Dr. Lecter wrote: Now the summer has been off to a slow start, but I think that this year's Memorial Day's Weekend will have a huge bang in store for us.
It'll be the opening weekend for Dreamworks' latest animated feature, Madagascar and the newest Adam Sandler starrer The Longest Yard. Moreover, it'll be the second weekend of what aims to become the year's highest-grossing movie, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith.
In the history of box-office we've experiences some occasions when five movies made $20+ million over a weekend. We've also experienced occasions on which three movies made more than $25 million on a weekend and occasions on which two movies made more than $65 million on a weekend (last year's The Day after Tomorrow opening wekend and Shrek 2's second weekend).
We have never had a weekend on which three movies made $30+ million. Considering the pedigree of these three movies, I would say, that it is close to a lock that this will happen.
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith is guaranteed a $40+ million second weekend. AOTC made it, The Phantom Menace made it, so why shouldn't ROTS make it? It'll amsot certainly make $90+ million over 3-days, so even with a 45% drop, it'll make well above $40 million in its 2nd weekend.
Madagascar is the summer's BIG CGI animated flick. Robots has been some of a disappointment, but it still opened to $35 million. This one has a much better trailer, better marketing, it will open in 4,000+ theatres since it's Dreamworks and it has the "From the makers of Shrek and Shrek 2" going for it. It will most likely open to $60+ million, so $40+ million is absolutely guaranteed.
The Longest Yard is the least certain of the three, but let's face it. It's a full-blown Adam Sandler comedy flick. Let's look at his recent openings:
Spanglish - $8,817,853
50 Fist Dates - $39,852,237
Anger Management - $42,220,847
Mr. Deeds - $37,162,787
Little Nicky - $16,063,904
Big Daddy - $41,536,370
The Waterboy - $39,414,071
His only low openings were when he went against his usual "type" like Spanglish. Little Nicky just didn't look good at all and wasn't marketed any well. These two aside, out of his five last wide openers made $37-42 million in their opening weekend. I think you see a pattern. One of the most comparable flicks is probably The Waterboy since it deals with football as well. Sports movies are always successful, but a sports movie with Adam Sandler is almost a guarantee for box-office gold. Besides that, it's a holiday weekend, so that will boost the gross even more.
The Longest Yard will probably open in at least 3,400 theatres, maybe even more and I don't see why it shouldn't get in the area of Sandler's usual openings. The competition will be huge from SW: ROTS and Madagascar, but this one has a niché of its own. I think due to the huge competition, it probably won't make $40 million, but will get around $35-38 million over the weekend.
So, all in all, there is a decent chance that three movies will make $40+ million over that weekend and it is close to a lock that three will make $30+ million, something that hasn't ever happened before either.
At the moment, I'd predict:
1. Madagascar - $68 million
2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $50 million
3. The Longest Yard - $37 million
What do you think? Will we have three $40+ million grossers that weekend or just three $30+ million grossers?
Dude, I'm gonna be as honest as I possibly can with you: Yes, it is an Adam Sandler movie and Yes, he has had very good luck with his movies in the past box office wise, However, Longest Yard is going to be singlehandedly destroyed at the box office in SITH's 2nd week and pretty much any movie in it's path til BATMAN BEGINS comes out.. You heard it here 1st..
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