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Can ROTS earn less for the 2nd weekend then on opening day?
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Author:  DP07 [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Can ROTS earn less for the 2nd weekend then on opening day?
Here is an interesting thread topic that someone else suggested to me. Will the film join the many other frontloaded flicks to have more in the first day then on the second weekend? The Hulk, The Matrix Revolutions, AVP, The Ring Two, and Freddy Vs. Jason are just a few examples.

Personally I have the same prediction for each: 41m, so, I'm undecided.

While it does have Memorial Day weekend, competition will be tough, and less appeal to families should hurt the legs.

Meanwhile, the opening day should be relatively stronger with a release in 3,700 theaters.

50m+ openers with similar numbers on opening day and the second weekend. Ranked by percentage of the second weekend's gross relative to the opening day.

Hulk -- 77.61%
The Village -- 80.80%
The Matrix Reloaded -- 86.82%
Harry Potter 3 -- 91.23%
2 Fast 2 Furious -- 94.99%
8 Mile -- 98.82%
Van Helsing -- 106.19%
Spider-man 2 -- 111.72%
Planet of the Apes -- 111.88%
X-Men -- 112.91%
Austin Powers in Goldmember -- 117.64%
Jurassic Park III -- 118.49%
The Day After Tomorrow -- 118.57%
I, Robot -- 120.23%
Scooby Doo -- 127.45%
X2 -- 128.11%

So, where will ROTS fall?
Author:  MovieDude [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
If it's true that it's getting 4,000 theaters, I really t hink that there's a good chance. These screen counts are massive and next week Madagascar and The Longest Yard will take a HUUUGE chunk out of those excess screens. Right now I'm thinking a 45 million opening day, and as I'm thinking that the weekend will be just slightly more then that, it's definitely possible.
Author:  BJ [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
:roll:

not a chance, this film will easily top its opening day in its second wknd.
Author:  zingy [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
There's a chance if it's mega-frontloaded. Personally, I'm thinking a $45 million opening day, and a $53-54 million second weekend.
Author:  andaroo1 [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
MovieDude wrote:
If it's true that it's getting 4,000 theaters, I really t hink that there's a good chance. These screen counts are massive and next week Madagascar and The Longest Yard will take a HUUUGE chunk out of those excess screens. Right now I'm thinking a 45 million opening day, and as I'm thinking that the weekend will be just slightly more then that, it's definitely possible.

MovieDude, I thought Fox gets agreements for no screen droppage for 2 weeks?

I disagree about the screens too. There is a lot of stuff that they would pull out of the theaters before pulling screens for Sith.
Author:  scottb [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
andaroo wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
If it's true that it's getting 4,000 theaters, I really t hink that there's a good chance. These screen counts are massive and next week Madagascar and The Longest Yard will take a HUUUGE chunk out of those excess screens. Right now I'm thinking a 45 million opening day, and as I'm thinking that the weekend will be just slightly more then that, it's definitely possible.

MovieDude, I thought Fox gets agreements for no screen droppage for 2 weeks?

I disagree about the screens too. There is a lot of stuff that they would pull out of the theaters before pulling screens for Sith.


AOTC had a four week agreement though it had fewer screens.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
andaroo wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
If it's true that it's getting 4,000 theaters, I really t hink that there's a good chance. These screen counts are massive and next week Madagascar and The Longest Yard will take a HUUUGE chunk out of those excess screens. Right now I'm thinking a 45 million opening day, and as I'm thinking that the weekend will be just slightly more then that, it's definitely possible.

MovieDude, I thought Fox gets agreements for no screen droppage for 2 weeks?

I disagree about the screens too. There is a lot of stuff that they would pull out of the theaters before pulling screens for Sith.


There is an agreement not to drop theaters, but not screens.
Author:  andaroo1 [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
I see... thanks for the clarification.
Author:  MovieDude [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
andaroo wrote:
MovieDude wrote:
If it's true that it's getting 4,000 theaters, I really t hink that there's a good chance. These screen counts are massive and next week Madagascar and The Longest Yard will take a HUUUGE chunk out of those excess screens. Right now I'm thinking a 45 million opening day, and as I'm thinking that the weekend will be just slightly more then that, it's definitely possible.

MovieDude, I thought Fox gets agreements for no screen droppage for 2 weeks?

I disagree about the screens too. There is a lot of stuff that they would pull out of the theaters before pulling screens for Sith.


There is an agreement not to drop theaters, but not screens.


