I've seen some serious overestimating for this film (and I use the word film lightly) going on, and this thread is my plea to the people overpredicting, in hopes that they'll lower their predictions for this soon to be turkey. Please, by all means, present your case to me. I want to know why you truely believe in these 20+ million predictions, and I promise to keep an open mind, but I am also going to present point after point why it's gonna be a lot more like 10-15 million, and I hope that you see the logic in my analysis. If you can convince me, I promise I will support your opinion as my own. I don't think that you'll be able to, so I hope that you carefully consider what I have to say, because I don't want anybody kicking themselves over this.

First, we've just had The Ring 2, and The Amityville Horror released since March 18th. It's overkill with a genre that the market isn't very friendly to in the first place. People are burned out on bad horror movies, and they are ready for some summer fun. To emphasize the bad with House of Wax, here are two reviews, both from prominent trade publications.

The Hollywood Reporter

"Characters are rote and unremarkable, plot devices predictable and the camera cheats by sticking close to actors so a viewer cannot see from where the next shock will come."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/re ... 1000895428

Variety

" The characters are about as intelligent as their waxen alter-egos, making it impossible to care too much about what happens to them."

http://www.variety.com/index.asp?layout ... ID=31&cs=1

Paris Hilton is not going to draw people out. She's not a box office draw, and seeing her die is not going to get people to endure a bad movie or pay outrageous prices for tickets and concessions. The Jennifer Garner "lesbian kiss" in Elektra was something everybody wanted to see, too, but they all waited for the DVD. It didn't help the box office at all. Paris Hilton's death scene won't either.

I posted these lists in the predictions thread, but here are the most viewed previews from both yahoo and comingsoon.net...

Yahoo

1. X3: X-Men 3
2. Superman Returns
3. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith
4. Batman Begins
5. Spider-Man 3
6. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
7. Kingdom of Heaven
8. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest
9. The Flash
10. Iron Man
11. Transformers
12. Fantastic Four
13. Die Hard 4.0
14. Rocky VI
15. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
16. Scary Movie 4
17. Casino Royale
18. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
19. Crash
20. George A. Romero's Land of the Dead

It's less than a week before the opening, and both Kingdom of Heaven and Crash, the other May 6th openers, are present, but House of Wax is missing in action. Where is the interest?

comingsoon.net

1. Batman Begins
2. Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith
3. Superman Returns
4. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
5. George A. Romero's Land of the Dead
6. Serenity
7. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
8. Flightplan
9. Kingdom of Heaven
10. Ghost Rider
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
12. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
13. War of the Worlds
14. X-Men 3
15. The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D
16. House of Wax
17. High Tension
18. XXX: State of the Union
19. Unleashed
20. The League of Gentlemen's Apocalypse
21. Crash
22. Must Love Dogs
23. Fantastic Four
24. Sky High
25. Jimini Glick in La La Wood

All three of the May 6th releases are accounted for at #9, #16, and #21. I would trust yahoo to be a better gauge, but even this list doesn't speak to much interest. It's #16? Big frickin' whoop... At least it's on one of the lists.

I'll keep trying to talk you guys down, as I don't want to see any overestimating like what happened with xXx 2, but I would seriously love to hear your counter points. Try to make a believer out of me if you believe House of Wax will gross that much.

Don't quote his entire post! It was long, the first post, and we can read. (well most of us)

I haven't even begun to predict House of Wax, but then again, I don't care about it.. I see your point on the horror overload and whatnot, but Amityville, like it or not, is doing surprisingly well for a movie like this and the rating it has after 3 weeks and for many reasons I've already mentioned a 100 times over.. If I had to guess and the fact this is geared obviously more toward the teen market VS what Amityville was, even though both are R-Rated, I'd say 15 Million for House of Wax for the weekend.. That's not to bad is it Mav?? I mean, it is gonna make some $$$ even if it has Paris Hilton in it..

First of all, did you really expect the reviews to be glorious? I don't recall one horror movie this year that topped 30% on RT. It's a genre that's destined for bad reviews. However, House of Wax is getting good reviews among the horror websites, which no other horror movie this year has not.

Dread Central

Bloody-Disgusting

Reviews aside, you're also looking at the wrong charts, too. A poll at comingsoon.net? That doesn't determine buzz. :razz:

Provided by xiayun in the House of Wax thread, here's some info.



Here's the charts for everyone to see...

Most Searched Movies on Yahoo

1. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
2. xXx: State of the Union
3. Episode III
4. House of Wax
5. The Interpreter
6. Kung-Fu Hustle
7. The Amityville Horror
8. A Lot Like Love
9. Sin City
10. Crash

Most Watched Trailers

1. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
2. XXX: State of the Union
3. George A. Romero's Land of the Dead
4. House of Wax
5. The Amityville Horror
6. Kingdom of Heaven
7. Monster-in-Law
8. Kung Fu Hustle
9. Batman Begins
10. The Interpreter
11. Sin City
12. A Lot Like Love
13. War of the Worlds
14. Crash
15. Sahara
16. Unleashed
17. Fever Pitch
18. The Longest Yard
19. Robots
20. Guess Who

Yahoo Movies Buzz List - House of Wax (currently #10)

(Both Crash and Kingdom of Heaven are missing from that list.)

