark film, btw), and Madagascar wont even come close, it remains for Batman to rank at the top. Just a note: Mission Impossible 3 will not pass $200m and will struggle to match the original's $180m. The second film was pretty bad, and Cruise is definitly not big enough now to guarantee a $200m+ gross domestically. Plus, Paramount has been awful is marketing its films, and MI3 has been getting bad buzz due to the director quitting. They are still looking for a replacement. Fantastic Four will also disappoint; I can see it making less than $100m, and it will definitly not match 2000's X-Men. All other 2005 summer releases, with the exception of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which might very well pass $150m and even $170m, look rather unpromising. If Rush Hour 3 is a success, then thats good, but it will be an August release most likely, so Batman has nothing to fear from it. Final appraisal: Ive turned around on Batman (forget that stuff I wrote about it disappointing). Opening: $110m, Total: $400m. Yes, I think it will have great legs, especially since it has the advantage of strong weekdays, and Independence Day Weekend as its third, with many people off for almost a week. Note: Im basing this on the fact that this will be a great film, and that WOM will be amazing. As well, as I said earlier, this is only valid for as long as SW3 doesnt fly thorugh the roof and pass $400m. If so, Batman wont make it. Cheers :wink: p.s., feel free to criticize all and everything ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Needless to say, I have since backed down from that prediction. Those legs...my goodness. |
|
| Author: | bABA [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
batman begins june 15th. i wont even bother criticizing it. go change your prediction first : ) |
|
| Author: | MGKC [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
You did get xXx 2 and Kingdom of Heaven right, even though the prediction was kinda vague... but that Batman prediction...
|
|
| Author: | Box [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
bABA wrote: batman begins june 15th. i wont even bother criticizing it. go change your prediction first : ) Yes, that hadn't been announced at that time. But, you know, I do state in the post that, if SW3 breaks out, which it kinda has, then Batman would not do $400m, but $250m, and SW3 $400m. I also think I might not be too far off with some other predictions. The Hitchhiker and KOH ones were ok, and I think Madagascar might well end up in the mid-$200m area. |
|
| Author: | DP07 [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I actually remember this post from last year. 
|
|
| Author: | Box [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
DP07 wrote: I actually remember this post from last year. We're so sad 
Lol, I remember you posting in that thread as well =D> Mainly because I just checked. Em, btw, I will be totally off on the $150m for Charlie. But then again, I hadn't seen the trailer at that time. :razz: Ok, this is from June 8th, 2004: Ok, first, the scheduled films (at this moment): May 6, 2005 • Kingdom of Heaven • Mission Impossible 3 May 13, 2005 • XXX: State of the Union May 19, 2005 • Star Wars Episode III May 27, 2005 • Madagascar a few notes: Stae of the Union is a sort of sequel to XXX with Vin Diesel, only this time, its Ice Cube. Madagascar is DreamWorks' CGI animated film. Kingdom of Heaven is an 'epic' by Ridley Scott starring Orlando Bloom which is about the Crusades. SW3 is next year's most anticipated film. [long break] Alright, on to the big cheese. Straight up: $110m 3-day, $152m 4 day, and $450-500m final. Yes, I said $450-500m. This will be it. This is going to be the film that people wanted TPM to be. I sense a new excitement building around this franchise, which is shoulders above everything else. There won't be a Spider-Man to deal with, and no TPM to distance oneself from ( AOTC was in many ways a better film; I think it has at least given fans a sense that SW3 will be much better). If you think about the potential of the story, and how much there is that can be done, I doubt its possible for Lucas to screw this up; the hundreds of millions ( :!: ) who have seen the 5 films need to know what happens. There is a sense of completion that will appeal to the fans that have been dorment during TPM and especially AOTC's run. If this film can bring them out and get them into the seats, watch out! You can get greater name recognition than SW, so advertising is more or less done for; SW3 is already getting more buzz than any 2004 release (barring maybe SM2). Its release date of May 19th (Thursday) is a brilliant strategy. It will take away its chance to beat Spider-Man's $115m (or SM2, if that will beat it), but it should have a similar opening like AOTC's, only bigger. I think a $41m opening day for this film should not be shocking. This is the motehr of all fanboy franchises; people will be camping out for a month to see this. So obviously, the opening will be huge. As for its legs; as I said, I think this will be the SW that everyone has been wanting since ROTJ. This being so, its legs will be great, something along the line of Shrek 2, only SW3 will have a fanbase that will make sure it will continue its run thorughout the summer, and to be honest, SW is a franchise that is immune to any competition. Its not going to drop big when Batman comes out, because SW's fanbase (and demographics) makes Batman's look shameful. A breakdown: Thursday May 19 : $41.0 / $41 Friday May 20 : $30.0 / $71 Saturday May 21 : $44.0 / $115 Sunday May 22 : $36.0 / $151 Monday May 23 : $10.8 / $162 Tuesday May 24 : $10.4 / $172 Wednesday May 25 : $10.1 / $182 Thursday May 26 : $10.2 / $192 Friday May 27 : $20.3 / $213 Saturday May 28 : $30.5 / $243 Sunday May 29 : $27.4 / $271 Monday May 30 : $23.3 / $294 So, opening 3-day $110m, 4-day $151m, Week 1 $184.3m, Wknd 2(3-day): $81.1m, 4-day: $104.1m. Again, this is based on the assumption that this will be the SW we have been waiting for. If so, expect killer legs, and I wouldnt rule out 5 wknds above $20m, whatever the competition is. At this moment, I would say, $450m final. (btw, Shrek 2 has nothing to do with the prediction, its only helps in that it sohws that a film in that opening slot, if good, can go through the roof. I think SW3 will be a great film, and no, Im not a fanboy of this franchise, although I love ESB). SUMMARY: MI3: $87m/$250m Kingdom of Heaven: $45m/$130m XXX2: $38m/$100m SW3: $110m/$450m Madagascar: $45m/$155m So what do you think? http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... 24&start=0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~ Hahah, I'm so fickle. I changed my prediction for Madagascar from $155m to $240m in a month (see first post), and SW3's from $450m to $400m or $320m. I also brought down XXX2 and KOH (thank goodness). MI3 is gone for this year. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Box, you are wrong.