Correct. They have to keep it in all the theaters, but they just won't be keeping the massive amounts of sceens, which I think it's getting now because of such a weak slate otherwise. It'll give them a HUGE opening they couldn't have gotten otherwise (it's on 22 screens opening day on a 10 screener, taking up nearly half the total screens! Even more amazingly, it's playing on three of the four screens at the Broadway Metroplex :shock: ). I expect it to go from four or five to two, maybe three screens, as Madagascar and The Longest Yard will both get at least two each. Having that many shows will SERIOUSLY inflate the opening, it could possibly make 120 million three days and 165 milion four day, but that will just mean that it could purge up to 70% first to second four day weekend.
Author:  MGKC [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
My thoughts:

-Its opening day will be more than half of its 3-day weekend

-It will not have a weekend drop under 44% for more than 4 weeks

-Its 4-day total will be a little less than half of its total gross

-It will NOT make 300 million
Author:  Box [ Mon May 16, 2005 10:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Preposterous! Outrageous! Who was the sexy hunk who suggested this to you???? Was it Rod??? I knew it! It's always Rod! Rod and Zingaling! I blame Zingaling [-X



That being said (*takes sigh of relief*), I have to say that I think it's very much possible. Not because the film will perform badly, but because it will have such an amazing opening day.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue May 17, 2005 4:59 am ]
Post subject: 
I updated the first post with examples of blockbusters to have a 2nd weekend similar to the opening day gross. :wink:
Author:  Anonymous [ Tue May 17, 2005 6:14 am ]
Post subject: 
It's possible...but I just can't see it's opening day to be $88m. ;)
Author:  MadGez [ Tue May 17, 2005 7:13 am ]
Post subject: 
Depends whether you mean 3 day or 4 day second weekend?

If say it does $45 opening day - I can see it doing no less than about $55m on its second 4 day weekend. Its possible but unlikely.
Even then - its a shoo in for $300m atleast.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue May 17, 2005 8:06 am ]
Post subject: 
I mean 3 day second weekend.
Author:  scottb [ Tue May 17, 2005 6:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
I updated the first post with examples of blockbusters to have a 2nd weekend similar to the opening day gross. :wink:


Thanks for the list. But I notice no Star Wars films on it. :wink:
Author:  Box [ Tue May 17, 2005 6:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
scottb wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I updated the first post with examples of blockbusters to have a 2nd weekend similar to the opening day gross. :wink:


Thanks for the list. But I notice no Star Wars films on it. :wink:



That's because the film isn't out yet :wink:









:razz: :wink:
Author:  scottb [ Tue May 17, 2005 6:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ivan K wrote:
scottb wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I updated the first post with examples of blockbusters to have a 2nd weekend similar to the opening day gross. :wink:


Thanks for the list. But I notice no Star Wars films on it. :wink:



That's because the film isn't out yet :wink:









:razz: :wink:


Well there have been five others before and two of them opened over $50 million.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue May 17, 2005 8:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
scottb wrote:
Ivan K wrote:
scottb wrote:
DP07 wrote:
I updated the first post with examples of blockbusters to have a 2nd weekend similar to the opening day gross. :wink:


Thanks for the list. But I notice no Star Wars films on it. :wink:



That's because the film isn't out yet :wink:









:razz: :wink:


Well there have been five others before and two of them opened over $50 million.


This didn't become common until 2003. All the films on the list are since 1999, and most are from 2002-2004. So, before that it was rare for films to even be within 30% of the opening day on the second weekend. Of the ones under the 100% mark, all were released after AOTC. It's difficult to compare a film from now to those that opened even 3 years ago with the way frontloading has increased. Comparisions to 20 years ago are not really possible whatsoever. :wink:

Each SW film has been more frontloaded then the one before it. That's the case with just about every franchise. So, if the trend continues we could see it happen. :wink:
Author:  scottb [ Tue May 17, 2005 9:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think if it makes that list it will be at the bottom of it around X2.
Author:  DP07 [ Thu May 26, 2005 6:25 am ]
Post subject: 
Is there anyone else to join?

Before I thought there was a 50% chance, but with the Thursday gross being a higher percentage of the 4 day weekend then I expected, I now that it is more likely then not to fall short of 50m.
Author:  Bodrul [ Thu May 26, 2005 6:48 am ]
Post subject: 
It will make over $50m, not by much though
Author:  baumer72 [ Thu May 26, 2005 10:33 am ]
Post subject: 
It will make at least 65 mill second weeke3nd.
Author:  choubachou [ Thu May 26, 2005 12:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
It'll be close, but I think it'll do a little over $50M.
Author:  Rev [ Thu May 26, 2005 12:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
I forgot what i predicted for it's 2nd weekend but i know it's more then $50mill.
so yes it'll do more then it's opening day easily.
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