I hope I made a believer out of you atleast a little bit. House of Wax should clear $15 million with ease.

I have to side with Maverikk on this one, at least partly. I believe that most of the internet buzz for this movie is existant because of Hilton in this movie. That doesn't necessarily mean that the same people will go out and see the movie. I think many just download the trailer to see a glimpse of her "acting", just for a laugh. She is big in the online world, but it doesn't mean that those people will watch the actual movie. I am pretty sure that trailers for Catwoman and Gigli were downloaded pretty often as well, just out of curiosity.

Moreover, you have to think of the difference between most horror movies released this year so far and House of Wax. The Amityville Horror, The Ring Two, Hide and Seek and White Noise appealed to adults as well as to teenagers. House of Wax seems like a typical teenie slasher which will hurt the demographics. Besides that, with Crash and Kingdom of Heaven released the same weekend, there is no chance that adults will be checking out this one next weekend. Remember the last horror movie that had its target audience limited to mostly teens? It was Cursed...And that was even PG-13 while House of Wax is R.

Paris Hilton might be popular, but she's certainly not well-liked. I doubt many will want to endure her in a movie, just to see her seconds-long death scene. Elisha Cuthbert proved that she's not a draw with The Girl Next Door. The rest of the cast isn't worth mentioning.

Think other Dark Castle flicks. Thirteen Ghosts and House on Haunted Hill weren't much different concept-wise and they opened to $15 million, Ghost Ship opened to $11 million. I don't see why this one should do any better. Paris Hilton is, indeed, a turn-off to many. Dark Castle's most successful to-date was Gothika and that mostly thanks to Halle Berry (remember, that movie came before Catwoman).

Besides that, there has really been a horror overload this year. If it wasn't for that overkill, The Amityville Horror would have opened close to $30 million. I really don't think people are in the mood for another horror flick.
Having said that, I estimate around 3,100 theatres for House of Wax and an opening of around $14.5-15 million with bad legs and a total of around $35 million.

Bingo! =D>

Is it odd that I am just noticing what a great poster you are? Or maybe now that school is over you just have so much leftove brain power

Lecter, the very fact that this IS "typical teenie slasher" is whats going to make it a hit.
There hasn't been a teen slasher like this for a very long time. The slasher genre has all but been replaced with bad thrillers and creepy Japanese terrorist children; people miss the horror comedy genre where everything is done tounge in cheek and the audience cheers at a murder rather than screams. And this coming from a big fan of Japanese Horror; its time for a revival of the All American Gorefest.

Wax has a Scream quality about it; its marketing has been the most exceptional for any horror of the year IMHO and if people dont love the teen stars; theyd go to see em die. A guilty pleasure indeed.

The suggestion this film is buzzing because of Paris Hilton is far fetched to say the least; shes an internet star? Really? Aside from the cheap porn video that people OFFLINE also saw I dont see anything tying Paris Hiltons stardom to the internet. Sure shes a star of the movie; but its not like the world and its brother would go see a Hilton movie..

So i pretty much disagree with the parent poster of this thread and Dr Lecter. Wax has been buzzing for a long time; and if anything i think its being sorely underpredicted. But maybe thats just me; im willing to take a chance on films from time to time and this is one of them.

You disagree with my box-office prediction: What a susprise =D>

Cursed has been marketed as being directly from the makers of Scream, the mother of all teenie-slashers. Apparently that marketing didn't help much.

You don't see what is tying Paris Hilton to the net? Say wha? Have you tried typing "Paris Hilton" into Google? I'll give you some stats:

Elisha Cuthbert - 850,000 hits
Sarah Michelle Gellar - 1,900,000 hits
Jennifer Garner - 2,160,000 hits
Halle Berry - 3,480,000
Christina Aguilera - 9,190,000
Jennifer Lopez - 9,300,000 hits
Paris Hilton - 11,900,000


I'd say that's more than remarkable, eh?

Scream had originality and "never seen before" factor going for it. The sequels were successful because of the great predecessor (original Scream opened to $6 million, while the first sequel opened to $30+ million). Movies like Urban Legend and I know what you did Last Summer could ride on the Scream wave to success. But eventually, the overkill destroyed the genre with outings like Urban Legends 2: Final Cut and Valentine.

There has been a small revival last year with your so-beloved ( ) The Texas Chainsaw Massacre. That, however, didn't have any participants that would turn off viewers in it, it had a great trailer (which even won the best trailer prize in some trailer awards back then) and it was released around Halloween, in a year that didn't have much horror overkill at all. In the end a horror movie will be perceived as nothing else than a horror movie. People won't distinguish between it being a simple horror movoie or a slasher, something they haven't seen lately. I am a huge horror fan and I am not even sure yet if I'll see House of Wax because I despise Paris Hilton. I am pretty sure I am not in a minority. The movie makes it very clear that she stars in the movie, it even seems that in the advertising she overshadows other members of the cast. Not a wise move.