|
|
| Author: | bABA [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
my prediction for batman begins is now between 230 and 250 mil. a few new reasons have popped up, supporting both sides of the argument. bABA's breakdown of batman begins. below 150 million - impossible. Analysis will include reason. Between 150 and 180 million - If it just doesn't appeal to the audience. Disappointment. Probability: 25% Between 180 to 225 million - Decent. Batman is back in business. Disappointing only because he was a massive icon once. But credibility to the series may be restored now. Probability: 50% Between 225 and 260 million - A success. It will become the 2nd biggest comic book movie in recent times with that gross and establishing that the Bat is back and with a bang. Probability: 15% Between 260 to 300 million: Probability: 5%. Between 300 and 320 million: Probability: 3% Above 320 million: probability: 2% Probability only exists because of his iconic status only. I'll be writing up my analysis for this soon. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Batman. Will. Not. Cross. Two. Hundred. Million. Dollars. |
|
| Author: | neo_wolf [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
War of the worlds is going to hurt BB a lot. |
|
| Author: | bABA [ Thu May 26, 2005 2:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
neo_wolf wrote: War of the worlds is going to hurt BB a lot. well ... i'm expecting the bat to make up most of its gross in it first 2 weeks. |
|
| Author: | Joker's Thug #3 [ Thu May 26, 2005 4:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
neo_wolf wrote: War of the worlds is going to hurt BB a lot. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu May 26, 2005 4:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I am pretty certain that Batman Begins won't make $110 million in its first FIVE days. And expect a 2nd weekend drop of around 60-65% |
|
| Author: | Joker's Thug #3 [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Dr. Lecter wrote: I am pretty certain that Batman Begins won't make $110 million in its first FIVE days. And expect a 2nd weekend drop of around 60-65% |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Killuminati510 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I am pretty certain that Batman Begins won't make $110 million in its first FIVE days. And expect a 2nd weekend drop of around 60-65% I am not banking on that. The movie looks good, really good. But X2 was amazing as well and it didn't help its legs either. Don't come along with the Matrix Reloaded argument as War of the Worlds will hurt Batman no less than The Matrix Reloaded hurt X2. Both were in their 3rd week. X2 was the sequel to a well-beloved movie, it was an estabilished franhcie. Batman needs to be re-estabilished first. Despite all their efforts, people see it as a sequel to Batman & Robin. Not exactly the estabilishment it needs. X2 was the first big opener of the summer and yet failed to make $90 million over three days and barely hit the 2.5 multiplier, I believe. Batman has always been know for being fronloaded, so expect a 2.5 multiplier for it, or worse. Besides that, X2 was rather light entertainment, whereas Batman Begins is a darker, more ambitious movie. The Matrix Reloaded was moreover R-rated, War of the Worlds is PG-13, targeting Batman's fans directly. 5 day? I expect around $95-105 million. It should make around $20 million on its first day, slipping to $14-15 million on its second and make $60-65 million over the weekend. I don't see why this one should perform immensly better than MiB2, POTC and Terminator 3. |
|
| Author: | Box [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Dr. Lecter wrote: I don't see why this one should perform immensly better than MiB2, POTC and Terminator 3. Because I said so. Now shut up and go with the flow. J/k. Em, I actually agree with you, somewhat. I can see this easily making less than half of what I predicted, it's not impossible. However, I have to say, given the boring summer we're having, and the relative lack of good choices, people might just give it a try. I mean, what really is there that audiences during those 2 weeks will be able to pick from? :???: |
|
| Author: | zingy [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
There's going to be, like, no competition that weekend. Sith and The Longest Yard will both be under $20 million. Madagascar has no effect. And, Mr. and Mrs. Smith will probably be frontloaded and make most of its money the first weekend. But, even if it isn't, there's room for both that and Begins to co-exist. I'm thinking a 3-day around $65-70 million, and a 5-day around $105-110 million. |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Ivan K wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I don't see why this one should perform immensly better than MiB2, POTC and Terminator 3. Em, I actually agree with you, somewhat. I can see this easily making less than half of what I predicted, it's not impossible. However, I have to say, given the boring summer we're having, and the relative lack of good choices, people might just give it a try. I mean, what really is there that audiences during those 2 weeks will be able to pick from? :???: No, I think it will just remain a sad fact that the summer is INDEED nderwhelming this year. |
|
| Author: | Box [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Dr. Lecter wrote: No, I think it will just remain a sad fact that the summer is INDEED underwhelming this year. VERY. Most importantly, there don't seem to be the "small" films like F 9/11 that come out of nowhere and make a lot of money. I mean, we have Crash, but Crash is no F9/11. And we also had Spidey with its $373m. WOWT is no WOTW... Bad summer. :???: |
|
| Author: | Joker's Thug #3 [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Dr. Lecter wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I am pretty certain that Batman Begins won't make $110 million in its first FIVE days. And expect a 2nd weekend drop of around 60-65% I am not banking on that. The movie looks good, really good. But X2 was amazing as well and it didn't help its legs either. Don't come along with the Matrix Reloaded argument as War of the Worlds will hurt Batman no less than The Matrix Reloaded hurt X2. Both were in their 3rd week. X2 was the sequel to a well-beloved movie, it was an estabilished franhcie. Batman needs to be re-estabilished first. Despite all their efforts, people see it as a sequel to Batman & Robin. Not exactly the estabilishment it needs. X2 was the first big opener of the summer and yet failed to make $90 million over three days and barely hit the 2.5 multiplier, I believe. Batman has always been know for being fronloaded, so expect a 2.5 multiplier for it, or worse. Besides that, X2 was rather light entertainment, whereas Batman Begins is a darker, more ambitious movie. The Matrix Reloaded was moreover R-rated, War of the Worlds is PG-13, targeting Batman's fans directly. 5 day? I expect around $95-105 million. It should make around $20 million on its first day, slipping to $14-15 million on its second and make $60-65 million over the weekend. I don't see why this one should perform immensly better than MiB2, POTC and Terminator 3. |
|
| Author: | Box [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Btw, what do you guys think of Mr and Mrs Smith being the big hit, like, $150-155m? I really hope so. Angelina needs a hit badly [-o< |
|
| Author: | Joker's Thug #3 [ Thu May 26, 2005 5:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Ivan K wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I don't see why this one should perform immensly better than MiB2, POTC and Terminator 3. Em, I actually agree with you, somewhat. I can see this easily making less than half of what I predicted, it's not impossible. However, I have to say, given the boring summer we're having, and the relative lack of good choices, people might just give it a try. I mean, what really is there that audiences during those 2 weeks will be able to pick from? :???: |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu May 26, 2005 8:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Killuminati510 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I am pretty certain that Batman Begins won't make $110 million in its first FIVE days. And expect a 2nd weekend drop of around 60-65% I am not banking on that. The movie looks good, really good. But X2 was amazing as well and it didn't help its legs either. Don't come along with the Matrix Reloaded argument as War of the Worlds will hurt Batman no less than The Matrix Reloaded hurt X2. Both were in their 3rd week. X2 was the sequel to a well-beloved movie, it was an estabilished franhcie. Batman needs to be re-estabilished first. Despite all their efforts, people see it as a sequel to Batman & Robin. Not exactly the estabilishment it needs. X2 was the first big opener of the summer and yet failed to make $90 million over three days and barely hit the 2.5 multiplier, I believe. Batman has always been know for being fronloaded, so expect a 2.5 multiplier for it, or worse. Besides that, X2 was rather light entertainment, whereas Batman Begins is a darker, more ambitious movie. The Matrix Reloaded was moreover R-rated, War of the Worlds is PG-13, targeting Batman's fans directly. 5 day? I expect around $95-105 million. It should make around $20 million on its first day, slipping to $14-15 million on its second and make $60-65 million over the weekend. I don't see why this one should perform immensly better than MiB2, POTC and Terminator 3. I think it will be very VERY frontloaded. And it won't make $105 million in five days. It'll be closer to $95 million than that. It is possible that it "only" makes $90 million in five days. ROTS' darkness has not much to do with its success. |
|
| Author: | zingy [ Thu May 26, 2005 8:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Ivan K wrote: Btw, what do you guys think of Mr and Mrs Smith being the big hit, like, $150-155m? I really hope so. Angelina needs a hit badly [-o< I think so. It's the most "fun" looking action flick this summer. I could see a total over $130 million. |
|
| Author: | DP07 [ Fri May 27, 2005 6:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Zingaling wrote: Ivan K wrote: Btw, what do you guys think of Mr and Mrs Smith being the big hit, like, $150-155m? I really hope so. Angelina needs a hit badly [-o< I think so. It's the most "fun" looking action flick this summer. I could see a total over $130 million. I agree. Until the past couple weeks I thought it might bomb, but I've become much more optimistic. The reaction to the trailers has been better then expected, and the advertising has picked up and gotten better. |
|
| Page 1 of 2 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|