No, now that's school's over, I can actually activate my brain

It will make good numbers but won't be as big as most are expecting.

Paris Hilton dies. That's one huge reason I'm going, another is that I like slashers.

My brother and his friends are going sometime this weekend, also, just to see Paris die.

For once I agree with Mav, its like having peace in Israel. The people kept bringing up the argument that people want to see it to see Paris die but who are the real suckers here to shell out their money to make the star's movie even bigger and whos getting the last laugh

I see on those two charts XXX is in the top 3 spot but look what happened to it :razz:

Maybe if it was a snuff film with Paris ACTUALLY being killed off, it'd become a hit

Scream had a "never seen before" factor going for it? Wasn't the point of Scream to subtly spoof all the teenage slashers of the 80s? Never seen before? Its whole point was that you HAD seen this movie before. It deconstructed those rules and played with them. The last prominent slashers were quite some time ago; House of Wax hails back to the same OTT corniness that made these movies fun to watch. I know ill be there on opening weekend

Are we even watching the same trailer? Sure its widely known Hilton stars in the movie but its not like Jay Leno will announce it as "Paris Hiltons new movie".

Elisha Cuthberth is on the same fame stratosphere as Neve Campbell was before Scream started; its got real potential to break out; wether the audiences will give it that liberty or not will take time to determine.

Looks terrible. Doesn't have a good marketing poster, and isn't a remake of a classic. I haven't noticed people responding all that well to the trailer. Most people won't caugh up the ten bucks just cause Paris plays the dumb blonde that gets picked off first. Follewed by a guy, followed by another guy, with the brunette girl being the only one to make it through the night (If there's a third guy, he makes it too...but with injuries). A new horror release every weekend will also water down the urgency of the fan base.

This one will get 12 million opening weekend. That's it.

You guys, I just saw a horror film at Tribeca which will be out soon and would be happy to make that much, even though its probably miles better. Ah well.

What film?

Yes, of course that was Scream point and in that it did what no movie has done before. Scream has one of the best scripts (if not the best) for a horror film/horror-thriller that I know of. House of Wax is simple straight-forward slashing 'n killin'




House of Wax is not and will never be another Scream. None of Dark Castle's movies has been overall beloved or "broke out". What makes you think that this one, after four of their efforts, will break the trend?

And I am not talking the trailer only. The trailer doesn't play the only crucial role in marketing the movie. It's also TV advertising and publicity the cast makes for the movie and this movie is heavily advertising the "See Paris Die" angle, moreso than the movie itself. I mean, really, once someone mentions that movie Hilton is pretty much the first thing that comes into one's mind.

=D>

Not exactly. XXX2 has just moved up the chart during the weekend, including at moviefone, and it's still missing from one buzz list, and it's a very bad sign when people only started to notice a film the day it opened. The earlier a movie pops up in these charts, the better the chance that it will be successful, and at this point, House of Wax doesn't look to be a disappointment. It's tracking better than a lot of horror movies this year. The system has done quite well recently. Sin City was doing great leading up to its release, making me believe that people were underestimating it, while XXX2 had one of the weakest signs ever last week (the moviefone one was really telling), indicating the potential magnitude of its crash. I'll continue monitoring the charts as always, and if House of Wax starts to recede, then it'll have problem since it means people are only searching for Paris Hilton, only happens to click into the movie's page, and they are not interested in seeing the film. However, if its name pops up on moviefone's list again tomorrow, then we have to consider it to be a serious threat this weekend.

Opening 3 R-rated films on the same weekend is a risky proposition, and it'll be interesting to see the relative strength of one another among them.

Meh. I tend to agree with Mav and Lecter the most concerning HOW box office potential, but I think the film looks great in a ridiculously kitschy sort of way. I also think Michael makes's a good point about there being a total lack of slasher film's on the market the last couple of years. You guys are saying that the horror genre is burnt out or whatever, but I think it's mainly the PG13-watered-down-trash-genre that is burned out. I mean, look at the recent uber-success of The Amityville Horror, for example. Horror films are almost pre-disposed to be box office hits because of the built in rabid fanbase surrounding them. You know you've done something really, really wrong if your horror film is a full out bomb (Cursed, for example).

Also, Zing makes a great point about this being the first horror film released this year to be fully embraced by the online horror community. That is a huge aspect to a modern horror film's success.

However, with all of this said, I still think HOW is going to go under $20 million this weekend. Too much competition, and I honestly believe the fact that Paris Hilton is in it is going to backfire before it helps it anyway.

That I would pay for. =D>

Anyway I will not support this garbage with my money. :wink:

I rekon between $10M and $20M.

If it's on over 3,000 theatres, it only needs a $3,400 pta to reach $10M. CURSED got more than that.


Plus, even if it grosses less than $15M this weekend, it's STILL going to be another horror hit.

It cost around $20/25M.

If it tops $30M finish, it's bang on with DARK CASTLES' tracking.

Dr Lector, what are you smoking? Paris Hilton gets 3.4 million hits on Google, and not the 10 million you claim.

She gets

8,940,000 last time i checked.

I can see it doing better than both Crash and Kingdom of heaven....


:wink: